Posts Tagged ‘Elections’
France : A surprise victory and a reprieve from the Rassemblement National (RN)
Photothèque Rouge / Martin Noda / Hans Lucas
Source :
France : A surprise victory and a reprieve from the RN
The Nouveau Front populaire (New Popular Front), a coalition built in just a few days by the left-wing parties (whereas they remained splintered at the recent European parliamentary elections), has just won 182 deputy seats in the French National Assembly, beating the Rassemblement national (RN) and its allies, with 143 seats, and the camp of President Macron with 168 seats.
This is a spectacular reversal of the situation meaning we have gone from the threat of a far-right stranglehold on the state apparatus to a relative left-wing majority in the Assembly, elected on a programme of rupture with neoliberal policies. This reversal cannot be understood without looking at the massive mobilisation in recent weeks of the activist forces of the workers’ and democratic movement in the face of the far right, leading first to the formation of this New Popular Front (with la France insoumise (LFI), Europe Ecologie Les Verts (EELV), the Socialist Party (PS), the Communist Party (PCF) and others including the Nouveau parti anticapitaliste (NPA)), then to a major mobilisation at the ballot box and a very broadly supported vote to reject the RN.
Following on from its 31.34% result in the European elections on 9 June, the RN obtained more than 33% of the vote in the first round of legislative elections on 30 June, and everything suggested that it would obtain a very large number of deputies in the second round, with all the polls giving it well over 200 deputies and possibly even an absolute majority of 289 seats.
Read the rest of this entry »France : The far right has been pushed back by popular mobilization – now we must implement the programme of the New Popular Front – Nouveau Parti Anticapitaliste (NPA)
A great result for the left from France, July 7 2024. The NPA’s reactions is below :
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Far right pushed back by popular mobilization – implement programme of New Popular Front- NPA
The main lesson of the first results of this second round is the setback suffered by the Rassemblement national and its allies. The defeat of the hundreds of fascist, racist, Islamophobic, antisemitic and ultra-racist candidates put forward by the RN is a huge relief for racialized people, women, LGBTI+ people and workers. This victory for the united left has halted the momentum of the far right, which nonetheless won around fifty more seats. This defeat of the far right of Bardella and Le Pen is the fruit of the popular mobilization that took place thanks to the unitive impetus provided by the creation of the New Popular Front.
This is already a victory for the New Popular Front, which was made possible by the rallying of the entire left – political parties, trade unions and campaigning groups – , but also and above all by the grassroots mobilization of large sectors of the working classes, in particular racialized people and young people, who committed themselves everywhere to blocking the RN. This made it possible for a very large number of New Popular Front MPs (including a relative majority for LFI) to be elected to the National Assembly on the basis of a programme that breaks not only with Macronism in the service of the ultra-rich, but also with the liberal left of the Hollande mandate, which had followed the policies of the right.
Read the rest of this entry »British General Election 2024 – Highlights and Lowlights – Loveless Landslide, Sandcastle Majority. Far-Right Hiding in Plain Sight, House of Paisley Falls in Antrim – and a Message of Hope from new MP Shockat Adam, Leicester South
Let’s start with positive news :
Shockat Adam MP, Leicester South – “This is for the people of Gaza”.
When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.
Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :
Read the rest of this entry »The Irish Left Must Unite to break the old stranglehold – Paul Murphy TD (People Before Profit, Dublin South-West), Irish Times, July 4 2024
Paul Murphy’s opinion piece in the July 4 2024 edition of the Irish Times makes a strong case :
“Another five years of FF/FG rule would be disastrous for the country. Left parties and Independents must come together to stop it happening”
There is a bottom line :
No coalition with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
Time for a new united left alliance to topple Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael
Another five years of FF/FG rule would be disastrous for the country. Left parties and Independents must come together and stop this happening
A general election is looming. If the local election results are repeated, it will mean a return of this Government but with the Greens replaced as the third wheel by right-wing Independents. The 100-year rule of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will continue.
This would be a disaster.
Another five years of their rule would mean a deepening of the crises in housing and health, with more children growing up in emergency accommodation, more adults trapped in their childhood bedroom unable to move out, as well as growing hospital waiting lists. It would mean continued inaction on the climate and biodiversity crises and large numbers of workers in low-paid, precarious employment without the right to collectively bargain.
Read the rest of this entry »Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.
Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?
Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction
John Meehan June 27 2024
Sinn Féin Election Disaster – The Price Of Putting Popularity Before Principle – Éirigí Analysis
Éirigí, a socialist-republican organisation, “is a political party that was formed in 2006 by a group of Dublin-based community and political activists. We believe that modern Ireland is a deeply undemocratic, unequal and unfair country not by accident, but by design.” Their analysis of Sinn Féin’s unexpectedly weak showing in the June 7 2024 Irish Local and European Elections highlights how the party was bounced into changing its position on immigration and racism :
With a few notable exceptions, this new talking point was propagated without context – with no detailed critique of migration in the modern world – no attempt to explain why the asylum process is in chaos – no robust defence of the core republican principle of equality – no assertion that racism, sectarianism and xenophobia are the enemies of republicanism – no calling out the peddling of hate and division by the far-right.
For potential Sinn Féin voters, the lesson was clear. The party could be bounced into changing its messaging if there were votes at stake, even when those doing the bouncing were far-right bigots. It seems almost certain that the ease with which Sinn Féin was bounced on the issue of immigration did them more electoral damage than their actual position on immigration.
Sinn Féin Election Disaster – The Price Of Putting Popularity Before Principle
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Sinn Féin Election Disaster – The Price Of Putting Popularity Before Principle – Éirigí analysis
Two weeks have now passed since the Local and European elections in the Twenty-Six Counties. Despite Sinn Féin’s frantic spinning to the contrary, the election was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster for the party. The number of votes and seats secured by the party was even lower than the lowest expectations of pollsters, political commentators and Sinn Féin itself.
As recently as July 2022, support for Sinn Féin was at a level not seen in more than a century. The Irish Times/IPSOS opinion poll for that month found that 36% of voters in the Twenty-Six Counties intended to vote for Sinn Féin.
Fourteen months later, in September 2023, the same poll found that 34% still intended to vote for Sinn Féin. Among voters under the age of 34, support was even higher at more than 43%. Despite this, Sinn Féin secured less than 12% of the popular vote in the 2024 Local and European elections.
So, why have two-thirds of Sinn Féin supporters abandoned the party since last September?
Prior to elections the apparent answer to this question seemed obvious to many – immigration. Immigration, it was claimed, had recently become a red-hot issue for many Sinn Féin supporters., and these supporters were now walking away from Sinn Féin in their droves because the party was too ‘soft’ on immigration. It was an open and shut case. Until it wasn’t.
When the ballot boxes were opened on this day two weeks ago, it quickly became clear that the opinion polls had significantly underestimated the scale of Sinn Féin’s woes.
Read the rest of this entry »How well did the left go in the June 9 European election? – by Dick Nichols, Green Left (Australia)
A recommended article :
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How well did the left go in the June 9 European Election?
How well did the left go in the June 9 European election?
Provisional results of the 2024 European Elections, as at June 19. Source: results.elections.europa.eu
At first glance it looks as if the parties to the left of the social democracy held their ground against the surge of the far right and mainstream right that marked the June 9 European Union (EU) parliamentary elections (see here for results in detail).
Although the smallest of the European parliament’s seven groups, The Left managed to maintain its EU-wide vote at 5.4% and increase its seat tally from 37 to 39 in the 720-seat assembly.
In addition, left green Members of the European Parliaments (MEPs) and those representing stateless nations (part of the Greens group as the European Free Alliance) at least maintained their numbers in the chamber.
See also
Finland: Mass workers’ strike wave continues against gov’t attacks on workers, unions, welfare
Interview: Fascism and resistance in France today
Ukrainian unionists: Oligarchs, not Europe’s poor, should pay for weapons and aid to Ukraine
Workers’ Party of Belgium gains ground in European, national elections
Yet the Greens group as a whole shrank from 71 seats to 53 while that of the liberals (known as Renew) fell from 102 to 79. This drop reflected that the environmental issues that in part drove the big advance of these parties in the 2019 election were less important for many voters this time.
The campaign was dominated by insecurity about the future, the cost of living (particularly housing), the fear of war, the “immigration threat” and intolerance of difference.
In this grim atmosphere the biggest growth went to the mainstream right European People’s Party and the two far-right groups (Identity and Democracy and Conservatives and Reformists): taken together the right and far right won an extra 30 seats, bring it to 324.
Because it would take only 37 ungrouped MEPs to join them to from a reactionary majority, the June 9 result poses with new urgency two old questions about politics in the European parliament. How much, if at all, does the real balance of political forces in the chamber differ from that among its formal groupings? And how much does membership of a group represent disciplined commitment to its positions?
Left divisions over Ukraine
The questions are sharply relevant in the case of the Left group, where differences over what stance to take towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine were already pointing towards a split before June 9.
On May 31, Li Andersson, chairperson of the Finnish Left Alliance told the Helsinki Times that these differences could not be tolerated in the group in the new legislature. Referring to Clare Daly and Mick Wallace, Irish left independent opponents of military aid to Ukraine, Andersson said: “The Nordic Green Left as a whole [covering Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroe Islands] is of the opinion that if they manage to win re-election, they can’t join our group.”
For Andersson, the same went for the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance: For Reason and Justice (BSW), a split in Germany from leading Left group member Die Linke (The Left). BSW opposes military aid to Ukraine and supports resuming the gas trade with Russia, in common with most of Europe’s far-right parties.
Read the rest of this entry »“Sinn Féin’s disaster was the standout story of the weekend’s count” – Cedar Lounge Revolution Blog starts important discussion
Overall, the June 7 2024 Local and European elections in the 26 County bit of Ireland were good news for the ruling coalition elected in February 2020. The Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Greens plus Gombeens (FFFGGG) combination scored an important victory, setting them up for a possible return to the seat of government in Dublin’s Leinster House in less than 12 months, when a new general election must happen.
Even worse, due to ominous rising support for Gombeen currents (primarily the Independent Ireland [II]) party and extreme racists, FFFG might be able to dump the Greens and rule on their own – or coalesce with the II gombeens and other toxic racist-right populists.
Read the rest of this entry »Finnish Left Alliance Chairperson Li Andersson says Clare Daly and Mick Wallace “parrot” Putin’s propaganda against Ukraine – and should be denied membership of the Left group in the new Euro-Parliament (if elected)
Current Irish Member of the European parliament Clare Daly has lost her seat in the Dublin constituency.
Link :
Clare Daly loses Euro-Seat, June 11 2024
Daly and Mick Wallace were part of the left group in the last parliament, but the chairperson of the Left Alliance (Finland) disagrees strongly with the Wallace-Daly Ukraine policy.
Li Andersson, Chairperson of the Finnish Left Alliance, says Daly and Wallace parroted Putin’s propaganda :
Andersson said MEPs Clare Daly and Mick Wallace from Ireland, two fierce critics of support for Ukraine, can no longer sit with The Left. Despite also parroting Russian propaganda and seeking to torpedo resolutions on Russia, and seeking to torpedo resolutions on Russia, Daly and Wallace have been allowed to continue as members of The Left.
In Finland, the Left Alliance won big in the European parliament elections :
Finland’s results in the European election bucked a continent-wide trend of rising support for parties on the outer fringe of right-wing politics, with the Left Alliance and the National Coalition winning big at the expense of the nationalist Finns Party. Leftist leader Li Andersson received more votes than any other candidate has ever received in a European election. By 8:34pm, with just 60 percent of the vote counted, she had already beaten Eurosceptic Centre Party grandee Paavo Väyrynen’s total of 157 668 votes in the 1996 election. She ended up getting nearly a quarter of a million votes. Andersson was visibly delighted after the results were announced. ”I’m still in shock. This is an incredibly fantastic result, much better than I could have ever dared to expect,” she said.
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Left Alliance Record Result in Finnish Elections
In the article below Li Andersson’s robust left-wing pro-Ukraine policy is examined in detail – the Irish left should follow this excellent example.
John Meehan, June 11 2024
Link :
Finland: ANDERSSON: The Left must clean out members who oppose support for Ukraine
CHAIRPERSON of the Left Alliance Li Andersson says The Left, one of the seven political groups in the European Parliament, should clean out members who question support for Ukraine and show sympathy for Russia.
“The groups are always reformed at the start of the term, and we want changes to the group that make it more cohesive on foreign and security policy,” she said to Helsingin Sanomat on Tuesday.
The Left Alliance is part of The Left in the European Parliament.
Helsingin Sanomat reported earlier this week that several members of the political group voted this term against resolutions concerning Ukraine, questioning the need for support – especially military support – for Ukraine. Some members have also criticised the economic sanctions slapped on Russia over its war of aggression in Ukraine.
An analysis conducted by the newspaper found that the group has divided on votes concerning Ukraine, with support coming from parties from the Nordics and opposition from parties in Central and Southern Europe.
Andersson, who herself is vying for a seat in the European Parliament, pointed out that The Left has nonetheless unanimously condemned the war of aggression prosecuted by Russia.
“I’ve stressed that there are certain things we won’t compromise on. The entire group has condemned the war unequivocally. Had that not been the case, we would’ve left the group or someone else would’ve had to leave,” she stated.
“On other issues, you can see that other parties differ from us in terms of their security policy analysis. They don’t reflect the thinking of the Left Alliance.”
How Russia and Ukraine support are viewed by other parties in the group is becoming a threshold question within the Left Alliance – one that defines what parties are capable of co-operation, according to Helsingin Sanomat.
Andersson said MEPs Clare Daly and Mick Wallace from Ireland, two fierce critics of support for Ukraine, can no longer sit with The Left. Despite also parroting Russian propaganda and seeking to torpedo resolutions on Russia, Daly and Wallace have been allowed to continue as members of The Left.
“The Nordic Green Left, [the umbrella party for left-wing parties in the Nordics], as a whole is of the opinion that if they manage to win re-election, they can’t join our group,” stated Andersson.
Sahra Wagenknecht, a German left-wing populist who has opposed military aid to Ukraine and called for the resumption of gas trade with Russia, is similarly not welcome to The Left, according to Andersson.
“We’ll represent our stance in every vote. MEPs of the Left Alliance will vote in favour of supporting Ukraine,” she pledged.
Helsingin Sanomat on Wednesday wrote that the European Parliament’s political groups have generated more discussion than previously in the run-up to the elections, a reflection of the groups’ growing importance in decision-making.
Johanna Kantola, a professor of political science at the University of Helsinki, said to the newspaper that the groups have marked differences: while the largest groups in the parliament – the centre-right EPP, the social democratic S&D and liberal Renew Europe – have highlighted their European and supranational nature, some of it has been lip service.
National interests are visible in votes and the groups exercise no group discipline, she said.
The Greens and European Free Alliance is a genuinely supranational group with a shared set of values, according to Kantola.
Finnish parties in the European Parliament have been aligned as follows: the Christian Democrats, Movement Now and National Coalition have been part of the EPP, the Finns Party of the ECR, the Social Democrats of S&D, the Centre and Swedish People’s Party of Renew Europe, the Left Alliance of The Left, and the Green League of the Greens and EFA.
Riikka Purra, the chairperson of the Finns Party, stated in mid-May that the Finns Party would stay in the ECR even if the group was joined by Fidesz, the party led by authoritarian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“We don’t have another group to go to, and you can’t be without a group. That’s when you need other structures that make it possible to co-exist,” she was quoted saying in Brussels on 14 May by Helsingin Sanomat.
Readers are urged to support this initiative :
We invite you – organisations and individuals – to sign the declaration “Ukraine: A People’s Peace, not an Imperial Peace”. Please find the declaration and our accompanying letter below. Different language versions are provided.
Link :
A People’s Peace, Not an Imperial Peace
Any sympathy vanishes :
“Sitting MEP Clare Daily has lost her European Parliament seat in the Dublin constituency.
She was excluded on the 17th count and becomes the first outgoing MEP to lose her seat in the election.
Asked how she felt following the loss, she told RTÉ News: “You had no interest in talking to me for five years, so I’ve no interest in talking to you.”
Ms Daly hugged Independent Ireland candidate Niall Boylan before swiftly leaving the count centre at the RDS.”
Link : https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/2024/0611/1454089-european-election-roundup/
The best that can be said about Niall Boylan is that he is a mini-Trump who should be shunned, like the mini-Hitler political trash which transferred heavily to him in the Dublin Euro-parliament election contest.
Tomás Ó Flatharta 