Tomás Ó Flatharta

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Six takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales – Dave Kellaway

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Dave Kellaway examines what we have learnt from the recent local and mayoral elections.

Source : 6 takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales


  1. Tory support is not recovering with Sunak.

In the run-up to these elections, Sunak tacked to the right. The government televised a roundup of migrants preparing for Rwanda flights. Sunak dramatically announced the threat of extremism after Galloway won Rochdale. He warmly welcomed the anti-trans Cass report. The Tories inaccurately attacked Labour as a party wanting to give amnesty to immigrants. They cut National Insurance to fool voters they may be better off amidst a cost of living crisis fuelled by huge rent and mortgage rises.

Sunak is not a great political operator or campaigner. Suella Braverman urges him to go further right by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and setting a more brutal cap on net migration. Some of her allies are trying to cajole former Prime Minister Boris Johnson back into a front-line role. Damian Green and Andy Street, representing the shrinking one-nation conservatives, call for Sunak to return to the political centre. The hard right has deferred replacing him before the general election, as the pretenders likely want to avoid getting tainted by leading the Tories to a big defeat. Everything is being prepared for a major post-election reconfiguration on the right.

Racist Dog-Whistles, Pro-Motorist Rhetoric and Anti-Woke Hysteria

Nigel Farage may be keeping his powder dry for now, aiming to mop up both the Tory Right and the Reform UK Party into a new outfit he can lead. The election results show that racist dog whistles, pro-motorist rhetoric and anti-woke hysteria are not resonating with the electorate. Susan Hall, the pro-Trump London mayoral candidate, led the Tories to an even worse defeat than last time.

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Swiss Grannies Win Historic Climate Change European Court of Human Rights Victory – Irish Green Party Minister Éamon Ryan Fought Them – and Lost

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You could not make it up. The Irish Green Party Leader Éamon Ryan is a Minister for Climate Change in the FFFGGG (Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Greens and Gombeens) Dublin Coalition Government. In a display of pure gombeen politics, the Green Irish TD fought the “Swiss Grannies” (“Aînées pour le climat”) in the European Court of Human Rights (EHCR) – and lost.

The “Aînées pour le climat” won a historic victory.

Heat-related deaths were at the heart of a recent landmark legal case taken by the so-called ‘Swiss Grannies’ in the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). The group, representing 2,400 older women, had argued that senior citizens were more likely to die in heatwaves. Earlier this month the court found that weak Swiss government climate policies had violated their human rights.

Jennifer Whitmore TD, Social Democrats, Wicklow

Marielle Budry describes the case :

Source : International Viewpoint,

Historic victory for the “Aînées pour le climat”

Link : Swiss Grannies – Historic victory for the “Aînées pour le climat”

On 9 April, the Grand Chamber of the European Court of Human Rights handed down a historic verdict, ruling that Switzerland is violating the human rights of older women because the country is not taking the necessary measures to combat global warming. [Aînées pour le climat – Older Women for Climate]

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Dublin Far-Right Racist Connections – A Sunday Independent story highlighted by Paul Murphy TD

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Far-right racists regularly target Paul Murphy TD (People Before Profit), Dublin South-West. These sinister activists picket the homes of elected politicians; a few days ago they targeted the home of Green Party Minister Roderic O’Gorman, who is gay and is responsible for the housing of immigrants.

Paul Murphy observes :

Good that some media is finally drawing the obvious link between the far-right and the disgusting intimidatory scenes outside Roderic O’Gorman’s house.

This isn’t a lack of civility in politics.

It’s an organised attempt to undermine democratic rights.

https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1781954648292683804?t=c3ttmKhAR-_G9oNaoBVPyA&s=19

Picketing family homes is from the same playbook as burning 🔥 immigrants’ accommodation, city centre riots such as November 23 2023 in Dublin, and propaganda  attacking the rights of specific national groups. 

We offer one example: Ukrainians forced to live in Ireland, fleeing from Russia’s genocidal war.

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Reflecting on the Rejected Referendums in Ireland – Diana O’Dwyer

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Diana O’Dwyer asks interesting questions :

The far right and conservative Catholics claimed credit for the outcome but so have progressive disability rights and carers’ activists. So who is right? Was this a victory for reactionary or progressive ideas, or is the truth more complicated?

Sources :

Reflecting on the Rejected referendums in Ireland – IV

Reflecting on the Rejected Referendums in Ireland – ESSF

On International Women’s Day, Friday 8th of March, voters in the Republic of Ireland delivered two of the largest defeats in history for referendums put forward by the government. The Family referendum, which proposed extending the constitutional definition of the family to include families based on other “durable relationships” as well as marriage, was rejected by a margin of 68% to 32%. The Care referendum, which proposed replacing a sexist clause in the Constitution about women’s “duties in the home” with a gender-neutral clause pledging the state to “strive” to support family care, was defeated by a record 74% to 26%. Both referendums had been backed by the ruling Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil- Green Party coalition and supported, to varying degrees, by all the major opposition parties. The far right and conservative Catholics claimed credit for the outcome but so have progressive disability rights and carers’ activists. So who is right? Was this a victory for reactionary or progressive ideas, or is the truth more complicated?

Polling data shows that the Family Referendum was rejected by a significantly higher margin in rural areas, ranging from 80% in Donegal to 61% across Dublin. There was less of a clear urban-rural pattern with the Care Referendum but in Dublin, No votes were higher in working class than middle class constituencies for both referendums. An exit poll found that the majority of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and (mostly right wing) Independent voters voted no to both referendums; Fine Gael, Green Party and Labour voters voted Yes-Yes and most People Before Profit and Social Democrat voters voted Yes to the Family referendum but No to the Care referendum. The 6% difference between the No votes in the two referendums suggests that around 6% of voters voted Yes to the Family Referendum and No to the Care Referendum. This compares to 68% of voters who voted No-No and 26% who voted Yes-Yes.

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“Will Sinn Féin in 2024 still just be the “attack dog” of opposition, or will a vision of what it will look like in government be clearly articulated?” Una Mullally, Irish Times, asks a very relevant question

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In the early days of 2024 thoughts turn to the next general election in Ireland which will create the 34th Dáil Éireann no later than February 2025.

Before that, in May 2024, voters in the 26 county bit of Ireland elect local authority councillors and members of the European Parliament.

All reliable opinion surveys suggest Sinn Féin will be the biggest party after the next Dáil general election, and that the current FFFGGG (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens) coalition may stay in office.

The post here looks at relevant statistics :

Irish Elections Projections

Sinn Féin does not rule out coalition with the right-wing parties, and – once we ignore silly point-scoring – we can see that Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens do not rule out coalition with Sinn Féin. Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is explicit on this point :

Fianna Fáil Leader Micheál Martin opens the door to coalition with Sinn Féin

The prospect of such a government should send shivers down the spine of any self-respecting supporter of the radical left in Ireland.

Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG), two tweedledum and tweedledee capitalist parties, have controlled every government running the southern 26 county bit of partitioned Ireland since a 1921 Treaty was signed with the former occupying power, Britain. A carnival of reaction followed on both sides of the Irish border.

Faced with a false choice between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the only rational policy for the left was and is: no coalition, on principle, with any right-wing party. 

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Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin opens the door to coalition with Sinn Féin

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Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has said there would be “huge difficulties” with his party going into government with Sinn Féin, but did not rule out the possibility of such a coalition after the next election.

Irish Times December 26 2023

Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG), two tweedledum and tweedledee capitalist parties, have controlled every government running the southern 26 county bit of partitioned Ireland since a 1921 Treaty was signed with the former occupying power, Britain. A carnival of reaction followed on both sides of the Irish border.

Faced with a false choice between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the only rational policy for the left was and is : no coalition, on principle, with any right-wing party. 

The need for this policy is explained in this interview with Paul Murphy TD (People Before Profit, Dublin South-West) : To all of them we say: rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – interview with Paul Murphy TD after the February 2020 Irish General Election

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Two Irish Green Party “Rebels” Plan to Vote for Landlords in Dáil Éireann – Thousands of Tenants Will be Evicted

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It seems certain that Green Party “Rebels” Neasa Hourigan TD (Dublin Central) and Patrick Costello TD (Dublin South-Central) will vote with FFFGGG coalition colleagues allowing landlords to evict tenants who will become homeless. A bad housing crisis will become worse.

Here is a quote from Deputy Costello’s website : “Ireland needs quality public housing – we need to build more homes, for all ages and incomes. Yet there is very little building happening, either public or private. This needs to change”.

The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Threshold paints a grim picture :

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Prevent Vatican Control of Ireland’s New National Maternity Hospital

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According to an Irish Times report (May 4 2022) the Dublin government is delaying implementation of a scheme to allow Vatican control over a new National Maternity Hospital in Ireland :

two members of the HSE board, Prof Deirdre Madden and Dr Sarah McLoughlin, dissented from a decision to approve the legal documents.

Green Party TDs Neasa Hourigan and Patrick Costello were among dozens of party members who wrote to the party’s Ministers to “implore” them to block the proposed moved.

Opposition politicians yesterday called on the Government to delay approval of the move before an Oireachtas debate on the matter.

Anne Conway reports : “The New Maternity Hospital Deal is rotten to the core. The new St Vincent’s Holdings Company that will run the new hospital being associated with The Panama Papers shows the immorality of it all. The economic brutality of the religious who were involved in instigating the new NMH handover is mirrored in their brutality to women and children in their care in industrial schools,Magdalen Laundries etc. Sexual abuse occured so paedophiles were among them. How can the Government proceed with handing over a 1 billion plus state of the art hospital to these people?”

Marie O’Connor’s detailed article (see below) gives readers the facts – a shady business deal is designed to prevent the new National Maternity Hospital being public and secular.

A public demonstration occurs on Saturday May 7 at 2.00pm outside the gates of Leinster House, Kildare Street – notice is below.

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Michael D Higgins 6 Partition 0 – Two Opinion Polls Show Landslide Support for the President’s Anti-Partition Actions – Irish Times Dampens Impact

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Casual Irish Times readers may not have noticed an important story. A news item is presented in a tiny corner on the front of the October 8 2021 edition of the newspaper :

Poll: A majority approves of the decision by the President to refuse to attend a religious event in Armagh : page 2

Turning to page 2 alert readers might notice a headline on the bottom of the page :

Poll reveals support for Higgins’s decision to decline invitation to partition event

The stubborn facts :


A large majority of voters approves of the decision by President Michael D Higgins to refuse the invitation to attend a religious event in Armagh to mark the centenary of partition and creation of Northern Ireland, today’s latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll finds.

More than two-thirds of respondents (68 per cent) agreed that the President was “right to decline the invitation”.

This is a statistical landslide, proving that mass sentiment is against the political establishment on this issue

Support for the President’s decision is highest among older age groups, with 74 per cent of those over 50 agreeing with him, against just 54 per cent of those aged 18-24.

A higher proportion of Fianna Fáil voters (74 per cent) than Sinn Féin voters (72 per cent) backed the President’s position, though supporters of the Green Party (81 per cent) were most likely to say he was right to decline the p

Supporters of Fine Gael (19 per cent) and Labour (20 per cent) were most likely to say he should have attended the event.

A different media outlet, the Irish News, published details of another opinion poll with very similar numbers, and decided this headline worked

“Huge backing for President Michael D Higgins” – Irish News Headline

Practical Conclusions?

Boycott the October 21 Armagh Cathedral Celebration of Partition

The men of God have no right to summon the President of Ireland to anything – certainly not a Partitionist Pray-in.

John Meehan October 8 2021

Very bad news for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – Sinn Féin secure a 10 point lead in a new Irish Times Opinion Poll

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www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll-sinn-féin-opens-up-10-point-lead-as-most-popular-party-among-voters-1.4693054

A new Irish Times opinion poll gives bad news to the Irish government parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

Note, however, that if these results occur at the next Irish general election, the present FFFGGG coalition (FF + FG + Greens + Gombeens) coalition will remain the government.

The numbers in this opinion poll are very similar to the February 2020 General result with one exception – the increased support gained by Sinn Féin :

http://irelandelection.com/elections.php?detail=yes&tab=summary&elecid=238&electype=1

“A sharp fall in support for Fine Gael has opened up a 10-point lead for Sinn Féin over its nearest rival as the party strengthens its position as the most popular party among voters.

The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll shows that Sinn Féin has the support of almost a third of voters at 32 per cent, far ahead of Fine Gael (22 per cent) and Fianna Fáil (20 per cent).

The poll also shows a drop in the satisfaction rating of the Government from 53 per cent in June to 46 per cent on Wednesday. Both Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar also see their personal approval ratings fall, Mr Martin by eight points to 41 per cent and Mr Varadkar by a substantial 13 points, to 43 per cent.

The state of the parties, when undecided voters and those unlikely to vote are excluded, is as follows: Sinn Féin, 32 per cent (up one); Fine Gael, 22 per cent (down five); Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (no change); Green Party, 7 per cent (up one); Labour, 4 per cent (up one); and Independents/others, 16 per cent (up three). All of the above figures are rounded which accounts for the total of 101%.

Among the Independents and smaller parties, the results are as follows: Social Democrats, 3 per cent (up one); Solidarity-People Before Profit, 2 per cent (no change); Aontú, 1 per cent (no change); and Independents, 10 per cent (up two). (Rounding of figures gives a total of 101 per cent.)”