Tomás Ó Flatharta

Looking at Things from the Left

Archive for the ‘Rishi Sunak – 3rd 2022 British Prime Minister’ Category

British General Election 2024 – Highlights and Lowlights – Loveless Landslide, Sandcastle Majority. Far-Right Hiding in Plain Sight, House of Paisley Falls in Antrim – and a Message of Hope from new MP Shockat Adam, Leicester South

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Let’s start with positive news :

Shockat Adam MP, Leicester South – “This is for the people of Gaza”.

When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.

Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :

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Written by tomasoflatharta

Jul 6, 2024 at 3:22 pm

Posted in 26 County State (Ireland), Alliance Party, Anti War Movements, Anti-Capitalist Resistance (Britain), Apartheid, “A Carnival of Reaction” - James Connolly’s Warning About the Partition of Ireland, Boris Johnson, Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister, Boycott Divestment Sanctions (BDS), Brexit - Britain Leaves the EU, Britain, British Empire, British Labour Party, British Tory Party, Channel 4 (Britain), Colum Eastwood MP (Derry), Conservative Party (Tories), Britain, Democratic Unionist Party, Derry, Dublin Governments, England, Europe Solidaire Sans Frontières (ESSF), European Union, FFFGGG Coalition, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Fourth International, Green Party, History of Ireland, Ian Paisley Junior MP, International Political Analysis, Ireland, Irish News Newspaper (Belfast), Israel, Israel Assault on Gaza, October 2023, Ivana Bacik TD, Labour Party Leader, Jeremy Corbyn, Jeremy Corbyn MP, Joe Brolly, John Swinney, Labour Party (Ireland), Left Wing Organisations, Liz Truss, ex British Prime Minister, Migration in Europe, Nigel Farage, Orange Order, Racism, Reform, Reverend Ian Paisley, Rishi Sunak - 3rd 2022 British Prime Minister, Russia, Sammy Wilson MP, Scotland, Scottish Independence, Scottish National party (SNP), Sinn Féin, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson MP, Sir Keir Starmer, Six County State, Sorcha Eastwood MP, Stormont, Lord Carson’s Tomb

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British General Election 2024, GE2024 : The Scottish National party may be gaining ground on Starmer’s Unionist Labour Outfit – Election Expert John Curtice Crunches new numbers

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Sometimes, a campaign alters the balance of forces in a significant manner. We can compare this fresh statistical evidence from Scotland with the real result which will appear in the early hours of Friday July 5 2024. Has British Unionist Sir Keir Starmer snatched defeat from victory in Scotland?

Link :


How John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s battered reputation – John Curtice

Sir John Curtice on how John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s ‘battered reputation’

By Sir John Curtice

Published 3rd Jul 2024,

Sir John Curtice delivers his assessment of the latest poll results from Savanta, for The Scotsman

Labour look set to make significant gains north of the border. And the SNP are at risk of falling short of their target of winning at least half of Scotland’s seats at Westminster.

However, the battle between them now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Mr Sunak called the election six weeks ago.

At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.

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GE2024 Forecast: Final Predictions and Analysis; British General Election

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Ell’s final calls for GE2024.

My final forecast for #GE2024

In the early hours of July 5 2024 we will know if this Stats for Lefties forecast is accurate. It covers Wales, Scotland, and England.

Comparing the real result with the forecast will be interesting.


Six County Statelet (Northern Ireland) predictions are here :
Six County Seat Predictions, Electoral Calculus

Copyright Steve Bell 2023/All Rights Reserved e.mail: belltoons@ntlworld.com tel: 00 44 (0)1273 500664
Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Junior – DUP candidates backed by Putin’s favourite parrot, the English Far-Right politician Nigel Farage

Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?

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Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.

MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.

All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.

Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North

This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.

Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party

The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction

None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction

A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.

Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?

Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction

John Meehan June 27 2024

General election 2024 (Britain): Sunak throws the dice

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General election 2024 (Britain): Sunak throws the dice : “Drowning Street” plus “Things Can Only Get Wetter”

Thursday 23 May 2024, by  KELLAWAY Dave

Dave Kellaway reacts to Rishi Sunak’s surprise call for a July 4 general election

  Contents  


From Europe Solidaire Sans Frontières (ESSF) link :

https://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article70844

Sometimes the beginning contains the end. ‘Drowning Street’ and ‘Things can only get wetter’ were among the headlines in the newspapers the day after Rishi Sunak’s announcement of the July 4th general election. He hoped for gravitas and drama that could somehow jolt the polls. Instead, he stood there getting completely pissed on. His voice was drowned out by an anti-Brexit protester broadcasting the 1997 Blair anthem, Things will only get better. It is almost as though his team hung him out to dry (or rather to get drenched). Was there really no staffer who knew that the police cannot stop you playing loud music at the bottom of Downing Street? Nobody to even hold an umbrella for the leader? All this expresses his isolation and the dire state of the Tory party as well as a complete lack of political nous.

A few minutes later you had Keir Starmer looking composed and prime ministerial in front of not just one, but two Union Jacks. He gave an intelligible, brisk speech summed up in the word on the rostrum – Change. Labour is not really going to change much but it does not look like it will lose the marketing campaign. Sunak’s excruciating performance was a bit like watching West Ham smashed last week – you knew the game was up when Man City’s Foden scored within two minutes. Nobody doubted the inevitable, City was going to win the league. Images count in elections where most voters get their news from the TV and non-print media.

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Six takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales – Dave Kellaway

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Dave Kellaway examines what we have learnt from the recent local and mayoral elections.

Source : 6 takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales


  1. Tory support is not recovering with Sunak.

In the run-up to these elections, Sunak tacked to the right. The government televised a roundup of migrants preparing for Rwanda flights. Sunak dramatically announced the threat of extremism after Galloway won Rochdale. He warmly welcomed the anti-trans Cass report. The Tories inaccurately attacked Labour as a party wanting to give amnesty to immigrants. They cut National Insurance to fool voters they may be better off amidst a cost of living crisis fuelled by huge rent and mortgage rises.

Sunak is not a great political operator or campaigner. Suella Braverman urges him to go further right by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and setting a more brutal cap on net migration. Some of her allies are trying to cajole former Prime Minister Boris Johnson back into a front-line role. Damian Green and Andy Street, representing the shrinking one-nation conservatives, call for Sunak to return to the political centre. The hard right has deferred replacing him before the general election, as the pretenders likely want to avoid getting tainted by leading the Tories to a big defeat. Everything is being prepared for a major post-election reconfiguration on the right.

Racist Dog-Whistles, Pro-Motorist Rhetoric and Anti-Woke Hysteria

Nigel Farage may be keeping his powder dry for now, aiming to mop up both the Tory Right and the Reform UK Party into a new outfit he can lead. The election results show that racist dog whistles, pro-motorist rhetoric and anti-woke hysteria are not resonating with the electorate. Susan Hall, the pro-Trump London mayoral candidate, led the Tories to an even worse defeat than last time.

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Ireland’s Open(ish) Border – Sinn Féin on the Warpath

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Ireland’s Open(ish) Border – Sinn Féin on the Warpath

Sinn Féin’s is warning Irish voters about “Open Borders”.

The party is promoting relentless propaganda in the run-up to the June 7 2024 European and local elections in Ireland.

This leaflet from Balbrigggan (Dublin) is a local version of statewide propaganda.

Let’s ask ourselves a question : What’s wrong with Open Borders?

Andrew Flood calls the border in Ireland Open(ish) – and he is spot on. Here is why :

I say Open(ish) because for two decades black or brown people crossing that border have been stopped and told to produce ‘papers’ by the Garda (claiming to be doing random checks). Maybe they want such checks stepped up, if not what is the demand here?

The border between the EU and the rest of the world is so closed that 3,000 people died trying to sneak across it last year. Over 20 times the number of people killed crossing the Berlin Wall in the 28 years it existed. The border with the 6 counties is Open(ish) – is it that?

OK we all know this is a response to the far right working with FFFGGP to blame Sinn Féin on the government’s failure to plan & communicate for large number of Ukrainian refugees. But this shite is just going to underline that Sinn Féin are no more principled that the rest.

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“Frogs’ legs and lobster Thermidor – or the ABC of republican strategy” – Fearghal Mac Bhloscaidh

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Fearghal Mac Bhloscaidh is one of the most interesting political writers in Ireland. The article below is a detailed analysis of Ireland’s peace process, which begins with a speech delivered by Bernadette McAliskey the year before the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998. I remember it well. (*)

John Meehan


About the author : Fearghal Mac Bhloscaidh is a Belfast-based historian and the author of a number of important books, including Tyrone: the Irish Revolution, 1912-1923 (Four Courts Press, 2014).

Link :https://blosc.wordpress.com/2024/02/07/frogs-legs-and-lobster-thermidor-or-the-a-b-c-of-republican-strategy/

As a young man, I listened to a speech by Bernadette McAliskey the year before the signing of the Good Friday Agreement – the pinnacle of what became known as the ‘peace process’. McAliskey did not object to peace, she had notoriously been subtitled by the BBC in a 1992 interview, when she said: ‘No sane human being supports violence. We are often inevitably cornered into it by powerlessness, by lack of democracy, by lack of willingness of people to listen to our problems. We don’t choose political violence, the powerful force it on us.’ (quoted in Curtis, 1998:297) By the time I heard her speak in 1997, the powerful had arrested her pregnant daughter, Róisín, with the intent to extradite her to Germany. By 2000, the powerful admitted that Róisín, who had never been charged, had no case to answer as there was ‘not a realistic prospect of convicting Miss McAliskey for any offence.’ (Guardian, 20 July 2000). What struck me at the time, was that the powerful had a vendetta against a woman and her family because she had stood up for socialist republican principles for thirty years at that stage. Last month, fifty-five years after the Burntollet march and her subsequent election as the then youngest female Westminster MP ever, McAliskey gave the main oration at the solidarity march in Dublin, where she told the crowd that ‘Palestine is the litmus test of our humanity’ and then urged those present not to vote for any politician who would legitimise the Biden administration, which was ‘enabling genocide’, by attending the St Patrick’s Day events in the White House (Irish News, 14 January 2024).

McAliskey’s speech from all those years ago stuck in my mind because in the questions afterwards she was asked about the peace process and used a powerful analogy that I hadn’t heard before at that stage, but I have heard and used myself on numerous occasions since. She welcomed an end to violence but warned that the provisional movement appeared to be going down a well-worn reformist path that would eventually denude it of any revolutionary potential. She compared the republican movement to a frog, which if placed in a pot of boiling water, will immediately sense the danger, and jump out to save itself, but, if immersed in tepid water brought slowly to the boil so that the change in temperature remains gradual, the frog does not realise it’s boiling to death. In line with their – soon to be – new mates in New Labour, Sinn Féin had swallowed TINA – there is no alternative. Plan A – armed struggle has failed, now we try Plan B. In Sinn Fein’s case, this meant the long march through the institutions, acceptance of the principle of consent and parliamentary reformism on the classical constitutional nationalist model. McAliskey had the temerity to ask for a Plan C, which might mean retaining socialist republican principles and challenging the powerful rather than getting into bed with them.

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The Border Partitioning Ireland – Credible opinion polls, Brexit, and Perfidious Albion

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A new credible opinion poll in the six county bit of Ireland states the following :

This matters, because under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA), if a six county (Northern Ireland) referendum results in a pro United Ireland majority, partition will be dead.

There is no reason to doubt the accuracy of this survey – it is consistent with many other recent opinion polls.

Under the GFA, the NI Secretary of State (currently Chris Heaton-Harris) has the power to call a referendum. This Westminster minister is not obliged to call a referendum unless a series of surveys indicate that a majority of voters in the six county statelet (NI) will vote for a change in the constitutional status.

This was a perfect arrangement for the Dublin and London governments in 1998 – a big majority of the people living in Ireland (on both sides of the border) voted to accept a Unionist Veto. No real prospect of a shift in attitudes seemed possible. But something big happened in 2016 which is having long-term results : Brexit.

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Is Independence the “Settled Will” of the Scottish People in the 2020’s?

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Recent political events in England and Wales suggest chaos : Support for Rishi Sunak’s Tories is dive bombing. The excellent Stats for Lefties site regularly updates numbers, and they are startling :

Startling Predictions

At the same time Keir Starmer’s Labour Party seems to be busting a gut : Is it desperately snatching general election defeat from the jaws of victory? Readers are probably aware of Starmer’s deeply unpopular refusal to oppose Israeli genocide in Palestine. Did Sir Keir Starmer say Israel has the right to cut off food water and electricity to 2 million people in Gaza?

Starmer might be scoring an own-goal in Scotland. This Bella Caledonia article reviews the latest developments. Source : The Settled Will About the Author Mike Small : Mike Small

The Settled Will

How do you understand the latest polling from IPSOS which puts the SNP ahead of Labour by seven points and predicts they would pick up 40 seats in the next General Election?

At the last general election IPSOS predicted the SNP would win 48 seats (and were the most accurate pollster to predict the result). The SNP would indeed later win 48 seats. If the ‘extinction event’ that is predicted for the Conservatives this would mean the SNP taking 70% of available seats in Scotland. If Labour annihilate the Tories in England as looks very likely, there’s a possibility of the SNP becoming the official opposition.

The wider party prediction seat prediction is:
SNP 40
Labour 13
Conservatives 2
Lib Dems 2

Emily Gray from IPSOS Scotland said: “The SNP lead by 7 points on General Election voting intention, but Labour are narrowing the gap. There’s a Rise in public trust in Scottish Labour, including on the NHS and the economy – though SNP still the most trusted party.”

What’s going on?

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