The Border Partitioning Ireland – Credible opinion polls, Brexit, and Perfidious Albion
A new credible opinion poll in the six county bit of Ireland states the following :
This matters, because under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA), if a six county (Northern Ireland) referendum results in a pro United Ireland majority, partition will be dead.
There is no reason to doubt the accuracy of this survey – it is consistent with many other recent opinion polls.
Under the GFA, the NI Secretary of State (currently Chris Heaton-Harris) has the power to call a referendum. This Westminster minister is not obliged to call a referendum unless a series of surveys indicate that a majority of voters in the six county statelet (NI) will vote for a change in the constitutional status.
This was a perfect arrangement for the Dublin and London governments in 1998 – a big majority of the people living in Ireland (on both sides of the border) voted to accept a Unionist Veto. No real prospect of a shift in attitudes seemed possible. But something big happened in 2016 which is having long-term results : Brexit.
Here is another piece of relevant data :
Let us recall an old piece of advice – Perfidious Albion. Numerous reactionary pro-partition forces are alarmed. In February 2024 Tory Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Democratic Unionist leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson published a camouflage policy document – “Safeguarding the Union” – allowing revival of the Stormont Assembly.
Sir Jeff and Rishi carefully concealed the details of their “Safeguarding the Union” 80 pager from 200 DUP delegates – but 4 of the party’s 8 Westminster MP’s (Girvan, Lockhart, Paisley and Wilson) are against the return to Stormont. The next Westminster general election is less than a year away, and these 4, with their friends in other constituencies, can stir up an immense amount of reactionary trouble.
Either the 80 pager is window-dressing of the “Windsor Framework” or it alters things significantly – in other words :
either the Brexit trade border remains along the Irish Sea between the island of Great Britain and the 6-county bit of Ireland
or the Brexit trade border is along the border separating Ireland into 6 and 26 county bits.
The manoeuvres of Sir Jeff and Rishi are highlighted by SDLP leader Colum Eastwood MP :
The SDLP leader has written to the UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, outlining his concerns and calling on the British government to “recommit to working the North-South institutions and working in close co-operation with the Irish Government”.
He has also written to the northern secretary asking him to correct the record after Chris Heaton-Harris said in the House of Commons that any change in the constitutional status of Northern Ireland “would absolutely depend on the consent of both communities at the time”.
The condition laid down in the Belfast Agreement stipulates no requirement for cross-community consent, only the consent of a majority in a vote held on both sides of the Border.
Irish Times, February 12 2024 “UK government ‘undermining’ Belfast Agreement with pro-union stance, SDLP leader says
Colum Eastwood believes 10-year timetable for a Border poll put forward by Sinn Féin is ‘realistic’
What does Perfidious Albion Mean?
“Perfidious Albion” is a pejorative phrase used within the context of international relations diplomacy to refer to acts of diplomatic slights, duplicity, treachery and hence infidelity (with respect to perceived promises made to or alliances formed with other nation states) by monarchs or governments of the United Kingdom (or Great Britain prior to 1801, or England prior to 1707) in their pursuit of self-interest.
Perfidious means not keeping one’s faith or word (from the Latin word perfidia), while Albion is an ancient and now poetic name for Great Britain.
Perfidious Albion
Examples of usage
The term often refers to the English reneging on the Treaty of Limerick of 1691, which ended the Williamite War between the predominantly Roman Catholic Jacobite forces and the English forces loyal to William of Orange, giving favourable terms to the Irish Catholics, including the freedoms to worship, to own property and to carry arms, but those terms were soon repudiated by the Penal Laws of 1695.[6][7] The Irish ballad “The Foggy Dew” includes the term in its lyrics. The song concerns the Easter Rising and the hypocrisy that England is concurrently fighting World War I so that “Small Nations might be free”, while Ireland’s struggle for freedom is forcibly suppressed
Perfidious Albion
John Meehan February 18 2024
Tomás Ó Flatharta 
John, just reading your latest, isn’t it interesting, SF and SDLP seem to have completely switched places, with Colum Eastwood’s leadership.
JOAN McKiernan
Feb 22, 2024 at 5:27 am