Voters in the 6 County bit of Ireland rejected Brexit in the 2016 British State referendum by a large margin : 55 to 45 per cent. This was a unique political event – opposition to Brexit broke down the normal sectarian divide on an important constitutional development in the north of Ireland : Almost all nationalists voted against Brexit, and they were joined by a significant number of Unionist (perhaps ex-Unionist) voters.
Afterwards a decision was needed : would a new European Union (EU) – Britain border divide the 6 and 26 county bits of Ireland – or would a new border emerge, dividing the island of Great Britain from all of Ireland?
Everybody knew a new Brexit border could not be imposed on Ireland. The British government needed window-dressing for its Unionist allies : the “Windsor Framework” was unveiled with a walk-on part for the reluctant British monarch King Charles.
This rickety constitutional construction kicked a sleeping dog. The 1998 Good Friday Agreement. copperfastened an imperialist crime – the 1922 partition of Ireland. A promise that partition could be ended through an internal 6 county referendum is part of the GFA – but this was never meant to happen. The architects of the GFA reasoned, correctly in 1998, that an anti-partition majority in the north of Ireland was extremely unlikely. The Unionist Veto was safe. After Brexit, not any more.
The former Fine Gael leader and taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, is saying out loud what many people know is true but do not want to hear :
A Nigel Farage-led UK goverment could herald a united Ireland – Varadkar
Irish Rap performers Kneecap are booked to play at a huge music festival in Glastonbury, but British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer thinks that’s not “appropriate”. Starmer’s crazy comment is so off-the-wall that ex Irish taoiseach (prime minister) the ultra-conservative Leo Varadkar (Fine Gael), thought it was a gag.
Irish Times news report :
“Kneecap’s official Instagram page shared a screenshot of the article containing Mr Starmer’s comments, stating that “arming a fu*king genocide” was what’s “not appropriate”.
In a comment underneath the post, Mr Varadkar said he had thought the comment from Mr Starmer was a “gag”.
“[I] no longer hold office nor have any mandate so my views don’t count for so much anymore. I get that. But I really thought this was some sort of gag. It’s the role of artists to be avant garde, inappropriate, challenging, disruptive – from James Joyce to Sex Pistols and Playboy,” he said.”
A whistleblowing contact has supplied the workers’ movement with two letters which the Socialist Workers’ Party (SWP) Central Committee is sending to members in Britain. There is no need for members of the organisation’s sister parties, such as the Irish Socialist Workers’ Network (SWN), to read these documents. They are strictly confidential.
We Demand Change Summit and the need to build confidence that the SWP has changed.
An important left-wing conference in solidarity with Ukraine took place in Brussels on March 26 and 27 2025. We will present a number of reports from this conference in the next few days. Here is the first item – written by Simon Pirani who publishes a People and Nature blog.
By Simon Pirani. Based on a talk given at a panel, “What peace?”, at the Solidarity with Ukraine event this week in Brussels
“What peace?” is a wide question. To narrow it down, we can ask: what sort of peace is being discussed among Ukrainians?
In an interview about the Trump-Putin talks, and the prospects for any agreement, our comrade Denis Pilash, a member of Sotsialnyi Rukh, said that “Ukrainians have two things in mind when thinking about any deal: the fate of people in the occupied territories, and how to prevent Russia from restarting the war.”
The photo is courtesy of a Ukrainian anarchist group that provides soldiers at the front with “all the necessary equipment that can increase their safety and efficiency in resisting the imperial onslaught of the Russians”.
These points could frame areas for agreements, he argued. He pointed to the Ukrainian government’s position that it will not recognise illegal annexations, but would accept a ceasefire followed by negotiations.
When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.
Jonathan Ashworth's car crash interview on returning asylum seekers to their country of origin
Jonathan Ashworth, "Rather than sending flights to Rwanda, we're going to be sending flights to the countries these people came from"
Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :
Sometimes, a campaign alters the balance of forces in a significant manner. We can compare this fresh statistical evidence from Scotland with the real result which will appear in the early hours of Friday July 5 2024. Has British Unionist Sir Keir Starmer snatched defeat from victory in Scotland?
Sir John Curtice delivers his assessment of the latest poll results from Savanta, for The Scotsman
Labour look set to make significant gains north of the border. And the SNP are at risk of falling short of their target of winning at least half of Scotland’s seats at Westminster.
However, the battle between them now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Mr Sunak called the election six weeks ago.
At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.
Abstention lowest since 1997 at 32.5% (cf 53% in 2022)
Macron’s big gamble has failed. By calling a snap election, he thought the French people would rally around his centrist party and the moderate left to put Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) back in its box after its victory in the recent Euro elections. He assumed a bigger turnout would not favour Le Pen’s extreme right-wing, post-fascist party. On the contrary, 20% more people turned out than in 2022. The RN consolidated its Euro vote and successfully allied with a split from the mainstream Les Républicains (LR, the Republicans). In terms of actual votes – around 12 million if you add in the votes of the Zemmour current who got less than 1% – this is a massive breakthrough. Previous scores in legislative elections were less than half this.
“Macron’s gamble has backfired spectacularly, with the Rassemblement National consolidating its Euro vote and securing an unprecedented number of MPs in the first round.”
The RN has never had so many MPs elected in the first round. They were already the biggest single party in the National Assembly, and it is probable now that they will maintain that position with even more MPs. However, it is still uncertain whether they will get the 289 MPs needed for an absolute majority, which would guarantee them the premiership with their young leader Bardella.
Everything depends on what happens in the second-round run-off. The top two stand automatically, but the third candidate can run in the second round if they have more than 12.5% of the registered voters. All the discussion immediately following the election focuses on whether the best-placed candidate to defeat the RN is given a free run by any eligible third-place candidates stepping down. Leaders of the Nouveau Front Populaire (the New Popular Front-NPF) from the Socialist Party, the Ecologists, and La France Insoumise (France Unbowed – LFI) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have all called for this ‘barrage’ (bloc) to stop the RN winning.
En cas de triangulaire, si le Rassemblement national est en tête et que nous sommes troisième, nous retirerons nos candidatures.
However, leaders of Macron’s Ensemble (Together) party have been much more equivocal. Some have called for blocking the RN with a single candidate, while others have said they will judge on a case-by-case basis. Bruno Le Maire, current economics minister, and Edouard Philippe, former Macronist prime minister, hold this position, saying they will vote for the social democratic left but not for the LFI. They refuse to support second-placed candidates from the LFI, whom they consider as extreme as the RN. These people do not like the way the LFI have supported the Palestinians and condemned the Israeli state or criticised police actions in ethnic minority neighbourhoods. This vacillating position could help the RN squeeze past both the Left and the Macron parties in a three-way race in some areas.
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here : MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.
Copyright Steve Bell 2023/All Rights Reserved e.mail: belltoons@ntlworld.com tel: 00 44 (0)1273 500664
Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight : Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Sometimes the beginning contains the end. ‘Drowning Street’ and ‘Things can only get wetter’ were among the headlines in the newspapers the day after Rishi Sunak’s announcement of the July 4th general election. He hoped for gravitas and drama that could somehow jolt the polls. Instead, he stood there getting completely pissed on. His voice was drowned out by an anti-Brexit protester broadcasting the 1997 Blair anthem, Things will only get better. It is almost as though his team hung him out to dry (or rather to get drenched). Was there really no staffer who knew that the police cannot stop you playing loud music at the bottom of Downing Street? Nobody to even hold an umbrella for the leader? All this expresses his isolation and the dire state of the Tory party as well as a complete lack of political nous.
A few minutes later you had Keir Starmer looking composed and prime ministerial in front of not just one, but two Union Jacks. He gave an intelligible, brisk speech summed up in the word on the rostrum – Change. Labour is not really going to change much but it does not look like it will lose the marketing campaign. Sunak’s excruciating performance was a bit like watching West Ham smashed last week – you knew the game was up when Man City’s Foden scored within two minutes. Nobody doubted the inevitable, City was going to win the league. Images count in elections where most voters get their news from the TV and non-print media.
Tomás Ó Flatharta 