At the time of writing it seems certain the outgoing right-wing coalition controlled by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will form the new government – their previous partners, the Green party, are likely to be wiped out. FFFG will be able to pick new partners.
We start with important data
Exit Poll latest update: Most voters support current level of asylum seeker State benefits or believe they should be expanded, latest election exit poll data shows. #election2024 http://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202…
In this post we concentrate on the issue of racism and the general election, with a particular focus on the Dublin Central constituency.
Here is a final tally displaying most of the first count
The golden rules for winning a seat in a Proportional Representation(PR) election are
1. Secure a winning position in the first count (In this case 4 seats available, Be in the first 4)
2. Secure at least half a quota
This means that McDonald (Sinn Féin), Donohoe (Fine Gael) and Gannon (Social Democrats) are very likely to win a seat each. The last seat is Gerry Hutch (wealthy businessman with a background in organised crime, a racist) Versus one of this chasing pack : Marie Sherlock (Labour party), Neasa Hourigan (Green party), Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit), Clare Daly (Independents for Change). The clear leader of this pack is Marie Sherlock. The transfers of candidates below Sherlock can be examined to see if the slogan Vote left, Transfer left operates effectively, or not.
Some discussion exists on whether Hutch is a racist candidate. He started his campaign making some reasonable statements, but then came out with a definitive policy which left no room for doubt – his campaign platform is extreme racist :
How To Vote on November 29? Oppose Any Coalition with FFFGGG – Stop the Far Right : Vote Left, Transfer Left
FFFGGG Equals ; Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens.
The 2020-2024 coalition government was composed of three parties : FF, FG, and the Greens – and was regularly supported by Right-to-Racist Gombeens (Independents) in the last Dáil.
In this context it is important to know the identity of left-wing and right-wing independent candidates.
A Cedar Lounge Blog writer has done a great job identifying credible candidates on the left who are often categorised as independent. Link : Possible Left Independents in the next Dáil
Irish General Election to 34th Dáil; Racist Danger
The June 2024 Euro/ Local results in Ireland produced some alarming results – the racist far-right came from the margins and increased its electoral support. This could be a predictor of the coming General Election result.
Warning signs to anti-racists exist in various opinion surveys. See, for example, these numbers from a recent RedC General Election Opinion Survey) :
Aontú, a right-wing split from Sinn Féin set up by an anti-choice TD from Meath, Peadar Tóibín, is beginning to hoover up right-wing racist votes which were scattered among various mini-Hitlers in the June 2024 European and Local Elections. We can say the same for the Irish Independence party (II). When we note that a majority of independent candidates are part of the racist far-right, a disturbing picture emerges. The numbers are worse in other parts of the Irish state.
Here is the data from an Irish Times Opinion Poll :
Irish General Election November 29 2024 Irish Times Survey Results 15/11/24
First preference voting intentions
Dublin
Rest of Leinster
Munster
Connacht/Ulster
Fianna Fáil
16.00%
19.00%
27.00%
13.00%
Fine Gael
22.00%
29.00%
22.00%
29.00%
Labour
9.00%
3.00%
2.00%
3.00%
Green Party
6.00%
2.00%
1.00%
2.00%
Sinn Fein
21.00%
16.00%
19.00%
21.00%
People Before Profit/Solidarity
4.00%
1.00%
2.00%
1.00%
Social Democrats
5.00%
5.00%
2.00%
2.00%
Aontú
2.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
Independent candidate
15.00%
21.00%
21.00%
25.00%
Temptation exists : bending to “understandable” fears. For example an election canvasser from a party with one foot in the left put it to me that some voters are “uncomfortable” because their neighbours come from outside Ireland.
Let’s be clear, harsh, and unambiguous : messages like this pander to the racist view that immigrants are criminals and rapists. There is no evidence backing up claims that people born outside Ireland are any worse than Irish natives. It gives oxygen to the far right shite being whispered around communities.
A highly-respected human rights campaigner Wendy Lyon draws our attention to a public statement issued by the Sinn Féin spokesperson on Integration Claire Kerrane TD (Ropscommon-Galway). Kerrane’s home town is Ballaghaderreen, which has recently been the target of sinister anti-immigrant racist mobilisations.
Sinn Féin's integration spokesperson has stood over a deleted Facebook post saying deportation should be considered for any immigrant who commits a crime.
But Claire Kerrane said it's a personal view and she's "not pushing for it" to become party policy.https://t.co/AxfyiNbcZq
Wendy Lyon posted this comment on the X/Twitter platform :
“A party representative who doesn’t think immigrants accused of crime should be entitled to legal aid is not fit to be integration spokesperson.”
Sinn Féin party leader Mary Lou McDonald TD led a pile-on against critics, featuring a legion of self-declared SF supporters [note of caution : many of them may not be real individuals]
She said nothing of the sort. Irish law provides that in cases of convictions for serious violent crime a person can be returned to their home state/ country of origin. This is not a controversial position. Please don't misrepresnt her.
Anyway, “criminals should be deported instead of imprisoned” is Little Irelander nationalism. If someone is really a danger to others then (until there’s a better alternative) prison is exactly where they should be, not free to be a danger to people in their country of origin.
Claire Kerrane TD, in her own words :
“Sinn Féin’s integration spokesperson has stood over a deleted Facebook post saying deportation should be considered for any immigrant who commits a crime.
But Claire Kerrane said it’s a personal view and she’s “not pushing for it” to become party policy.”
An anti-racist correspondent, EamonVIDF has done an excellent job providing context for this dispute :
Wendy Lyon holds an LLM in International Human Rights Law (Griffith College Dublin), for which she wrote her dissertation on sex workers’ right to health. She has been involved in feminist activism on both sides of the Atlantic for longer than she cares to admit. By day, she works as a solicitor, practising mainly in the areas of immigration and sexual/reproductive/maternity rights. She tweets about human rights law, politics, and her cats at @wendylyon. Wendy contributes to the Feminist Ire blog :
Simon Harris confirmed that he’ll travel to Áras an Uachtaráin shortly to ask President Higgins to dissolve the Dáil.
The election is set for Friday 29 November 2024.
A number of radical left candidates against any coalition deal with FFFFGGG have a realistic chance of winning a Dáil seat. [FFFGGG = Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens].
One of them is Councillor John Lyons in Dublin Bay North.
Councillor John Lyons (Second left) supports Irish Left With Ukraine (Seen Here Picketing the Dublin Russian Embassy of Vladimir Putin
Rejecting any coalition deals with FFFGGG and a policy that All refugees Are Welcome should be top priorities for radical left candidates in this general election.
People Before Profit (PBP) candidates also endorse the above policy.
Carola Rackete, a left-wing German Member of the European Parliament (MEP) with a high profile, supports Ukrainian resistance against Russian Imperialism.
Carola Rackete is a consistent anti-imperialist and is also an ecosocialist activist. Here is Carola’s Wikipedia entry :
Rackete participated in several research expeditions to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and is co-founder of the Antarctic Rights initiative. She also supported the Extinction Rebellion movement and took part in forest protests in Sweden, as well as the occupations of the Hambach Forest and the Dannenrod Forest in Germany. Between 2016 and 2019, she occasionally volunteered for non-governmental sea rescue organisations in the Mediterranean.[2] In June 2019, she was arrested for docking a migrant rescue vessel without authorization in the port of Lampedusa, Italy. The custodial judge considered Rackete’s actions as justified because she had a duty to save lives at sea and ruled that Rackete should not have been arrested. In 2021, the pending investigation was formally dismissed, since the state prosecutor didn‘t see reason to proceed to court.[3]
A newspaper acting as the mouthpiece of Vladimir Putin’s Russian imperialism (Junge Welt) launched a vicious campaign against Carola Rackete, who, as a leftist member of the EU parliament, agreed to a resolution supporting the Ukrainian resistance.
A Sinn Féin councillor has resigned from the party, saying he took the decision to do so after being “silenced” by his party on the migration crisis and the recent referendums on family and carers. Long-serving Laois county councillor Aidan Mullins announced his resignation after he was told he would be suspended from the party for three months.
When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.
Jonathan Ashworth's car crash interview on returning asylum seekers to their country of origin
Jonathan Ashworth, "Rather than sending flights to Rwanda, we're going to be sending flights to the countries these people came from"
Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :
Éirigí, a socialist-republican organisation, “is a political party that was formed in 2006 by a group of Dublin-based community and political activists. We believe that modern Ireland is a deeply undemocratic, unequal and unfair country not by accident, but by design.” Their analysis of Sinn Féin’s unexpectedly weak showing in the June 7 2024 Irish Local and European Elections highlights how the party was bounced into changing its position on immigrationand racism :
With a few notable exceptions, this new talking point was propagated without context – with no detailed critique of migration in the modern world – no attempt to explain why the asylum process is in chaos – no robust defence of the core republican principle of equality – no assertion that racism, sectarianism and xenophobia are the enemies of republicanism – no calling out the peddling of hate and division by the far-right. For potential Sinn Féin voters, the lesson was clear. The party could be bounced into changing its messaging if there were votes at stake, even when those doing the bouncing were far-right bigots. It seems almost certain that the ease with which Sinn Féin was bounced on the issue of immigration did them more electoral damage than their actual position on immigration.
Sinn Féin Election Disaster – The Price Of Putting Popularity Before Principle
Two weeks have now passed since the Local and European elections in the Twenty-Six Counties. Despite Sinn Féin’s frantic spinning to the contrary, the election was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster for the party. The number of votes and seats secured by the party was even lower than the lowest expectations of pollsters, political commentators and Sinn Féin itself.
As recently as July 2022, support for Sinn Féin was at a level not seen in more than a century. The Irish Times/IPSOS opinion poll for that month found that 36% of voters in the Twenty-Six Counties intended to vote for Sinn Féin.
Irish Times/IPSOS poll results from July 2022 had Sinn Féin attracting the support of more than one in three voters in the Twenty-Six Counties. (Image courtesy of Irish Times).
Fourteen months later, in September 2023, the same poll found that 34% still intended to vote for Sinn Féin. Among voters under the age of 34, support was even higher at more than 43%. Despite this, Sinn Féin secured less than 12% of the popular vote in the 2024 Local and European elections.
So, why have two-thirds of Sinn Féin supporters abandoned the party since last September?
Prior to elections the apparent answer to this question seemed obvious to many – immigration. Immigration, it was claimed, had recently become a red-hot issue for many Sinn Féin supporters., and these supporters were now walking away from Sinn Féin in their droves because the party was too ‘soft’ on immigration. It was an open and shut case. Until it wasn’t.
When the ballot boxes were opened on this day two weeks ago, it quickly became clear that the opinion polls had significantly underestimated the scale of Sinn Féin’s woes.
Provisional results of the 2024 European Elections, as at June 19. Source: results.elections.europa.eu
At first glance it looks as if the parties to the left of the social democracy held their ground against the surge of the far right and mainstream right that marked the June 9 European Union (EU) parliamentary elections (see here for results in detail).
Although the smallest of the European parliament’s seven groups, The Left managed to maintain its EU-wide vote at 5.4% and increase its seat tally from 37 to 39 in the 720-seat assembly.
In addition, left green Members of the European Parliaments (MEPs) and those representing stateless nations (part of the Greens group as the European Free Alliance) at least maintained their numbers in the chamber.
Yet the Greens group as a whole shrank from 71 seats to 53 while that of the liberals (known as Renew) fell from 102 to 79. This drop reflected that the environmental issues that in part drove the big advance of these parties in the 2019 election were less important for many voters this time.
The campaign was dominated by insecurity about the future, the cost of living (particularly housing), the fear of war, the “immigration threat” and intolerance of difference.
In this grim atmosphere the biggest growth went to the mainstream right European People’s Party and the two far-right groups (Identity and Democracy and Conservatives and Reformists): taken together the right and far right won an extra 30 seats, bring it to 324.
Because it would take only 37 ungrouped MEPs to join them to from a reactionary majority, the June 9 result poses with new urgency two old questions about politics in the European parliament. How much, if at all, does the real balance of political forces in the chamber differ from that among its formal groupings? And how much does membership of a group represent disciplined commitment to its positions?
Left divisions over Ukraine
The questions are sharply relevant in the case of the Left group, where differences over what stance to take towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine were already pointing towards a split before June 9.
On May 31, Li Andersson, chairperson of the Finnish Left Alliance told the Helsinki Times that these differences could not be tolerated in the group in the new legislature. Referring to Clare Daly and Mick Wallace, Irish left independent opponents of military aid to Ukraine, Andersson said: “The Nordic Green Left as a whole [covering Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroe Islands] is of the opinion that if they manage to win re-election, they can’t join our group.”
For Andersson, the same went for the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance: For Reason and Justice (BSW), a split in Germany from leading Left group member Die Linke (The Left). BSW opposes military aid to Ukraine and supports resuming the gas trade with Russia, in common with most of Europe’s far-right parties.
Tomás Ó Flatharta 