Diana O’Dwyer presents a refreshingly honest and interesting analysis of the November 29 2024 Irish General Election result. No attempt is made to hide an obvious fact : this was a setback for the left.
People Before Profit’s (PBP) slogan during the election campaign was “End 100 years of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael”. But now we are facing into yet another Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael (FF-FG) government. Why has this happened? Are we stuck in a never-ending Groundhog Day or does hope for radical change remain?
After the last election in 2020, escape from a century of FF-FG rule seemed not just possible but probable. The cycle of alternation between the two frenemies had finally been broken with the identical twins of Irish capitalism forced into a grand coalition, propped up by the Green Party with external support from right-wing Independent TDs. [2] The 2008 economic crash and the decade of social upheaval and struggle that followed had enabled Sinn Féin (SF) to steal the mantle of the largest party in the Dáil for the first time and it looked certain to lead the next government.
But now, almost 5 years later, FF and FG have returned with an extra 13 seats and are only one seat short of a majority – compared to 7 short last time. They are not any more popular than they were in 2020 – their share of the vote actually fell slightly (by 0.4%). But in a situation with little in the way of class struggle and where no clear alternative was posed, they were able to maintain and even improve their position. FF topped the poll at 22%, followed by FG on 21% and SF on 19%.
It is certain the two right-wing parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (FFFG) which controlled the outgoing right-wing coalition will form the new government – their previous mudguard, the Green party, was destroyed – coming back with one seat, and losing 11. FFFG can pick new partners. They won 86 seats out of 174 seats, only two seats short of a majority.
We start with important data on the rise of racism in Ireland. Extreme racist candidates polled badly in this general election. Despite the emergence of violent racist organisations in the last 18 months – the majority of Irish citizens remain hostile to this dangerous political cancer.
Exit Poll latest update: Most voters support current level of asylum seeker State benefits or believe they should be expanded, latest election exit poll data shows. #election2024 http://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202…
Sinn Féin’s governmental ambitions fizzled out. The polling attrition suffered by Sinn Féin during the middle part of the year strongly influenced the nature of the campaign. With no real sense that the government parties might be ejected from power, the election was a low-energy affair, with turnout dropping below 60% for the first time in the history of the state.
Analysis: In a year when ruling parties around the world lost elections, Ireland’s outgoing coalition parties bucked that trend
At the end of a year that saw parties around the world punished by voters, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have managed to avoid the incumbents’ curse. The coalition partners’ combined first preference votes fell by just 0.4 points – to 42.7% – compared with the 2020 general election. This is a remarkable result, given the high cost of living and continuing housing crisis – all the more so for Fine Gael, which has been in government since 2011.
Sinn Féin’s popularity was the story of the 2020 general election. It emerged as the first choice of nearly a quarter of the electorate (24.5%) but failed to nominate enough candidates to capitalise on this and ended up with fewer seats than Fianna Fáil.
Biding its time in opposition, the party set to work presenting itself as a government in waiting. The polls seemed to confirm this status. The party’s popularity peaked at 36% in 2022 but this figure underwent a slow – and then rapid – decline. An unwillingness to adopt an anti-immigration position, when the issue was becoming politicised in Ireland, saw it lose support with some of its supporters.
This was confirmed in June at the local and European elections. The party’s 11.8% vote share was a very poor showing. Subsequent scandals around the party, on both sides of the border, further damaged its standing with the electorate.
Sinn Féin’s share of 19% of the first preference vote on Friday represents a partial recovery for the party. But it is, nonetheless, a steep decline (5.5 %) from their 2020 performance, leaving Sinn Féin with no realistic path to power.
Unfortunately Sinn Féin was willing “to adopt an anti-immigration position” after some initial hesitation. Faced with rising racist agitation in deprived communities, the party pandered to reactionary sentiments. The main capitalist parties did the same – they discovered an issue that could be used to forward a right-wing agenda on a number of fronts. As a result, Sinn Féin lost support to its right – and to its left. The leaflet below, containing anti-immigrant messages, was used all over the state.
In the months leading up to these elections I was struck by messages from friends expressing alarm at this bad turn of events. A number of people said things like “I will not vote for Sinn Féin again”; “I would find it hard to give them a preference” and so on. I wondered if this trend was in any way representative – after all most people in my circle are further left than the general population! The general election proved these sentiments were not isolated.
Most political commentary on the general election notes setbacks suffered by scattered street-gang mini-Hitlers. Candidates like this – for example Malachy Steenson in the Dublin North Inner-City – emerged from the margins, and gained significant electoral support in the June 2024 local elections. They did not repeat their success in the November 2024 general election – they went backwards.
A more dangerous development occurred. A significant number of deputies from the ruling FFFG coalition, and Sinn Féin, promoted or dog-whistled at racist policies. At least 18 successful TD’s [Dáil Deputies] (gombeens) promote racist and misogynistic policies which have gone mainstream. These monsters are a throwback to a Catholic reactionary state that banned abortion, divorce and gay people – a state that threw women out of the workforce, that banished babies and single women to religious prisons run by the Catholic Church. Today’s far-right are disguised in the suits, ties, scarves and daily hairdos of Aontú, the Independent Ireland (II) Party, and a busload of independent TD’s begging for rewards from the new FFFG coalition : a mercs and perks brigade. Two additions to this gang in the new Dáil are Ken O’Flynn ( [II] Cork North-Central) and Gillian Toole [Independent gombeen racist] (Meath East). Others may come forward.
Nikita Hand Secures a Legal Victory over racist superstar kick-boxer Conor McGregor
During the election campaign a woman called Nikita Hand took a legal civil action, alleging rape, against an international celebrity, the kick-boxing superstar Conor McGregor. McGregor is closely associated with a number of mini-Hitler racists, some of whom were elected to Dublin council seats in June 2024. These included Philip Sutcliffe (Dublin South-Central) and Paddy Holohan (Dublin South-West). Most rape trials in Ireland are held behind closed doors, and the details are not widely broadcast.
This civil action was different : every day horrific evidence was headline news. Nikita Hand won her case.
This case damaged the mini-Hitler racist candidates –
An RTÉ News report contains the following information about Councillor Philip Sutcliffe :
In Dublin, Philip Sutcliffe, the head of Crumlin Boxing Club, was elected for the party. He boxed for Ireland at the Olympics in Moscow in 1980 and Los Angeles in 1984, and was elected in the Ballyfermot-Finglas LEA.
One of his most vocal supporters in the lead-up to election day was well-known publican and MMA fighter Conor McGregor. Cllr Sutcliffe has been McGregor’s boxing coach, travelling to fight camps internationally with McGregor, and featuring in social media posts.
On his Facebook page, where he posted regular updates during the campaign, Cllr Sutcliffe shared his support for Derek Blighe, a prominent right-wing nationalist anti-immigration protester and a candidate with the group ‘Ireland First’.
Mr Blighe regularly speaks about “plantations” and “unvettable fake refugees” at anti-immigration gatherings around the country. He has said the war in Ukraine is a “fake war publicised to encourage economic migrants to come to this country”.
“If you’re in this man’s area, vote [number] one for Derek,” Cllr Sutcliffe posted about Mr Blighe, who was running in the Ireland South European constituency and Fermoy Local Electoral Area against Independent Ireland candidates.
Cllr Sutcliffe also reposted video content from abroad about “refugee grooming gangs” while adding his own words: “Remember all this when voting, our government are letting the likes of their kind into Ireland.”
Cllr Sutcliffe was a first-time candidate and received 821 first preference votes, getting a seat on the 10th count.
During the campaign, as a result of the publicity over the McGregor case, the II party was forced to dump Sutcliffe, but his name still appeared on the ballot paper as an II candidate.
A sizeable protest march supporting Nikita Hand occurred after the verdict :
Women take part in a solidarity demonstration in Dublin after Nikita Hand won her personal injury case against Conor McGregor
Paddy Holohan, McGregor’s sparring partner, polled very well in the June council elections, but did very badly in the General Election. He got 3.7% of No.1 votes, ranked 12th of 16 candidates, with no hope of a seat.
The Gerry Hutch Near-Miss in Dublin Central
A near-miss occurred in Dublin Central, the constituency of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald. Statewide Sinn Féin lost 5.5% of its vote-share compared with 2020.
In Dublin Central the drop was much higher : 12.36%. The party lost votes to its left and right. Many of those votes went to a wealthy businessman-gangster, Gerry Hutch, who advocated a sinister anti-immigrant policy.
Some discussion exists on whether Hutch was a racist candidate. He started his campaign making a few reasonable statements, but then came out with a definitive policy which left no room for doubt – Here is Hutch’s extreme racist campaign platform :
Hutch came fourth in the poll. On Saturday November 30 most election experts predicted Hutch would win a seat after seeing the first count – Hutch looked to be too far ahead of the chasing candidates below him. This news attracted a huge posse from the international media to the main Dublin election count centre on Sunday December 1. They were disappointed.
A landslide “Vote Left, Transfer Left” grassroots heave appeared : against Hutch in favour of the nearest candidate below him, Marie Sherlock (Labour party).
The election guru Michael Marsh noted on RTÉ Radio 1 that a record had probably been set : never before, since all similar Irish elections from 1922, had so many voters transferred so heavily against one candidate.
As the counts were announced, Marsh was visibly astonished : the racists transferred heavily to Hutch : Steenson, Kelly, and Smyth of Aontú.
All other candidates (mainly on the left) transferred to each other – and overwhelmingly against Hutch :
Counts
Hutch’s Share
No.5 (Votes of Daly) (Independents for Change)
137 out of 1539
No. 6 (Votes of Ó Ceannabháin) (People Before Profit)
83 out of 2112
No. 7 (Votes of Steenson [Racist])
1262 out of 2195
No. 8 (Votes of Hourigan [Green party])
26 out of 2352
No. 9 (Surplus of Gannon [Social Democrats])
18 out of 881
Left-wing voters transferred in huge numbers to the second elected candidate Gary Gannon (Social Democrats) and the eventual winner of the fourth seat, Marie Sherlock (Labour party). Transfers from the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates went the same way.
Some may dispute this was a “Vote Left, Transfer Left” phenomenon on the grounds that FFFG votes went overwhelmingly to Sherlock in the last two counts. This is a false and stupid argument. People should grasp the fact that, in this constituency, FFFG voters preferred a Labour party candidate to a racist gangster. That is a sign of hope.
The transfer data in this constituency also shows that Green party voters chose other available left candidates ahead of Hutch, and ahead of the candidates from the two right-wing government coalition parties, FFFG. Comprehensive analysis of data like this in all 43 constituencies is awaited. That said, figures I have seen seem to show that “Vote Left, Transfer Left”, a call promoted by People Before Profit, operated in a large number of constituencies.
At the time of writing it seems certain the outgoing right-wing coalition controlled by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will form the new government – their previous partners, the Green party, are likely to be wiped out. FFFG will be able to pick new partners.
We start with important data
Exit Poll latest update: Most voters support current level of asylum seeker State benefits or believe they should be expanded, latest election exit poll data shows. #election2024 http://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202…
In this post we concentrate on the issue of racism and the general election, with a particular focus on the Dublin Central constituency.
Here is a final tally displaying most of the first count
The golden rules for winning a seat in a Proportional Representation(PR) election are
1. Secure a winning position in the first count (In this case 4 seats available, Be in the first 4)
2. Secure at least half a quota
This means that McDonald (Sinn Féin), Donohoe (Fine Gael) and Gannon (Social Democrats) are very likely to win a seat each. The last seat is Gerry Hutch (wealthy businessman with a background in organised crime, a racist) Versus one of this chasing pack : Marie Sherlock (Labour party), Neasa Hourigan (Green party), Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit), Clare Daly (Independents for Change). The clear leader of this pack is Marie Sherlock. The transfers of candidates below Sherlock can be examined to see if the slogan Vote left, Transfer left operates effectively, or not.
Some discussion exists on whether Hutch is a racist candidate. He started his campaign making some reasonable statements, but then came out with a definitive policy which left no room for doubt – his campaign platform is extreme racist :
How To Vote on November 29? Oppose Any Coalition with FFFGGG – Stop the Far Right : Vote Left, Transfer Left
FFFGGG Equals ; Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens.
The 2020-2024 coalition government was composed of three parties : FF, FG, and the Greens – and was regularly supported by Right-to-Racist Gombeens (Independents) in the last Dáil.
In this context it is important to know the identity of left-wing and right-wing independent candidates.
A Cedar Lounge Blog writer has done a great job identifying credible candidates on the left who are often categorised as independent. Link : Possible Left Independents in the next Dáil
Irish General Election to 34th Dáil; Racist Danger
The June 2024 Euro/ Local results in Ireland produced some alarming results – the racist far-right came from the margins and increased its electoral support. This could be a predictor of the coming General Election result.
Warning signs to anti-racists exist in various opinion surveys. See, for example, these numbers from a recent RedC General Election Opinion Survey) :
Aontú, a right-wing split from Sinn Féin set up by an anti-choice TD from Meath, Peadar Tóibín, is beginning to hoover up right-wing racist votes which were scattered among various mini-Hitlers in the June 2024 European and Local Elections. We can say the same for the Irish Independence party (II). When we note that a majority of independent candidates are part of the racist far-right, a disturbing picture emerges. The numbers are worse in other parts of the Irish state.
Here is the data from an Irish Times Opinion Poll :
Irish General Election November 29 2024 Irish Times Survey Results 15/11/24
First preference voting intentions
Dublin
Rest of Leinster
Munster
Connacht/Ulster
Fianna Fáil
16.00%
19.00%
27.00%
13.00%
Fine Gael
22.00%
29.00%
22.00%
29.00%
Labour
9.00%
3.00%
2.00%
3.00%
Green Party
6.00%
2.00%
1.00%
2.00%
Sinn Fein
21.00%
16.00%
19.00%
21.00%
People Before Profit/Solidarity
4.00%
1.00%
2.00%
1.00%
Social Democrats
5.00%
5.00%
2.00%
2.00%
Aontú
2.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
Independent candidate
15.00%
21.00%
21.00%
25.00%
Temptation exists : bending to “understandable” fears. For example an election canvasser from a party with one foot in the left put it to me that some voters are “uncomfortable” because their neighbours come from outside Ireland.
Let’s be clear, harsh, and unambiguous : messages like this pander to the racist view that immigrants are criminals and rapists. There is no evidence backing up claims that people born outside Ireland are any worse than Irish natives. It gives oxygen to the far right shite being whispered around communities.
A highly-respected human rights campaigner Wendy Lyon draws our attention to a public statement issued by the Sinn Féin spokesperson on Integration Claire Kerrane TD (Ropscommon-Galway). Kerrane’s home town is Ballaghaderreen, which has recently been the target of sinister anti-immigrant racist mobilisations.
Sinn Féin's integration spokesperson has stood over a deleted Facebook post saying deportation should be considered for any immigrant who commits a crime.
But Claire Kerrane said it's a personal view and she's "not pushing for it" to become party policy.https://t.co/AxfyiNbcZq
Wendy Lyon posted this comment on the X/Twitter platform :
“A party representative who doesn’t think immigrants accused of crime should be entitled to legal aid is not fit to be integration spokesperson.”
Sinn Féin party leader Mary Lou McDonald TD led a pile-on against critics, featuring a legion of self-declared SF supporters [note of caution : many of them may not be real individuals]
She said nothing of the sort. Irish law provides that in cases of convictions for serious violent crime a person can be returned to their home state/ country of origin. This is not a controversial position. Please don't misrepresnt her.
Anyway, “criminals should be deported instead of imprisoned” is Little Irelander nationalism. If someone is really a danger to others then (until there’s a better alternative) prison is exactly where they should be, not free to be a danger to people in their country of origin.
Claire Kerrane TD, in her own words :
“Sinn Féin’s integration spokesperson has stood over a deleted Facebook post saying deportation should be considered for any immigrant who commits a crime.
But Claire Kerrane said it’s a personal view and she’s “not pushing for it” to become party policy.”
An anti-racist correspondent, EamonVIDF has done an excellent job providing context for this dispute :
Wendy Lyon holds an LLM in International Human Rights Law (Griffith College Dublin), for which she wrote her dissertation on sex workers’ right to health. She has been involved in feminist activism on both sides of the Atlantic for longer than she cares to admit. By day, she works as a solicitor, practising mainly in the areas of immigration and sexual/reproductive/maternity rights. She tweets about human rights law, politics, and her cats at @wendylyon. Wendy contributes to the Feminist Ire blog :
Simon Harris confirmed that he’ll travel to Áras an Uachtaráin shortly to ask President Higgins to dissolve the Dáil.
The election is set for Friday 29 November 2024.
A number of radical left candidates against any coalition deal with FFFFGGG have a realistic chance of winning a Dáil seat. [FFFGGG = Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens].
One of them is Councillor John Lyons in Dublin Bay North.
Councillor John Lyons (Second left) supports Irish Left With Ukraine (Seen Here Picketing the Dublin Russian Embassy of Vladimir Putin
Rejecting any coalition deals with FFFGGG and a policy that All refugees Are Welcome should be top priorities for radical left candidates in this general election.
People Before Profit (PBP) candidates also endorse the above policy.
Carola Rackete, a left-wing German Member of the European Parliament (MEP) with a high profile, supports Ukrainian resistance against Russian Imperialism.
Carola Rackete is a consistent anti-imperialist and is also an ecosocialist activist. Here is Carola’s Wikipedia entry :
Rackete participated in several research expeditions to Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and is co-founder of the Antarctic Rights initiative. She also supported the Extinction Rebellion movement and took part in forest protests in Sweden, as well as the occupations of the Hambach Forest and the Dannenrod Forest in Germany. Between 2016 and 2019, she occasionally volunteered for non-governmental sea rescue organisations in the Mediterranean.[2] In June 2019, she was arrested for docking a migrant rescue vessel without authorization in the port of Lampedusa, Italy. The custodial judge considered Rackete’s actions as justified because she had a duty to save lives at sea and ruled that Rackete should not have been arrested. In 2021, the pending investigation was formally dismissed, since the state prosecutor didn‘t see reason to proceed to court.[3]
A newspaper acting as the mouthpiece of Vladimir Putin’s Russian imperialism (Junge Welt) launched a vicious campaign against Carola Rackete, who, as a leftist member of the EU parliament, agreed to a resolution supporting the Ukrainian resistance.
A Sinn Féin councillor has resigned from the party, saying he took the decision to do so after being “silenced” by his party on the migration crisis and the recent referendums on family and carers. Long-serving Laois county councillor Aidan Mullins announced his resignation after he was told he would be suspended from the party for three months.
When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.
Jonathan Ashworth's car crash interview on returning asylum seekers to their country of origin
Jonathan Ashworth, "Rather than sending flights to Rwanda, we're going to be sending flights to the countries these people came from"
Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :
Tomás Ó Flatharta 