Posts Tagged ‘Northern Ireland’
GE2024 Forecast: Final Predictions and Analysis; British General Election
Ell’s final calls for GE2024.
My final forecast for #GE2024
In the early hours of July 5 2024 we will know if this Stats for Lefties forecast is accurate. It covers Wales, Scotland, and England.
Comparing the real result with the forecast will be interesting.
Six County Statelet (Northern Ireland) predictions are here :
Six County Seat Predictions, Electoral Calculus
A Stormont law said it’s a criminal offence to say “Jimmy Savile was a paedophile” – Judge ruled this is perverse, Minister Naomi Long launches appeal
On the face of it this is political loony-land – and so much for the liberal reputation of Alliance Party leader Naomi Long, currently trying to take the East Belfast Westminster seat of DUP leader Gavin Robinson – the result will be known in the early hours of Friday July 5.
Political Journalist Sam McBride explains the background in two articles below.
One correspondent asked McBride a relevant question, straining to give Long the benefit of the doubt :
Read the rest of this entry »Birds of a Feather Flock Together – Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, Nigel Farage and Sammy Wilson MP (DUP, East Antrim)
There is more to this story than initially meets the eye. Much capitalist development is based on Ethnic Cleansing of original populations and the plantation of new non-indigenous populations – it happened in the United States of America (USA) and Australia – naming just two. It did not happen so brutally in Ireland – but British imperialism made a significant effort.
Links :
Plantation of Ulster
Ethnic Cleansing of Ireland – Wikipedia
The Northern province of Ulster was “planted” in the 1600’s, but the native Irish were not completely exterminated. Waves of native Irish emigrated – especially in the 19th century after a misnamed Famine (in reality a “Great Hunger” caused by British Imperialist Policy) drove millions of the native Irish to the four corners of the globe. These emigrants kept alive the idea of Irish freedom, and played a significant role in every attempt to rid Ireland of British rule.
The stubborn Irish “national question” remains on today’s agenda because of the 1922 Anglo-Irish Treaty which divided Ireland into 2 sectarian states. A key feature of extreme Irish Unionism is identification with plantation/ethnic cleansing forms of capitalism – and that goes a long way towards explaining Irish far-right Unionist sympathy for the present day attempted ethnic cleansing of Palestine and Ukraine. We should situate recent pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine statements by the British far-right politician Nigel Farage and Sammy Wilson within this framework :
Link :
The Russian imperialist occupation of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk is ethnic cleansing capitalism in action – accompanied by child stealing and abuse similar to the behaviour of the Catholic Church in the 26 county bit of Ireland from the 1930’s to the 1990’s.
An excellent Ukrainian blog, Ukr-Taz, covers the story of Putin’s ethnic cleansing dreams in Ukraine, and Donald Trump’s enthusiastic support :
Trump on Putin’s “dream”
29 06 2024
For all that can be said about Thursday’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump — including about the former’s dismal performance and about the boundless creativity of Trump’s fabrications on almost every topic under the sun — Trump’s curious note about Putin’s “dream” stood out to me:
Read the rest of this entry »Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.
Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?
Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction
John Meehan June 27 2024
Robert Ballagh’s “The Thirtieth of January”: A Bloody Sunday Painting and the Troubles in the Two Bits of Ireland
In this interview the artist Robert Ballagh discusses the painting “The Thirtieth of January”, depicting Bloody Sunday in Derry in 1972. The conversation provides valuable insights into Ballagh’s personal experiences and artistic process, shedding light on the political and social context of the time.
The interview provides a unique insight into the historical and cultural significance of the painting.
Critical issues related to the Irish government’s response to the conflict, the impact of the Bloody Sunday event, and the broader social and political implications are highlighted. Ballagh’s commentary on the role of the Irish government, the impact on nationalist communities, and the establishment of the Special Criminal Court adds depth to the discussion.
Bloody Sunday Painting – the Thirtieth of January – Robert Ballagh
Thursday, January 20 2022. John Meehan interviews the artist Robert Ballagh in Number Five Arbour Hill.
We are talking about Robert’s painting : The Thirtieth of January, a representation of Bloody Sunday in Derry, January 30 1972.
John Meehan :
Why did you zone in on Derry’s Bloody Sunday , and put so much effort into making this painting? What makes it different from so many other big events during “The Troubles” in the north of Ireland, which lasted for 30 years, from 1968 to 1998?
Robert Ballagh
Well, it’s a long time ago now 50 years, but I have to say that it had an enormous effect on me, and I don’t think I’m alone with that historical experience. I suppose one thing I should say, I was only thinking about this, and I haven’t said anything about this experience to others. I’m a Dubliner. I’ve lived all my life in Dublin. But unlike most Dubliners – it wasn’t by design – I had an extraordinary rich knowledge of the North of Ireland, before the conflict began. Because I was a professional musician in a showband. We used to play at least once or twice a week in the north. So I was in every town village or city in the north that had a ballroom or ballrooms. And so I experienced the reality of life in that society, and became very aware of the sectarian differences, shall we say – the nature of the society, which people didn’t appreciate at all. I tell one very short story to illustrate that. We played fairly regularly in one of the very popular ballrooms in Belfast : Romano’s in Queen Street. We developed quite a following! In the show business vernacular the word groupie was used. These girls used follow us, they came down to Dublin once or twice to hear us. And we were playing one night in Romano’s.
After the dance, they came up and we’re talking to us. They asked “When are you playing again in Belfast?”.
I remember saying “Oh, I think we’re here next week.”
“Oh, really?”
“Yeah – we’re playing in a ballroom called the Astor” which I knew was in Smithfield.
And they said, “Oh, we can’t go there.” And I said, “Why?” – because it was a public ballroom. It wasn’t attached to any organization or anything. It was a public ballroom.
They said, “Oh, no, that’s a taig hall”
And it was the first time I realized, and we realized, that our fan base in Belfast was Protestant.
“Vote Left” Transfer Pact in June 2024 Irish Elections? – A Positive People Before Profit Initiative
People Before Profit is proposing a “Vote Left” transfer pact to operate in the June 2024 Local and European Elections, 26 Counties
Presenting this positive initiative Paul Murphy TD said
He was fully aware that there would be different perspectives and, but People Before Profit “sees this as just the start of a process to form a left alternative.”
Paul Murphy TD
Link :
PBP Vote Left Transfer Pact Proposal
A useful detailed discussion is taking place on the Cedar Lounge Revolution Blog
(Link : The Cedar Lounge Revolution)
A correspondent, IrishElectionLiterature, opened the discussion on a positive note :
Link :
Vote left, Transfer left, Then What?
In the article below, important points from the discussion are highlighted.
This is a serious matter, especially in a context where it is necessary to confront and defeat the extreme racist right.
Colm Breathnach offers a very good template :
Just a personal thing, but here’s my own general set of rules when it comes to voting where a Proportional Representation system is in operation (obviously First Pat The Post system is much more challenging in terms of decisions):
- Start with the furthest left and keep voting until you reach the border of what you consider to be the left (for me, that’s social democratic or social liberal parties). Of course that border can shift – the Irish Greens were once inside my border of “left”, now they are definitely outside.
- Exclude candidates who consistently hold reactionary positions regardless of their ostensible politics – favour genocide, homophobic etc etc. So the Daly’s of the world don’t feature or let’s say a centre left candidate who justified Israel’s genocide in Gaza.
- Adjust to take account of specific concerns which one might deem important for progress to radical transformation of society. So for example you may alter your ranking to the take into account the candidates position on climate change or Irish unity etc.
Colm continues :
Read the rest of this entry »Ireland’s Open(ish) Border : “selective Garda passport checks on the Border already take place, at times on the basis of quite blatant racial discrimination” – Statement by Human Rights Organisations and Trade Unions
A number of Irish human rights organizations and Trade Unions have issued a very strong statement following a stampede of racist publicity concerning “Open Borders”.
Here is an example from the Sunday Independent (May 5 2025)
Do you believe there should be checkpoints at the border with Northern Ireland to limit the number of asylum-seekers coming from the U.K.?
The newspaper published this summary of its survey :
Once again, Andrew Flood offers a devastating reply
With the trap carefully baited & Sinn Féin blundering into it here’s the spring being sprung. Farage & Dowson cackling with glee as their weird investment pays off. It’s a trap all the way down of course because …
Andrew Flood
It gets dafter – 82% want to go through an expensive deportation process to somewhere we have a common travel area with & where people deported can just walk back across any of the 400+ border crossing points again you can see where accepting this logic rapidly leads
Andrew Flood
Ireland’s Open(ish) Border – Sinn Féin on the Warpath
Ireland’s Open(ish) Border – Sinn Féin on the Warpath
Sinn Féin’s is warning Irish voters about “Open Borders”.
The party is promoting relentless propaganda in the run-up to the June 7 2024 European and local elections in Ireland.
This leaflet from Balbrigggan (Dublin) is a local version of statewide propaganda.
Let’s ask ourselves a question : What’s wrong with Open Borders?
Andrew Flood calls the border in Ireland Open(ish) – and he is spot on. Here is why :
I say Open(ish) because for two decades black or brown people crossing that border have been stopped and told to produce ‘papers’ by the Garda (claiming to be doing random checks). Maybe they want such checks stepped up, if not what is the demand here?
The border between the EU and the rest of the world is so closed that 3,000 people died trying to sneak across it last year. Over 20 times the number of people killed crossing the Berlin Wall in the 28 years it existed. The border with the 6 counties is Open(ish) – is it that?
OK we all know this is a response to the far right working with FFFGGP to blame Sinn Féin on the government’s failure to plan & communicate for large number of Ukrainian refugees. But this shite is just going to underline that Sinn Féin are no more principled that the rest.
Read the rest of this entry »
Weak Arm of the Law in the 26 County bit of Ireland – Police “Hug-a-Thug” Policy imported from the 6 County bit of Ireland
The boss of An Garda Síochána (police force in the 26 county bit of Ireland), Drew Harris, was recruited from the cops in the 6 county bit of Ireland. The people running the two states in partitioned Ireland have developed very close social, political and personal relationships since the the 1998 triumph of the Good Friday Agreement. I recently circulated details of Harris’s “Hug-a-Thug” policy towards growing far-right violence in the 26 counties to a 6 county political activist, who commented this was “reminiscent of the historic style of policing up here”.
Ruling class forces were extremely happy about the continuation of partition guaranteed by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. They did not foresee that the foundations of partition in Ireland are more rotten than their constitutional plan conceding a Unionist Veto to a majority of the voting population of the six county state. The Brexit referendum result of 2016 lit a slow-burning fuse under the GFA structure; in the meantime we are witnessing the creation of a possible “United Ireland from Hell” which consists of knitting together the most reactionary features of both partitioned states in Ireland.
The following article from the Cedar Lounge Revolution Blog powerfully illustrates the dangers arising from importing 6 county softly-softly policing methods towards the far-right (loyalist paramilitaries), fine-tuned by Garda boss Drew Harris.
John Meehan April 22 2024
Weak Arm of the Law – Cedar Lounge Blog
Link : Weak Arm of the Law – Cedar Lounge Blog
So, Friday comes the news that the previous night:
Gardaí were called to the home of Children’s Minister Roderic O’Gorman on Thursday night when a gang of up to 12 masked men gathered outside his house and huge placards and banners were stretched across his driveway gate, along his wall and fastened to outside polls.
Read the rest of this entry »
British Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris “accused of ‘unprecedented political intervention’ in legacy inquest” – News from the 6 County Bit of Ireland
Exclusive: Chris Heaton-Harris accused of ‘unprecedented political intervention’ in legacy inquest – Irish News Newspaper
Northern Ireland Office minister seeks to block information being passed to family of murdered Catholic man Fergal McCusker
Family Members of Fergal McCusker attend the Inquest at Laganside courts on Tuesday April 9 2024
News like this does not get the attention it deserves. Low standards of justice remain very common in the sick state of Northern Ireland.
Here are the details.
Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris has been accused of “an unprecedented political intervention” as it emerged he has written to chief constable Jon Boutcher questioning his actions.
Dramatic details came to light during an inquest hearing liked to the LVF murder of Fergal McCusker (28) in Maghera, Co Derry, as he made his way home from a night out on January 18, 1998.
No-one has ever been charged with the Catholic man’s murder, although four men were arrested and later released.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tomás Ó Flatharta 