Posts Tagged ‘Ireland’s Open(ish) Border’
British General Election 2024 – Highlights and Lowlights – Loveless Landslide, Sandcastle Majority. Far-Right Hiding in Plain Sight, House of Paisley Falls in Antrim – and a Message of Hope from new MP Shockat Adam, Leicester South
Let’s start with positive news :
Shockat Adam MP, Leicester South – “This is for the people of Gaza”.
When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.
Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :
Read the rest of this entry »Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.


Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?
Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction
John Meehan June 27 2024
Ireland : Government and opposition ‘giving in to far-right playbook’ – Hope and Courage Collective Speaks Out
Government and opposition politicians are “giving in to the far-right playbook”, while anti-immigration demonstrations have become more aggressive since the Dublin riots, according to the director of the Hope and Courage Collective.
The Hope and Courage Collective, previously the Far Right Observatory, is a national civil society organisation “that works with community groups, advocacy groups, trade unions, activists and academics to stop hate organising in our communities and workplaces”.
The group works to “support communities and civil society to stay grounded, caring and resilient in the face of far-right hate, bigotry and extremism”.



Speaking at a recent Joint Policing Committee, Garda Assistant Commissioner Angela Willis said there has been a fall in anti-immigrant protests in Dublin. However, she noted the level of aggression at demonstrations has increased.
Director of Advocacy and Community Engagement at the Hope and Courage Collective Niamh McDonald told BreakingNews.ie that the group has noticed this trend, adding that anti-immigration demonstrations have become more organised.
Changed Racist Tactics – Blockades Outside Buildings Housing Immigrants
“We have noticed a change since the Dublin riots. It’s a change in the dynamics of the activity around these protests. We would concur that there is a drop in the numbers of people coming out, but the tactics have changed. We see the likes of blockades or encampments outside centres that have been copied across the country since January.
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