Posts Tagged ‘brexit’
GE2024 Forecast: Final Predictions and Analysis; British General Election
Ell’s final calls for GE2024.
My final forecast for #GE2024
In the early hours of July 5 2024 we will know if this Stats for Lefties forecast is accurate. It covers Wales, Scotland, and England.
Comparing the real result with the forecast will be interesting.
Six County Statelet (Northern Ireland) predictions are here :
Six County Seat Predictions, Electoral Calculus


Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.


Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?
Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction
John Meehan June 27 2024
Saving Sodomy from Ulster – Public professions of Christianity frequently mask horrible crimes
Slugger O’Toole is a politically liberal site based in the 6 county bit of Ireland. One of its writers observes :
One of the great lessons in life is that the more someone publicly professes to be a ‘Christian,’ the more unchristian their private life is.
Years ago, I met one of the leading figures in the Save Ulster From Sodomy Campaign. I have a surprisingly good gaydar for a straight guy, and it was pinging off the chart. This guy had spent much of the 70s and 80s persecuting gays while himself being as gay as Eurovision. I felt sorry for him; he was a product of his upbringing. To live your life as a lie and with such self-loathing must be very tiring on the soul.
https://sluggerotoole.com/2024/03/30/public-morality-private-hypocrisy/
The Save Ulster from Sodomy campaign was a vicious anti-gay operation run by the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) and the Reverend Ian Paisley’s Free Presbyterian church. Paisley, a busy man, was leader of the DUP, and moderator of his church.
An effective counter-campaign, Save Sodomy from Ulster, was the brainchild of Tarlach Mac Niallais. Link : CoVid-19 Has Taken Tarlach Mac Niallais From Us in New York – A Courageous Fighter from North Belfast who “Saved Sodomy from Ulster”

In Ireland, Christianity took over public life after the partition settlement of 1922. The Catholic Church controlled key parts of the state in the 26 county southern bit. In the North the Orange State was a Protestant State for a Protestant People.
Read the rest of this entry »The Border Partitioning Ireland – Credible opinion polls, Brexit, and Perfidious Albion
A new credible opinion poll in the six county bit of Ireland states the following :
This matters, because under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA), if a six county (Northern Ireland) referendum results in a pro United Ireland majority, partition will be dead.
There is no reason to doubt the accuracy of this survey – it is consistent with many other recent opinion polls.
Under the GFA, the NI Secretary of State (currently Chris Heaton-Harris) has the power to call a referendum. This Westminster minister is not obliged to call a referendum unless a series of surveys indicate that a majority of voters in the six county statelet (NI) will vote for a change in the constitutional status.
This was a perfect arrangement for the Dublin and London governments in 1998 – a big majority of the people living in Ireland (on both sides of the border) voted to accept a Unionist Veto. No real prospect of a shift in attitudes seemed possible. But something big happened in 2016 which is having long-term results : Brexit.
Read the rest of this entry »
