Tomás Ó Flatharta

Looking at Things from the Left

Posts Tagged ‘brexit

GE2024 Forecast: Final Predictions and Analysis; British General Election

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Ell’s final calls for GE2024.

My final forecast for #GE2024

In the early hours of July 5 2024 we will know if this Stats for Lefties forecast is accurate. It covers Wales, Scotland, and England.

Comparing the real result with the forecast will be interesting.


Six County Statelet (Northern Ireland) predictions are here :
Six County Seat Predictions, Electoral Calculus

Copyright Steve Bell 2023/All Rights Reserved e.mail: belltoons@ntlworld.com tel: 00 44 (0)1273 500664
Sammy Wilson, Ian Paisley Junior – DUP candidates backed by Putin’s favourite parrot, the English Far-Right politician Nigel Farage

Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?

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Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.

MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.

All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.

Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North

This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.

Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party

The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction

None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction

A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.

Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?

Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction

John Meehan June 27 2024

Robert Ballagh’s “The Thirtieth of January”: A Bloody Sunday Painting and the Troubles in the Two Bits of Ireland

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In this interview the artist Robert Ballagh discusses the painting “The Thirtieth of January”, depicting Bloody Sunday in Derry in 1972. The conversation provides valuable insights into Ballagh’s personal experiences and artistic process, shedding light on the political and social context of the time.

The interview provides a unique insight into the historical and cultural significance of the painting.

Critical issues related to the Irish government’s response to the conflict, the impact of the Bloody Sunday event, and the broader social and political implications are highlighted. Ballagh’s commentary on the role of the Irish government, the impact on nationalist communities, and the establishment of the Special Criminal Court adds depth to the discussion.

Bloody Sunday Painting – the Thirtieth of January – Robert Ballagh


Thursday, January 20 2022. John Meehan interviews the artist Robert Ballagh in Number Five Arbour Hill.

We are talking about Robert’s painting : The Thirtieth of January, a representation of Bloody Sunday in Derry, January 30 1972.

John Meehan :

Why did you zone in on Derry’s Bloody Sunday , and put so much effort into making this painting? What makes it different from so many other big events during “The Troubles” in the north of Ireland, which lasted for 30 years, from 1968 to 1998?



Robert Ballagh


Well, it’s a long time ago now 50 years, but I have to say that it had an enormous effect on me, and I don’t think I’m alone with that historical experience. I suppose one thing I should say, I was only thinking about this, and I haven’t said anything about this experience to others. I’m a Dubliner. I’ve lived all my life in Dublin. But unlike most Dubliners – it wasn’t by design – I had an extraordinary rich knowledge of the North of Ireland, before the conflict began. Because I was a professional musician in a showband. We used to play at least once or twice a week in the north. So I was in every town village or city in the north that had a ballroom or ballrooms. And so I experienced the reality of life in that society, and became very aware of the sectarian differences, shall we say – the nature of the society, which people didn’t appreciate at all. I tell one very short story to illustrate that. We played fairly regularly in one of the very popular ballrooms in Belfast : Romano’s in Queen Street. We developed quite a following! In the show business vernacular the word groupie was used. These girls used follow us, they came down to Dublin once or twice to hear us. And we were playing one night in Romano’s.

Robert Ballagh’s “The Thirtieth of January”

After the dance, they came up and we’re talking to us. They asked “When are you playing again in Belfast?”.
I remember saying “Oh, I think we’re here next week.”
“Oh, really?”
“Yeah – we’re playing in a ballroom called the Astor” which I knew was in Smithfield.
And they said, “Oh, we can’t go there.” And I said, “Why?” – because it was a public ballroom. It wasn’t attached to any organization or anything. It was a public ballroom.
They said, “Oh, no, that’s a taig hall”
And it was the first time I realized, and we realized, that our fan base in Belfast was Protestant.

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Written by tomasoflatharta

May 28, 2024 at 8:50 am

Posted in 2018 Referendum to Repeal the 8th Amendment to the Irish Constitution, 26 County State (Ireland), Abortion, Archbishop John Charles McQuaid, Arts and Culture, “A Carnival of Reaction” - James Connolly’s Warning About the Partition of Ireland, Bloody Sunday, Bloody Sunday, Derry, January 30 1972, Britain, British Empire, British State (aka UK), British State Collusion with Loyalist Murder Gangs, British Tory Party, Catholic Church, Child Abuse, Derry, Derry Civil Rights March, October 5 1968, Drew Harris, Garda Commissioner, Drew Harris, Roya; Ulster Constabulary and An Gárda Síochána, Dublin Governments, Feminism, Fourth International, Garda Síochána, Good Friday Agreement 1998, History of Ireland, International Political Analysis, Ireland, Legislation in Ireland to Legalise Abortion, Mass Action, Miami Showband Massacre, 1975, Paul Murphy TD Dublin South-West, Police Forces in Ireland, Referendum in 1998, Deletion of Articles 2 and 3 from the Irish Constitution, Referendums, Religions, Revolutionary History, RISE, Robert Ballagh, Artist,Political Activist, Robert Ballagh’s Painting, January the Thirtieth, RUC/PSNI, Six County State, Special Criminal Court, Ireland, Unionism, Vatiban, War and an Irish Town (Eamonn McCann)

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Saving Sodomy from Ulster – Public professions of Christianity frequently mask horrible crimes

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Slugger O’Toole is a politically liberal site based in the 6 county bit of Ireland. One of its writers observes :

One of the great lessons in life is that the more someone publicly professes to be a ‘Christian,’ the more unchristian their private life is.

Years ago, I met one of the leading figures in the Save Ulster From Sodomy Campaign. I have a surprisingly good gaydar for a straight guy, and it was pinging off the chart. This guy had spent much of the 70s and 80s persecuting gays while himself being as gay as Eurovision. I felt sorry for him; he was a product of his upbringing. To live your life as a lie and with such self-loathing must be very tiring on the soul.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2024/03/30/public-morality-private-hypocrisy/

The Save Ulster from Sodomy campaign was a vicious anti-gay operation run by the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) and the Reverend Ian Paisley’s Free Presbyterian church. Paisley, a busy man, was leader of the DUP, and moderator of his church.

An effective counter-campaign, Save Sodomy from Ulster, was the brainchild of Tarlach Mac Niallais. Link : CoVid-19 Has Taken Tarlach Mac Niallais From Us in New York – A Courageous Fighter from North Belfast who “Saved Sodomy from Ulster”

Ian Paisley’s DUP Tried and Failed to “Save Ulster from Sodomy”. Tarlach Mac Niallais led the Counter-Charge – a Man who Saved Sodomy from Ulster.

In Ireland, Christianity took over public life after the partition settlement of 1922. The Catholic Church controlled key parts of the state in the 26 county southern bit. In the North the Orange State was a Protestant State for a Protestant People.

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The Border Partitioning Ireland – Credible opinion polls, Brexit, and Perfidious Albion

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A new credible opinion poll in the six county bit of Ireland states the following :

This matters, because under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA), if a six county (Northern Ireland) referendum results in a pro United Ireland majority, partition will be dead.

There is no reason to doubt the accuracy of this survey – it is consistent with many other recent opinion polls.

Under the GFA, the NI Secretary of State (currently Chris Heaton-Harris) has the power to call a referendum. This Westminster minister is not obliged to call a referendum unless a series of surveys indicate that a majority of voters in the six county statelet (NI) will vote for a change in the constitutional status.

This was a perfect arrangement for the Dublin and London governments in 1998 – a big majority of the people living in Ireland (on both sides of the border) voted to accept a Unionist Veto. No real prospect of a shift in attitudes seemed possible. But something big happened in 2016 which is having long-term results : Brexit.

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