The Border Partitioning Ireland – Credible opinion polls, Brexit, and Perfidious Albion
A new credible opinion poll in the six county bit of Ireland states the following :
This matters, because under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA), if a six county (Northern Ireland) referendum results in a pro United Ireland majority, partition will be dead.
There is no reason to doubt the accuracy of this survey – it is consistent with many other recent opinion polls.
Under the GFA, the NI Secretary of State (currently Chris Heaton-Harris) has the power to call a referendum. This Westminster minister is not obliged to call a referendum unless a series of surveys indicate that a majority of voters in the six county statelet (NI) will vote for a change in the constitutional status.
This was a perfect arrangement for the Dublin and London governments in 1998 – a big majority of the people living in Ireland (on both sides of the border) voted to accept a Unionist Veto. No real prospect of a shift in attitudes seemed possible. But something big happened in 2016 which is having long-term results : Brexit.
Read the rest of this entry »According to Ireland’s constitution, a woman’s duties are in the home – but a referendum could be about to change its sexist wording
Eamon DeValera’s 1937 Irish Constitution contains symbolic sexist wording – the “woman in the home” clause. Laura Cahillane explains why almost everyone on the Irish and feminist left is advocating a Yes vote.
Laura Cahillane, University of Limerick
On March 8 – International Women’s Day – Irish citizens will vote in a referendum on whether or not to replace the so-called “woman in the home” clause in the Irish constitution.
This clause, which dates from 1937, specifies that: “The State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved.” It goes on to say that: “The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home.”
Originally, the purpose of the provision was to acknowledge the importance of care in the home, which was then provided almost exclusively by mothers. The purpose was to ensure that mothers could remain in the home and would not be forced to work due to financial reasons.
However, the state help implied by the wording was never actually put into practice – women were never supported to provide care in the home. Worse, the constitution was often used to bolster arguments that a woman’s place was in the home and that policies which excluded women from work were acceptable.
Now, as part of a double referendum, Irish citizens will have the chance to change the constitution to a more gender-neutral wording. This is alongside another vote on whether to change the constitution’s definition of “family” to expand it beyond marriage.
Read the rest of this entry »Is Independence the “Settled Will” of the Scottish People in the 2020’s?
Recent political events in England and Wales suggest chaos : Support for Rishi Sunak’s Tories is dive bombing. The excellent Stats for Lefties site regularly updates numbers, and they are startling :
At the same time Keir Starmer’s Labour Party seems to be busting a gut : Is it desperately snatching general election defeat from the jaws of victory? Readers are probably aware of Starmer’s deeply unpopular refusal to oppose Israeli genocide in Palestine. Did Sir Keir Starmer say Israel has the right to cut off food water and electricity to 2 million people in Gaza?
Starmer might be scoring an own-goal in Scotland. This Bella Caledonia article reviews the latest developments. Source : The Settled Will About the Author Mike Small : Mike Small
The Settled Will
How do you understand the latest polling from IPSOS which puts the SNP ahead of Labour by seven points and predicts they would pick up 40 seats in the next General Election?
At the last general election IPSOS predicted the SNP would win 48 seats (and were the most accurate pollster to predict the result). The SNP would indeed later win 48 seats. If the ‘extinction event’ that is predicted for the Conservatives this would mean the SNP taking 70% of available seats in Scotland. If Labour annihilate the Tories in England as looks very likely, there’s a possibility of the SNP becoming the official opposition.
The wider party prediction seat prediction is:
SNP 40
Labour 13
Conservatives 2
Lib Dems 2

Emily Gray from IPSOS Scotland said: “The SNP lead by 7 points on General Election voting intention, but Labour are narrowing the gap. There’s a Rise in public trust in Scottish Labour, including on the NHS and the economy – though SNP still the most trusted party.”
What’s going on?
Read the rest of this entry »“Israeli basketball player accuses Ireland of anti-Semitism ahead of European qualifier” – Mary Hannigan Report, Irish Times (Updated)
Basketball Ireland says comments were ‘inflammatory and wholly inaccurate’ and has raised them with basketball’s governing body
Unconfirmed reports suggested an Ireland v Israel Basketball match in Lativa, scheduled for February 8 2024, would not go ahead. Unfortunately the match happened, but it was not “business as usual” :

Ten out of Ten to Mary Hannigan for filing this report in the Irish Times :
As if there wasn’t already enough heat surrounding Ireland’s basketball meeting with Israel in Latvia on Thursday evening, the comments of Dor Saar, one of the Israeli squad, have added yet more fuel to the fire.
Speaking to Israel’s official basketball site, which noted that the team isn’t “officially talking about the Irish and their behaviour lately”, Saar, a United States-based student, said: “It’s known that they [Ireland] are quite anti-Semitic, it’s not a secret, so we are expecting an intense game. We need to show that we’re better than them and to win. We speak about it between ourselves, we know that they don’t love us so we will leave everything on the court, as always. And especially in this game.”
Basketball Ireland responded with no little fury to Saar’s comments, branding them, in a statement to the Irish Independent, as “inflammatory and wholly inaccurate”, saying that they had raised her remarks with Fiba, the International Basketball Federation.
Fiba, meanwhile, have said that they will look into online posts by the Israeli federation which featured photos of the Israeli Defence Force’s mixed gender Bardelas battalion, dubbed the Cheetahs, visiting the team in the build-up to the game, one showing an assault weapon lying at the side of the court where they were training.
The Cheetahs include several female soldiers who have been active in Gaza since October. “We are moved by the connection between the Cheetahs unit and the Israel women’s basketball team, which reflects the support of civil society for the IDF,” said Nir Galili, chief executive of the team’s sponsor, Sonol Energy.
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Ultra-loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson live-tweeting “secret” DUP meeting
Ultra-loyalist blogger Jamie Bryson is live-tweeting the “secret” DUP
meeting where Sir Jeffrey Donaldson is trying to persuade his party to return to
Stormont.
Could you make it up?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-northern-ireland-politics-68031910
Our friends at the Cedar Lounge Revolution are also enjoying the DUP carnage :
Perhaps this is the best highlight :
Suggested now in meeting turn of electronics; someone mutters “but JD needs it for his power point”. Chaos
Rosa Luxemburg – “one of the most brilliant minds ever drawn to the socialist movement” – Plus Leninist Days – 100 Years Without Him, 100 Years With Him CIEN AÑOS SIN LENIN – CIEN AÑOS CON ÉL
We thank Paul Le Blanc for advertising this series of valuable online meetings.
More about Paul Le Blanc : Paul Le Blanc has for many years been a teacher and activist in Pittsburgh. His writings include “Lenin and the Revolutionary Party” and “A Short History of the US Working Class”. Source ; https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?auteur181
Socialism or Barbarism – Why Rosa Luxemburg Matters Today
With Paul Le Blanc & Helen Scott, co-editors of the acclaimed Rosa Luxemburg: Socialism or Barbarism collection of writings. Rosa Luxemburg was one of the most brilliant minds ever drawn to the socialist movement – an outstanding theorist & a political activist. This forum will look at the relevance of her ideas for transforming a world in crisis today – & how her work was broad in scope tackling capitalism and socialism; globalisation & imperialism; war and peace; social struggles, unions & parties; class, gender, race; the interconnection of humanity with the environment & more. Part of the Socialist Ideas Series – presented by Arise – a Festival of Left Ideas & Labour Outlook.
Why Rosa Luxemburg Matters Today

LENINIST DAYS / JORNADAS LENINISTAS
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