In the early days of 2024 thoughts turn to the next general election in Ireland which will create the 34^th Dáil Éireann no later than February 2025.

Before that, in May 2024, voters in the 26 county bit of Ireland elect local authority councillors and members of the European Parliament.

All reliable opinion surveys suggest Sinn Féin will be the biggest party after the next Dáil general election, and that the current FFFGGG (Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens) coalition may stay in office.

The post here looks at relevant statistics :

Irish Elections Projections

Sinn Féin does not rule out coalition with the right-wing parties, and – once we ignore silly point-scoring – we can see that Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens do not rule out coalition with Sinn Féin. Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is explicit on this point :

Fianna Fáil Leader Micheál Martin opens the door to coalition with Sinn Féin

The prospect of such a government should send shivers down the spine of any self-respecting supporter of the radical left in Ireland.

Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG), two tweedledum and tweedledee capitalist parties, have controlled every government running the southern 26 county bit of partitioned Ireland since a 1921 Treaty was signed with the former occupying power, Britain. A carnival of reaction followed on both sides of the Irish border.

Faced with a false choice between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the only rational policy for the left was and is: no coalition, on principle, with any right-wing party. 

Colm Breathnach explores the issue very well :

Socialists and Coalition with Sinn Féin – Colm Breathnach, Independent Left

People Before Profit calls for a left Sinn Féin government excluding, on principle, any coalition with the right-wing.

But is this likely?

An increasing number of left-wing observers are noting a Sinn Féin move to the “centre” (I prefer the word “right”). The Irish Times columnist Una Mullally explores this issue (see the article below).

Mullally asks a very relevant question :

Will Sinn Féin in 2024 still just be the “attack dog” of opposition, or will a vision of what it will look like in government be clearly articulated? The spats and point-scoring episodes are boring people. Voters don’t like politics being played, they want to see its (positive) impact on their lives.

The writer then zones in on the November 23 2023 racist riots in Dublin :

An example of these pointless games was in the aftermath of the Dublin riots in November, when Mary Lou McDonald posted a photo on social media of a person drinking from a can on a doorstep near the school on Parnell Square where that awful attack occurred. This was ill-judged in many ways, not least because on this same square, Sinn Féin has had its head office for years. Was their leader not uniquely positioned to do something more seismic within that immediate community than merely tweet?

Many Irish elected representatives have added fuel to the racist fire by saying that communities have not been “consulted” over housing the homeless.

This “consultation” criticism of state agencies (some of which has come from left-wing sources) over housing people in Ireland who have no roof over their heads (no matter where they were born) needs to be dumped. It is NIMBY (Not in My Back Yard) politics. In practice it means the far-right can organise protests at targeted buildings, normalises racist publicity, and makes it easier to burn homes for the homeless.

In this context the Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald attacks the rights of Ukrainians in Ireland who have fled from a Russian genocidal attack on their country.

See Garrett Mullan’s response here :

The comments of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald TD on Ukrainian refugees in Ireland are a mistake

The depressing factor in all of this is that polling and electoral evidence continues to show that the racist far-right in Ireland is weak and very unpopular.

A number of mainstream politicians are aware of this factor, so contradictions are coming out into the open.

Councillors from the government parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are using the “consultation” excuse over the burning of housing for the homeless – but, to his credit, the minister for Higher Education Simon Harris is pouring scorn on these excuses for racist arson :

Fire broke out in the vacant Shipwright pub in Ringsend on New Year’s Eve, with gardaí confirming it was the work of arsonists. It had been intended to be used as accommodation for 14 homeless families.

The Dublin Regional Homeless Executive (DRHE) has defended the service after some local politicians said they were not told of the plans to create homeless accommodation at the centre. Fine Gael councillor Danny Byrne was among those to criticise the DRHE, suggesting the attack might not have happened if there had been “clear communication” about the building’s planned use.

His party colleague, Mr Harris, said communication with communities was “extraordinarily important”. However, he said: “I don’t believe that in and of itself would have made a blind bit of difference because the people who torched a building – not prejudicing the investigation – aren’t people who wanted better communication. They’re people who are spreading hatred.

Irish Times, January 4 2024

“Whataboutery” and “attack dog” criticism of a government minister is not a useful response to Mr Harris. On this single important question his point is valid. And here is a follow-up point : Simon Harris knows that Garda boss Drew Harris favours a “hug-a-thug” policy towards the far-right – Drew Harris Hug-a-Thug Policing Policy. Yet Simon Harris, along with his FFFGGG colleagues, defeated a PBP and Sinn Féin no-confidence Dáil resolution which would have ended Drew Harris’s garda boss job.

It should be clear that the need for principled anti-racist policies is closely related to left wing activists and elected representatives ruling out governmental coalition with the right-wing capitalist parties.

John Meehan January 4 2024

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Voters need less of the ‘attack dog’ from Sinn Féin

The spats and point-scoring episodes are boring

Source : Una Mullally, Irish Times, January 1 2024

This year will be a bumper year for elections. More than 40 per cent of the world’s population will hold national elections across more than 40 countries. States including the US, India, the UK (probably), Pakistan, South Africa, Russia, Bangladesh, Algeria, Senegal, Rwanda and Iran will go to the polls. Taiwan will also hold elections. Mexico’s election in June will see two female candidates competing for president. In the European Union, Finland, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, will hold national elections. The European Parliament elections are also taking place. And then there’s Ireland, where a general election will happen in 2024 or early 2025. Whenever it is held, it will be the most dramatic election in many people’s lifetimes to date.

Sinn Féin holds around a third of voter support. The nitpicking over the party dropping or gaining the occasional point in polls and hypothesising about who may or may not accompany it into government misses the bigger picture. The bigger picture is that magic third. Sinn Féin is on course to win the most seats in the next general election.

Should that election take place this year, it will mark the 10th anniversary of a remarkable year for the party, something that tends to be overlooked. In 2014, it was the most popular political party in the republic, following the local elections of that year. Fine Gael was at 21 per cent, Fianna Fáil at 20 per cent, and Sinn Féin at 22 per cent. The combination of “other” – smaller political parties and independents – was at 23 per cent.

The reason I find this three-way split so compelling is that it returned in that famous 2020 general election exit poll that sent shockwaves through the Irish political system: 22, 22, 22. As the haze cleared, another three-way figure clarified the state of play; 24.5 per cent first-preference vote share for Sinn Féin, 22.2 per cent for Fianna Fáil, 20.9 per cent for Fine Gael. These days, Sinn Féin finds itself floating around the 32 per cent figure.

In 2020, 48 per cent of voters said the statement closest to their view was “best to have a change of government.” Thirty one per cent agreed that the “country needs a radical change in direction.” And so in 2020, 79 per cent of voters either wanted a radical change in direction or a change of government. This is why “change” as Sinn Féin’s mantra is so important. It’s popular.

But what flavour is that change? We know Sinn Féin wants a united Ireland, but what will that new Ireland look like? What kind of country will we live in? What values will it have?

Point-scoring episodes

Will Sinn Féin in 2024 still just be the “attack dog” of opposition, or will a vision of what it will look like in government be clearly articulated? The spats and point-scoring episodes are boring people. Voters don’t like politics being played, they want to see its (positive) impact on their lives.

An example of these pointless games was in the aftermath of the Dublin riots in November, when Mary Lou McDonald posted a photo on social media of a person drinking from a can on a doorstep near the school on Parnell Square where that awful attack occurred. This was ill-judged in many ways, not least because on this same square, Sinn Féin has had its head office for years. Was their leader not uniquely positioned to do something more seismic within that immediate community than merely tweet?

Sinn Féin has 36 TDs, but the broader public only really tends to hear from five; McDonald, Pearse Doherty, Eoin Ó Broin, David Cullinane and Louise O’Reilly. Would a majority of people on the average Irish street be able to pick Matt Carthy, Darren O’Rourke, Kathleen Funchion, Clare Kerrane, Imelda Munster or John Brady out of a line-up? I am not convinced.

Sinn Féin knows it has ended up filling a vacuum. The party’s popularity, therefore, is about people seeking an alternative of which Sinn Féin is the most visible representation. So, what voters need now is the big picture: values and detail, plans and policies. Ahead of a general election, voters want to know what change actually means.

McDonald often speaks of ambition. I thought the line with most impact in her end-of-year interview with Pat Leahy was this: “Things take too long.” The lack of efficiency in getting big things done in Ireland is enraging. Fix that, win everything.

People want change because they know the big things are fundamentally broken, and that successive governments have adopted a “don’t ask me, I just work here” stance. What many people want is structural change so that systemic change can be enabled; a complete ideological change in housing policy, radical reform of local government, an overhaul of the Civil Service, a new health system, massive progress on transport infrastructure, a genuine public school system, huge investment in mental health and childcare.

Funnily enough, the one policy that most think isn’t to the forefront of the public’s mind could actually enable such radical change: a united Ireland. In a new country, big things can happen. But that will take time. Until then, Sinn Féin must outline what its version of a new Ireland – united or not – looks like.