Archive for the ‘Liz Truss, ex British Prime Minister’ Category
British General Election 2024 – Highlights and Lowlights – Loveless Landslide, Sandcastle Majority. Far-Right Hiding in Plain Sight, House of Paisley Falls in Antrim – and a Message of Hope from new MP Shockat Adam, Leicester South
Let’s start with positive news :
Shockat Adam MP, Leicester South – “This is for the people of Gaza”.
When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.
Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :
Read the rest of this entry »Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.
Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?
Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction
John Meehan June 27 2024
General election 2024 (Britain): Sunak throws the dice
General election 2024 (Britain): Sunak throws the dice : “Drowning Street” plus “Things Can Only Get Wetter”
Thursday 23 May 2024, by KELLAWAY Dave
Dave Kellaway reacts to Rishi Sunak’s surprise call for a July 4 general election
Contents
From Europe Solidaire Sans Frontières (ESSF) link :
https://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article70844
Sometimes the beginning contains the end. ‘Drowning Street’ and ‘Things can only get wetter’ were among the headlines in the newspapers the day after Rishi Sunak’s announcement of the July 4th general election. He hoped for gravitas and drama that could somehow jolt the polls. Instead, he stood there getting completely pissed on. His voice was drowned out by an anti-Brexit protester broadcasting the 1997 Blair anthem, Things will only get better. It is almost as though his team hung him out to dry (or rather to get drenched). Was there really no staffer who knew that the police cannot stop you playing loud music at the bottom of Downing Street? Nobody to even hold an umbrella for the leader? All this expresses his isolation and the dire state of the Tory party as well as a complete lack of political nous.
A few minutes later you had Keir Starmer looking composed and prime ministerial in front of not just one, but two Union Jacks. He gave an intelligible, brisk speech summed up in the word on the rostrum – Change. Labour is not really going to change much but it does not look like it will lose the marketing campaign. Sunak’s excruciating performance was a bit like watching West Ham smashed last week – you knew the game was up when Man City’s Foden scored within two minutes. Nobody doubted the inevitable, City was going to win the league. Images count in elections where most voters get their news from the TV and non-print media.
Read the rest of this entry »Six takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales – Dave Kellaway
Dave Kellaway examines what we have learnt from the recent local and mayoral elections.
Source : 6 takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales
- Tory support is not recovering with Sunak.
In the run-up to these elections, Sunak tacked to the right. The government televised a roundup of migrants preparing for Rwanda flights. Sunak dramatically announced the threat of extremism after Galloway won Rochdale. He warmly welcomed the anti-trans Cass report. The Tories inaccurately attacked Labour as a party wanting to give amnesty to immigrants. They cut National Insurance to fool voters they may be better off amidst a cost of living crisis fuelled by huge rent and mortgage rises.
Sunak is not a great political operator or campaigner. Suella Braverman urges him to go further right by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and setting a more brutal cap on net migration. Some of her allies are trying to cajole former Prime Minister Boris Johnson back into a front-line role. Damian Green and Andy Street, representing the shrinking one-nation conservatives, call for Sunak to return to the political centre. The hard right has deferred replacing him before the general election, as the pretenders likely want to avoid getting tainted by leading the Tories to a big defeat. Everything is being prepared for a major post-election reconfiguration on the right.
Racist Dog-Whistles, Pro-Motorist Rhetoric and Anti-Woke Hysteria
Nigel Farage may be keeping his powder dry for now, aiming to mop up both the Tory Right and the Reform UK Party into a new outfit he can lead. The election results show that racist dog whistles, pro-motorist rhetoric and anti-woke hysteria are not resonating with the electorate. Susan Hall, the pro-Trump London mayoral candidate, led the Tories to an even worse defeat than last time.
Read the rest of this entry »Have British Tories Thrown Jeffrey Donaldson’s Democratic Unionist party to the Wolves? Is the”Windsor Framework” the “NI Protocol” in Different Clothes?
Readers may wonder :
Has British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak thrown the Democratic Unionist party of British-occupied Ireland to the wolves? Early indications suggest the answer is Yes.
The cause? Brexit.
Sunak’s former boss Boris Johnson’s negotiated a 2019 “Oven Ready Brexit” which featured the “Northern Ireland Protocol” (NIP) in 2019. This facilitated a landslide Tory General Election victory in December of that year. Things were different in the six-county bit of Ireland (Northern Ireland) and Scotland. In both of these locations, the Brexiteer forces were soundly rejected by the voters. Sunak now claims the NIP has been replaced by the “Windsor Framework”.
Establishment media outlets are ecstatic, claiming the Third British Brexit Prime Minister of 2021 has “Done the Impossible”
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/02/28/windsor-framework-brexit-deal-what-the-papers-say/
There is one significant dissenting note, which is almost certainly closer to the truth. It comes from the outstanding British Guardian cartoonist Steve Bell :
Read the rest of this entry »“Neither faction of the Conservatives is nicer. But, for the moment, Trumpian Conservatism is dead. It’s back to food banks and dole queues and cuts to services” – David Renton
The British socialist David Renton offers an interesting analysis of the turmoil in the 2022 British Tory Party – Three Prime Ministers in quick succession – and he warns :
Sunak’s Conservatives will be more socially liberal than the people who backed Liz Truss or Boris Johnson. But they will also be much more ardent cutters – and this at a time when inflation is at 10%, interest rates are rising, and fuel bills are rocketing…
A contrast – The Financial Times reports
Markets look forward to “dullness dividend” in wake of Truss turbulence
Changing of the Guard 💂♀️ in London’s 10 Downing Street – British Prime Ministers 2022
Brilliant Satirists are superb political analysts – getting the message across, injecting lethal poison into the heart of a terminally ill body. Examples :
Solutions? Smashing Brexit would be an excellent start!
Tomás Ó Flatharta 