Posts Tagged ‘john-curtice’
British General Election 2024, GE2024 : The Scottish National party may be gaining ground on Starmer’s Unionist Labour Outfit – Election Expert John Curtice Crunches new numbers
Sometimes, a campaign alters the balance of forces in a significant manner. We can compare this fresh statistical evidence from Scotland with the real result which will appear in the early hours of Friday July 5 2024. Has British Unionist Sir Keir Starmer snatched defeat from victory in Scotland?
Link :
How John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s battered reputation – John Curtice
Sir John Curtice on how John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s ‘battered reputation’
Sir John Curtice delivers his assessment of the latest poll results from Savanta, for The Scotsman
Labour look set to make significant gains north of the border. And the SNP are at risk of falling short of their target of winning at least half of Scotland’s seats at Westminster.
However, the battle between them now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Mr Sunak called the election six weeks ago.
At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.
Read the rest of this entry »Six takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales – Dave Kellaway
Dave Kellaway examines what we have learnt from the recent local and mayoral elections.
Source : 6 takeaways from the May 2024 local and mayoral elections in England and Wales
- Tory support is not recovering with Sunak.
In the run-up to these elections, Sunak tacked to the right. The government televised a roundup of migrants preparing for Rwanda flights. Sunak dramatically announced the threat of extremism after Galloway won Rochdale. He warmly welcomed the anti-trans Cass report. The Tories inaccurately attacked Labour as a party wanting to give amnesty to immigrants. They cut National Insurance to fool voters they may be better off amidst a cost of living crisis fuelled by huge rent and mortgage rises.
Sunak is not a great political operator or campaigner. Suella Braverman urges him to go further right by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and setting a more brutal cap on net migration. Some of her allies are trying to cajole former Prime Minister Boris Johnson back into a front-line role. Damian Green and Andy Street, representing the shrinking one-nation conservatives, call for Sunak to return to the political centre. The hard right has deferred replacing him before the general election, as the pretenders likely want to avoid getting tainted by leading the Tories to a big defeat. Everything is being prepared for a major post-election reconfiguration on the right.
Racist Dog-Whistles, Pro-Motorist Rhetoric and Anti-Woke Hysteria
Nigel Farage may be keeping his powder dry for now, aiming to mop up both the Tory Right and the Reform UK Party into a new outfit he can lead. The election results show that racist dog whistles, pro-motorist rhetoric and anti-woke hysteria are not resonating with the electorate. Susan Hall, the pro-Trump London mayoral candidate, led the Tories to an even worse defeat than last time.
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Tomás Ó Flatharta 