Diana O’Dwyer presents a refreshingly honest and interesting analysis of the November 29 2024 Irish General Election result. No attempt is made to hide an obvious fact : this was a setback for the left.
People Before Profit’s (PBP) slogan during the election campaign was “End 100 years of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael”. But now we are facing into yet another Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael (FF-FG) government. Why has this happened? Are we stuck in a never-ending Groundhog Day or does hope for radical change remain?
After the last election in 2020, escape from a century of FF-FG rule seemed not just possible but probable. The cycle of alternation between the two frenemies had finally been broken with the identical twins of Irish capitalism forced into a grand coalition, propped up by the Green Party with external support from right-wing Independent TDs. [2] The 2008 economic crash and the decade of social upheaval and struggle that followed had enabled Sinn Féin (SF) to steal the mantle of the largest party in the Dáil for the first time and it looked certain to lead the next government.
But now, almost 5 years later, FF and FG have returned with an extra 13 seats and are only one seat short of a majority – compared to 7 short last time. They are not any more popular than they were in 2020 – their share of the vote actually fell slightly (by 0.4%). But in a situation with little in the way of class struggle and where no clear alternative was posed, they were able to maintain and even improve their position. FF topped the poll at 22%, followed by FG on 21% and SF on 19%.
It is certain the two right-wing parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (FFFG) which controlled the outgoing right-wing coalition will form the new government – their previous mudguard, the Green party, was destroyed – coming back with one seat, and losing 11. FFFG can pick new partners. They won 86 seats out of 174 seats, only two seats short of a majority.
We start with important data on the rise of racism in Ireland. Extreme racist candidates polled badly in this general election. Despite the emergence of violent racist organisations in the last 18 months – the majority of Irish citizens remain hostile to this dangerous political cancer.
Exit Poll latest update: Most voters support current level of asylum seeker State benefits or believe they should be expanded, latest election exit poll data shows. #election2024 http://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202…
Sinn Féin’s governmental ambitions fizzled out. The polling attrition suffered by Sinn Féin during the middle part of the year strongly influenced the nature of the campaign. With no real sense that the government parties might be ejected from power, the election was a low-energy affair, with turnout dropping below 60% for the first time in the history of the state.
Analysis: In a year when ruling parties around the world lost elections, Ireland’s outgoing coalition parties bucked that trend
At the end of a year that saw parties around the world punished by voters, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have managed to avoid the incumbents’ curse. The coalition partners’ combined first preference votes fell by just 0.4 points – to 42.7% – compared with the 2020 general election. This is a remarkable result, given the high cost of living and continuing housing crisis – all the more so for Fine Gael, which has been in government since 2011.
Sinn Féin’s popularity was the story of the 2020 general election. It emerged as the first choice of nearly a quarter of the electorate (24.5%) but failed to nominate enough candidates to capitalise on this and ended up with fewer seats than Fianna Fáil.
Biding its time in opposition, the party set to work presenting itself as a government in waiting. The polls seemed to confirm this status. The party’s popularity peaked at 36% in 2022 but this figure underwent a slow – and then rapid – decline. An unwillingness to adopt an anti-immigration position, when the issue was becoming politicised in Ireland, saw it lose support with some of its supporters.
This was confirmed in June at the local and European elections. The party’s 11.8% vote share was a very poor showing. Subsequent scandals around the party, on both sides of the border, further damaged its standing with the electorate.
Sinn Féin’s share of 19% of the first preference vote on Friday represents a partial recovery for the party. But it is, nonetheless, a steep decline (5.5 %) from their 2020 performance, leaving Sinn Féin with no realistic path to power.
Unfortunately Sinn Féin was willing “to adopt an anti-immigration position” after some initial hesitation. Faced with rising racist agitation in deprived communities, the party pandered to reactionary sentiments. The main capitalist parties did the same – they discovered an issue that could be used to forward a right-wing agenda on a number of fronts. As a result, Sinn Féin lost support to its right – and to its left. The leaflet below, containing anti-immigrant messages, was used all over the state.
In the months leading up to these elections I was struck by messages from friends expressing alarm at this bad turn of events. A number of people said things like “I will not vote for Sinn Féin again”; “I would find it hard to give them a preference” and so on. I wondered if this trend was in any way representative – after all most people in my circle are further left than the general population! The general election proved these sentiments were not isolated.
Most political commentary on the general election notes setbacks suffered by scattered street-gang mini-Hitlers. Candidates like this – for example Malachy Steenson in the Dublin North Inner-City – emerged from the margins, and gained significant electoral support in the June 2024 local elections. They did not repeat their success in the November 2024 general election – they went backwards.
A more dangerous development occurred. A significant number of deputies from the ruling FFFG coalition, and Sinn Féin, promoted or dog-whistled at racist policies. At least 18 successful TD’s [Dáil Deputies] (gombeens) promote racist and misogynistic policies which have gone mainstream. These monsters are a throwback to a Catholic reactionary state that banned abortion, divorce and gay people – a state that threw women out of the workforce, that banished babies and single women to religious prisons run by the Catholic Church. Today’s far-right are disguised in the suits, ties, scarves and daily hairdos of Aontú, the Independent Ireland (II) Party, and a busload of independent TD’s begging for rewards from the new FFFG coalition : a mercs and perks brigade. Two additions to this gang in the new Dáil are Ken O’Flynn ( [II] Cork North-Central) and Gillian Toole [Independent gombeen racist] (Meath East). Others may come forward.
Nikita Hand Secures a Legal Victory over racist superstar kick-boxer Conor McGregor
During the election campaign a woman called Nikita Hand took a legal civil action, alleging rape, against an international celebrity, the kick-boxing superstar Conor McGregor. McGregor is closely associated with a number of mini-Hitler racists, some of whom were elected to Dublin council seats in June 2024. These included Philip Sutcliffe (Dublin South-Central) and Paddy Holohan (Dublin South-West). Most rape trials in Ireland are held behind closed doors, and the details are not widely broadcast.
This civil action was different : every day horrific evidence was headline news. Nikita Hand won her case.
This case damaged the mini-Hitler racist candidates –
An RTÉ News report contains the following information about Councillor Philip Sutcliffe :
In Dublin, Philip Sutcliffe, the head of Crumlin Boxing Club, was elected for the party. He boxed for Ireland at the Olympics in Moscow in 1980 and Los Angeles in 1984, and was elected in the Ballyfermot-Finglas LEA.
One of his most vocal supporters in the lead-up to election day was well-known publican and MMA fighter Conor McGregor. Cllr Sutcliffe has been McGregor’s boxing coach, travelling to fight camps internationally with McGregor, and featuring in social media posts.
On his Facebook page, where he posted regular updates during the campaign, Cllr Sutcliffe shared his support for Derek Blighe, a prominent right-wing nationalist anti-immigration protester and a candidate with the group ‘Ireland First’.
Mr Blighe regularly speaks about “plantations” and “unvettable fake refugees” at anti-immigration gatherings around the country. He has said the war in Ukraine is a “fake war publicised to encourage economic migrants to come to this country”.
“If you’re in this man’s area, vote [number] one for Derek,” Cllr Sutcliffe posted about Mr Blighe, who was running in the Ireland South European constituency and Fermoy Local Electoral Area against Independent Ireland candidates.
Cllr Sutcliffe also reposted video content from abroad about “refugee grooming gangs” while adding his own words: “Remember all this when voting, our government are letting the likes of their kind into Ireland.”
Cllr Sutcliffe was a first-time candidate and received 821 first preference votes, getting a seat on the 10th count.
During the campaign, as a result of the publicity over the McGregor case, the II party was forced to dump Sutcliffe, but his name still appeared on the ballot paper as an II candidate.
A sizeable protest march supporting Nikita Hand occurred after the verdict :
Women take part in a solidarity demonstration in Dublin after Nikita Hand won her personal injury case against Conor McGregor
Paddy Holohan, McGregor’s sparring partner, polled very well in the June council elections, but did very badly in the General Election. He got 3.7% of No.1 votes, ranked 12th of 16 candidates, with no hope of a seat.
The Gerry Hutch Near-Miss in Dublin Central
A near-miss occurred in Dublin Central, the constituency of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald. Statewide Sinn Féin lost 5.5% of its vote-share compared with 2020.
In Dublin Central the drop was much higher : 12.36%. The party lost votes to its left and right. Many of those votes went to a wealthy businessman-gangster, Gerry Hutch, who advocated a sinister anti-immigrant policy.
Some discussion exists on whether Hutch was a racist candidate. He started his campaign making a few reasonable statements, but then came out with a definitive policy which left no room for doubt – Here is Hutch’s extreme racist campaign platform :
Hutch came fourth in the poll. On Saturday November 30 most election experts predicted Hutch would win a seat after seeing the first count – Hutch looked to be too far ahead of the chasing candidates below him. This news attracted a huge posse from the international media to the main Dublin election count centre on Sunday December 1. They were disappointed.
A landslide “Vote Left, Transfer Left” grassroots heave appeared : against Hutch in favour of the nearest candidate below him, Marie Sherlock (Labour party).
The election guru Michael Marsh noted on RTÉ Radio 1 that a record had probably been set : never before, since all similar Irish elections from 1922, had so many voters transferred so heavily against one candidate.
As the counts were announced, Marsh was visibly astonished : the racists transferred heavily to Hutch : Steenson, Kelly, and Smyth of Aontú.
All other candidates (mainly on the left) transferred to each other – and overwhelmingly against Hutch :
Counts
Hutch’s Share
No.5 (Votes of Daly) (Independents for Change)
137 out of 1539
No. 6 (Votes of Ó Ceannabháin) (People Before Profit)
83 out of 2112
No. 7 (Votes of Steenson [Racist])
1262 out of 2195
No. 8 (Votes of Hourigan [Green party])
26 out of 2352
No. 9 (Surplus of Gannon [Social Democrats])
18 out of 881
Left-wing voters transferred in huge numbers to the second elected candidate Gary Gannon (Social Democrats) and the eventual winner of the fourth seat, Marie Sherlock (Labour party). Transfers from the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates went the same way.
Some may dispute this was a “Vote Left, Transfer Left” phenomenon on the grounds that FFFG votes went overwhelmingly to Sherlock in the last two counts. This is a false and stupid argument. People should grasp the fact that, in this constituency, FFFG voters preferred a Labour party candidate to a racist gangster. That is a sign of hope.
The transfer data in this constituency also shows that Green party voters chose other available left candidates ahead of Hutch, and ahead of the candidates from the two right-wing government coalition parties, FFFG. Comprehensive analysis of data like this in all 43 constituencies is awaited. That said, figures I have seen seem to show that “Vote Left, Transfer Left”, a call promoted by People Before Profit, operated in a large number of constituencies.
I can’t remember who let me know that John Goodwillie had passed away a few days ago – the first person I told was Des Derwin, who has written the tribute below, which contains informative and entertaining scenes from the class struggle in Ireland.
There will be a celebration of John Goodwillie’s life at the Garden Chapel of Mount Jerome Cemetery, which is can be viewed online at 3pm on Tuesday December 10. Condolences to his husband Val, his family, friends, and comrades.
At the time of writing it seems certain the outgoing right-wing coalition controlled by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will form the new government – their previous partners, the Green party, are likely to be wiped out. FFFG will be able to pick new partners.
We start with important data
Exit Poll latest update: Most voters support current level of asylum seeker State benefits or believe they should be expanded, latest election exit poll data shows. #election2024 http://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202…
In this post we concentrate on the issue of racism and the general election, with a particular focus on the Dublin Central constituency.
Here is a final tally displaying most of the first count
The golden rules for winning a seat in a Proportional Representation(PR) election are
1. Secure a winning position in the first count (In this case 4 seats available, Be in the first 4)
2. Secure at least half a quota
This means that McDonald (Sinn Féin), Donohoe (Fine Gael) and Gannon (Social Democrats) are very likely to win a seat each. The last seat is Gerry Hutch (wealthy businessman with a background in organised crime, a racist) Versus one of this chasing pack : Marie Sherlock (Labour party), Neasa Hourigan (Green party), Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit), Clare Daly (Independents for Change). The clear leader of this pack is Marie Sherlock. The transfers of candidates below Sherlock can be examined to see if the slogan Vote left, Transfer left operates effectively, or not.
Some discussion exists on whether Hutch is a racist candidate. He started his campaign making some reasonable statements, but then came out with a definitive policy which left no room for doubt – his campaign platform is extreme racist :
How To Vote on November 29? Oppose Any Coalition with FFFGGG – Stop the Far Right : Vote Left, Transfer Left
FFFGGG Equals ; Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens.
The 2020-2024 coalition government was composed of three parties : FF, FG, and the Greens – and was regularly supported by Right-to-Racist Gombeens (Independents) in the last Dáil.
In this context it is important to know the identity of left-wing and right-wing independent candidates.
A Cedar Lounge Blog writer has done a great job identifying credible candidates on the left who are often categorised as independent. Link : Possible Left Independents in the next Dáil
The European Network for Solidarity with Ukraine (ENSU) has denounced the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the very beginning and fully supports the Ukrainian right of self-defence.
The Ukrainian people’s armed resistance is just. It is not taking place as part of military aggression by NATO, the United States or any Western country, but as defence against the declared war aim of Russian president Vladimir Putin: to reconquer the fictitious “Russian world” supposedly lost with the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Since Ukraine’s armed resistance is legitimate, all states that regard themselves as democratic and upholders of law-governed international relations have the responsibility to help the Ukrainian people defeat the Russian invasion.
nstead of fake doves, listen to those who care enough to actually ask people on the ground about their concerns. Pressure Putin, not us—stop trading with him, for God’s sake. Strengthen Ukraine, with arms, diplomatic efforts, grants, and by raising the voices of the unions & CSO
Li Andersson MEP, Finland, Left Alliance
At the plenary session today, we had a debate on the EU’s support to Ukraine. During our visit to Ukraine, everyone emphasized how this winter will be the hardest period since Putin started his war of aggression. That is why our support is so needed now.
Utmost importance that we stand firm in our solidarity with Ukraine
This is a very stimulating interview with Catherine Samary on solidarity with Palestine and Ukraine – and also about the unstable political scene in France, where President Macron was electorally defeated by the New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire) – and then made an unstable parliamentary deal with the far-right leader Marine Le Pen.
President Macron, Prime Minister Michel Barnier, Far-Right Extremist Marine Le Pen – Versus Left-Wing Resistance
— Before we turn to the discussion of the war in Ukraine and prospects for left internationalism, let’s talk about the recent developments in your home country. How do you analyse the current political situation in France and the role that left-wing politics might play in it?
— Michel Barnier’s new government combines two core elements: racism and attacks on social rights. The latter is evident in the ongoing parliamentary debates over the 2025 budget and social security funding. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (Rassemblement National) has played a key role in these discussions, not least due to the fact that no single party has managed to achieve a stable majority in the French parliament. Even though the result of the New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire) in the recent legislative election, which followed the dissolution of the Assembly last June, was unexpectedly high — and most welcome — it is still only a minor and relative victory.
This situation is unlikely to change unless the various forces within the New Popular Front come together, consolidate their victory, and start a large-scale mobilization. This could be achieved through the creation of local political alliances across the entire country that would be focused on concrete struggles. We should not forget that mass mobilizations against attacks on the social system are still possible — and so is the collapse of the government itself.
The shadow fleet consists of poorly maintained, often uninsured ships with unclear ownership that export Russian oil and gas via the Baltic Sea, in violation of EU sanctions against Russia.
The proceeds from these exports fund the war in Ukraine. The shadow fleet threatens both the environment and the people of Ukraine.
With today’s resolution, which Hanna Gedin and Jonas Sjöstedt (pictured) skilfully succeeded in pushing through in the European Parliament, hard pressure is now being put on both the European Commission and the Member States to take the decisions needed to stop the shadow fleet. This is a great victory for all of us who want to stop the war in Ukraine.
Adults who claim to be on the left are spreading racist porkies.
This is an RTÉ Radio 1 discussion involving 3 independent candidates : Mick Wallace (Wexford candidate), Kate O’Connell (ex Fine Gael TD Dublin Bay South), Marian Harkin TD (Sligo)
Harkin and Wallace play the “Ireland is Full” race card. To her credit, Kate O’Connell promotes an anti-racist message. Mick Wallace is an “Independents for Change” candidate in the November 29 Irish General Election, along with another ex Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Clare Daly.
The Wallace statement provoked a storm of protest from many left wing sources. One example :
Tomás Ó Flatharta 