Archive for the ‘Opinion Polls’ Category
Ireland’s November 29 2024 General Election : Racist Warning Signs
Irish General Election to 34th Dáil; Racist Danger
The June 2024 Euro/ Local results in Ireland produced some alarming results – the racist far-right came from the margins and increased its electoral support. This could be a predictor of the coming General Election result.
Warning signs to anti-racists exist in various opinion surveys. See, for example, these numbers from a recent RedC General Election Opinion Survey) :
Aontú, a right-wing split from Sinn Féin set up by an anti-choice TD from Meath, Peadar Tóibín, is beginning to hoover up right-wing racist votes which were scattered among various mini-Hitlers in the June 2024 European and Local Elections. We can say the same for the Irish Independence party (II). When we note that a majority of independent candidates are part of the racist far-right, a disturbing picture emerges. The numbers are worse in other parts of the Irish state.
Here is the data from an Irish Times Opinion Poll :
| Irish General Election November 29 2024 Irish Times Survey Results 15/11/24 | ||||
| First preference voting intentions | ||||
| Dublin | Rest of Leinster | Munster | Connacht/Ulster | |
| Fianna Fáil | 16.00% | 19.00% | 27.00% | 13.00% |
| Fine Gael | 22.00% | 29.00% | 22.00% | 29.00% |
| Labour | 9.00% | 3.00% | 2.00% | 3.00% |
| Green Party | 6.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% | 2.00% |
| Sinn Fein | 21.00% | 16.00% | 19.00% | 21.00% |
| People Before Profit/Solidarity | 4.00% | 1.00% | 2.00% | 1.00% |
| Social Democrats | 5.00% | 5.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% |
| Aontú | 2.00% | 4.00% | 3.00% | 2.00% |
| Independent candidate | 15.00% | 21.00% | 21.00% | 25.00% |
Temptation exists : bending to “understandable” fears. For example an election canvasser from a party with one foot in the left put it to me that some voters are “uncomfortable” because their neighbours come from outside Ireland.
Let’s be clear, harsh, and unambiguous : messages like this pander to the racist view that immigrants are criminals and rapists. There is no evidence backing up claims that people born outside Ireland are any worse than Irish natives. It gives oxygen to the far right shite being whispered around communities.
Read the rest of this entry »Majority of Irish people welcome migrants who move here to ‘make a better life for themselves’
Survey responses often depend on how the question is framed.
Like me, I am sure many readers are sick and tired of tactics used by many mainstream media organisations to bolster a sinister racist agenda. This is a drum regularly beaten by friends who post at two excellent blogs : Irish Election Projections and the Cedar Lounge Revolution
Sources :
The Journal.ie story :
Majority of Irish people welcome migrants who move here to ‘make a better life for themselves’
Read the rest of this entry »The Irish Left Must Unite to break the old stranglehold – Paul Murphy TD (People Before Profit, Dublin South-West), Irish Times, July 4 2024
Paul Murphy’s opinion piece in the July 4 2024 edition of the Irish Times makes a strong case :
“Another five years of FF/FG rule would be disastrous for the country. Left parties and Independents must come together to stop it happening”
There is a bottom line :
No coalition with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
Time for a new united left alliance to topple Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael
Another five years of FF/FG rule would be disastrous for the country. Left parties and Independents must come together and stop this happening
A general election is looming. If the local election results are repeated, it will mean a return of this Government but with the Greens replaced as the third wheel by right-wing Independents. The 100-year rule of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will continue.
This would be a disaster.
Another five years of their rule would mean a deepening of the crises in housing and health, with more children growing up in emergency accommodation, more adults trapped in their childhood bedroom unable to move out, as well as growing hospital waiting lists. It would mean continued inaction on the climate and biodiversity crises and large numbers of workers in low-paid, precarious employment without the right to collectively bargain.
Read the rest of this entry »British General Election 2024, GE2024 : The Scottish National party may be gaining ground on Starmer’s Unionist Labour Outfit – Election Expert John Curtice Crunches new numbers
Sometimes, a campaign alters the balance of forces in a significant manner. We can compare this fresh statistical evidence from Scotland with the real result which will appear in the early hours of Friday July 5 2024. Has British Unionist Sir Keir Starmer snatched defeat from victory in Scotland?
Link :
How John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s battered reputation – John Curtice
Sir John Curtice on how John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s ‘battered reputation’
Sir John Curtice delivers his assessment of the latest poll results from Savanta, for The Scotsman
Labour look set to make significant gains north of the border. And the SNP are at risk of falling short of their target of winning at least half of Scotland’s seats at Westminster.
However, the battle between them now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Mr Sunak called the election six weeks ago.
At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.
Read the rest of this entry »The June 2024 European and Local Elections in Ireland – What do the results tell us about Irish Politics? – Independent Left Analysis
Independent Left on Election 2024
Independent Left candidate Councillor John Lyons topped the poll in Artane-Whitehall 2024 for first preferences in the local government elections of 7 June 2024. This was a terrific result for our small party and above all is a recognition of the consistent, empathetic and determined work carried out by John for individuals and groups in the community he represents on Dublin City Council. The high vote might also be connected to the values and priorities of Independent Left and this deserves some reflection.
Before getting to that, however, what happened in the bigger picture? What do the results tell us about Irish politics in the snapshot provided by the election?
1. Fine Gael turned public concern onto the question of immigration.
It’s an old and, unfortunately, successful tactic by conservative and governing parties that to deflect from how they have facilitated the rich getting richer, they focus public anxiety on immigrants. In the run up to the election, Fine Gael, and their Fianna Fáil and Green partners in government, forced refugees into homelessness then arranged performances such as bulldozing tents to generate attention to the issue. This worked to put a spotlight on Sinn Féin’s response.
2. The Centre Held?
Ever since COVID restrictions gave fascists a focus to organise around, they’ve been growing in Ireland. By mobilising against refugee centres, they gained a following beyond a fringe. Encouraging people to be angry against immigrants plays right into the hands of these fascists. Fine Gael took a calculated risk on this: they chose to give fascism a boost rather than face the electorate on their record in government. After the election they breathed a sigh of relief and pundits everywhere said that the centre held. The reality, unfortunately, is that fascists did make significant gains. Not the gains that they themselves and their US funders hoped for, but about 5% of the electorate voted far-right in the European elections and in the local elections they got five seats, coming very close to a sixth in Artane-Whitehall.
Read the rest of this entry »New French popular front (uniting trade unions and entire significant left) – against Marine Le Pen and Putin’s fascism : ‘unconditional support for Ukraine against Putin’s aggression’.
Everyone on the left in Ireland and across the globe should warmly welcome this French initiative.
The New Popular Front in France, which unites trade unions, ATTAC, the Socialist Party, the Greens, the Communist Party, France Unbowed (Melenchon) and the NPA [NOUVEAU PARTI ANTICAPITALISTE] (the entire significant left) against the fascist National Rally, includes in it’s platform ‘unconditional support for Ukraine against Putin’s aggression’.
Links :
New French Popular Front – Wikipedia
New French Popular Front website
General Mobilisation Against the far right and Macron, the Popular Front! (NPA)
To defeat Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression, and that he answers for his crimes before international justice: unfailingly defend the sovereignty and freedom of the Ukrainian people as well as the integrity of its borders, by the delivery of necessary weapons, the cancellation of its foreign debt, the seizure of the assets of the oligarchs who contribute to the Russian war effort in the framework allowed by international law, the dispatch of peacekeepers to secure nuclear power plants, in an international context of tension and war on the European continent, and work towards the return of peace.
A June 14 poll shows Marine Le Pen’s far-right, Putin-friendly National Rally at 29.5%, the left-wing New Popular Front at 28.5%, and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renew at 18%. The winner-take-all district elections for the 577 seats in the French National Assembly will be held on June 30. Run-offs between the top two if no one wins a majority in the first round will be held on July 7.
The Border Partitioning Ireland – Credible opinion polls, Brexit, and Perfidious Albion
A new credible opinion poll in the six county bit of Ireland states the following :
This matters, because under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement (GFA), if a six county (Northern Ireland) referendum results in a pro United Ireland majority, partition will be dead.
There is no reason to doubt the accuracy of this survey – it is consistent with many other recent opinion polls.
Under the GFA, the NI Secretary of State (currently Chris Heaton-Harris) has the power to call a referendum. This Westminster minister is not obliged to call a referendum unless a series of surveys indicate that a majority of voters in the six county statelet (NI) will vote for a change in the constitutional status.
This was a perfect arrangement for the Dublin and London governments in 1998 – a big majority of the people living in Ireland (on both sides of the border) voted to accept a Unionist Veto. No real prospect of a shift in attitudes seemed possible. But something big happened in 2016 which is having long-term results : Brexit.
Read the rest of this entry »Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin opens the door to coalition with Sinn Féin
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has said there would be “huge difficulties” with his party going into government with Sinn Féin, but did not rule out the possibility of such a coalition after the next election.
Irish Times December 26 2023
Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG), two tweedledum and tweedledee capitalist parties, have controlled every government running the southern 26 county bit of partitioned Ireland since a 1921 Treaty was signed with the former occupying power, Britain. A carnival of reaction followed on both sides of the Irish border.
Faced with a false choice between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the only rational policy for the left was and is : no coalition, on principle, with any right-wing party.
The need for this policy is explained in this interview with Paul Murphy TD (People Before Profit, Dublin South-West) : To all of them we say: rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – interview with Paul Murphy TD after the February 2020 Irish General Election
Read the rest of this entry »2023 Congress of the The Bloco de Esquerda [Portuguese Left Bloc/ BE] – “two years of intense challenges that tested the coherence of its political project.”
On the electoral and political level the The Bloco de Esquerda [Portuguese Left Bloc/ BE] has similarities to the People Before Profit (PBP) formation in Ireland. In January 2022 the BE suffered a significant electoral reverse in a Portuguese General Election, going from 19 to 5 deputies. The circumstances are described below.
A significant welcome political difference between the BE and the PBP is that the BE is in favour of solidarity with Ukraine, resisting the genocidal Russian imperialist invasion which began in February 2023.
Article sources : https://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article66868 and https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article8135
The Bloco de Esquerda [Portuguese Left Bloc/ BE] held its 13th Congress after two years of intense challenges that tested the coherence of its political project.
Internally, the defence of a free and public National Health Service, the defence of the end of the labour laws of the Troika and the fight against real estate speculation led the Bloco de Esquerda to vote against a State Budget without a trace of left influence.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tomás Ó Flatharta 