Archive for the ‘International Political Analysis’ Category
Sinn Féin Election Disaster – The Price Of Putting Popularity Before Principle – Éirigí Analysis
Éirigí, a socialist-republican organisation, “is a political party that was formed in 2006 by a group of Dublin-based community and political activists. We believe that modern Ireland is a deeply undemocratic, unequal and unfair country not by accident, but by design.” Their analysis of Sinn Féin’s unexpectedly weak showing in the June 7 2024 Irish Local and European Elections highlights how the party was bounced into changing its position on immigration and racism :
With a few notable exceptions, this new talking point was propagated without context – with no detailed critique of migration in the modern world – no attempt to explain why the asylum process is in chaos – no robust defence of the core republican principle of equality – no assertion that racism, sectarianism and xenophobia are the enemies of republicanism – no calling out the peddling of hate and division by the far-right.
For potential Sinn Féin voters, the lesson was clear. The party could be bounced into changing its messaging if there were votes at stake, even when those doing the bouncing were far-right bigots. It seems almost certain that the ease with which Sinn Féin was bounced on the issue of immigration did them more electoral damage than their actual position on immigration.
Sinn Féin Election Disaster – The Price Of Putting Popularity Before Principle
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Sinn Féin Election Disaster – The Price Of Putting Popularity Before Principle – Éirigí analysis
Two weeks have now passed since the Local and European elections in the Twenty-Six Counties. Despite Sinn Féin’s frantic spinning to the contrary, the election was nothing short of an unmitigated disaster for the party. The number of votes and seats secured by the party was even lower than the lowest expectations of pollsters, political commentators and Sinn Féin itself.
As recently as July 2022, support for Sinn Féin was at a level not seen in more than a century. The Irish Times/IPSOS opinion poll for that month found that 36% of voters in the Twenty-Six Counties intended to vote for Sinn Féin.
Fourteen months later, in September 2023, the same poll found that 34% still intended to vote for Sinn Féin. Among voters under the age of 34, support was even higher at more than 43%. Despite this, Sinn Féin secured less than 12% of the popular vote in the 2024 Local and European elections.
So, why have two-thirds of Sinn Féin supporters abandoned the party since last September?
Prior to elections the apparent answer to this question seemed obvious to many – immigration. Immigration, it was claimed, had recently become a red-hot issue for many Sinn Féin supporters., and these supporters were now walking away from Sinn Féin in their droves because the party was too ‘soft’ on immigration. It was an open and shut case. Until it wasn’t.
When the ballot boxes were opened on this day two weeks ago, it quickly became clear that the opinion polls had significantly underestimated the scale of Sinn Féin’s woes.
Read the rest of this entry »How well did the left go in the June 9 European election? – by Dick Nichols, Green Left (Australia)
A recommended article :
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How well did the left go in the June 9 European Election?
How well did the left go in the June 9 European election?
Provisional results of the 2024 European Elections, as at June 19. Source: results.elections.europa.eu
At first glance it looks as if the parties to the left of the social democracy held their ground against the surge of the far right and mainstream right that marked the June 9 European Union (EU) parliamentary elections (see here for results in detail).
Although the smallest of the European parliament’s seven groups, The Left managed to maintain its EU-wide vote at 5.4% and increase its seat tally from 37 to 39 in the 720-seat assembly.
In addition, left green Members of the European Parliaments (MEPs) and those representing stateless nations (part of the Greens group as the European Free Alliance) at least maintained their numbers in the chamber.
See also
Finland: Mass workers’ strike wave continues against gov’t attacks on workers, unions, welfare
Interview: Fascism and resistance in France today
Ukrainian unionists: Oligarchs, not Europe’s poor, should pay for weapons and aid to Ukraine
Workers’ Party of Belgium gains ground in European, national elections
Yet the Greens group as a whole shrank from 71 seats to 53 while that of the liberals (known as Renew) fell from 102 to 79. This drop reflected that the environmental issues that in part drove the big advance of these parties in the 2019 election were less important for many voters this time.
The campaign was dominated by insecurity about the future, the cost of living (particularly housing), the fear of war, the “immigration threat” and intolerance of difference.
In this grim atmosphere the biggest growth went to the mainstream right European People’s Party and the two far-right groups (Identity and Democracy and Conservatives and Reformists): taken together the right and far right won an extra 30 seats, bring it to 324.
Because it would take only 37 ungrouped MEPs to join them to from a reactionary majority, the June 9 result poses with new urgency two old questions about politics in the European parliament. How much, if at all, does the real balance of political forces in the chamber differ from that among its formal groupings? And how much does membership of a group represent disciplined commitment to its positions?
Left divisions over Ukraine
The questions are sharply relevant in the case of the Left group, where differences over what stance to take towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine were already pointing towards a split before June 9.
On May 31, Li Andersson, chairperson of the Finnish Left Alliance told the Helsinki Times that these differences could not be tolerated in the group in the new legislature. Referring to Clare Daly and Mick Wallace, Irish left independent opponents of military aid to Ukraine, Andersson said: “The Nordic Green Left as a whole [covering Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Greenland and the Faroe Islands] is of the opinion that if they manage to win re-election, they can’t join our group.”
For Andersson, the same went for the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance: For Reason and Justice (BSW), a split in Germany from leading Left group member Die Linke (The Left). BSW opposes military aid to Ukraine and supports resuming the gas trade with Russia, in common with most of Europe’s far-right parties.
Read the rest of this entry »The June 2024 European and Local Elections in Ireland – What do the results tell us about Irish Politics? – Independent Left Analysis
Independent Left on Election 2024
Independent Left candidate Councillor John Lyons topped the poll in Artane-Whitehall 2024 for first preferences in the local government elections of 7 June 2024. This was a terrific result for our small party and above all is a recognition of the consistent, empathetic and determined work carried out by John for individuals and groups in the community he represents on Dublin City Council. The high vote might also be connected to the values and priorities of Independent Left and this deserves some reflection.
Before getting to that, however, what happened in the bigger picture? What do the results tell us about Irish politics in the snapshot provided by the election?
1. Fine Gael turned public concern onto the question of immigration.
It’s an old and, unfortunately, successful tactic by conservative and governing parties that to deflect from how they have facilitated the rich getting richer, they focus public anxiety on immigrants. In the run up to the election, Fine Gael, and their Fianna Fáil and Green partners in government, forced refugees into homelessness then arranged performances such as bulldozing tents to generate attention to the issue. This worked to put a spotlight on Sinn Féin’s response.
2. The Centre Held?
Ever since COVID restrictions gave fascists a focus to organise around, they’ve been growing in Ireland. By mobilising against refugee centres, they gained a following beyond a fringe. Encouraging people to be angry against immigrants plays right into the hands of these fascists. Fine Gael took a calculated risk on this: they chose to give fascism a boost rather than face the electorate on their record in government. After the election they breathed a sigh of relief and pundits everywhere said that the centre held. The reality, unfortunately, is that fascists did make significant gains. Not the gains that they themselves and their US funders hoped for, but about 5% of the electorate voted far-right in the European elections and in the local elections they got five seats, coming very close to a sixth in Artane-Whitehall.
Read the rest of this entry »“Clare Daly needs to withdraw claim that media ghosted her” – Justine McCarthy criticises ex Dublin MEP who gave ammo to the “shoot the messenger brigades”
This Justine McCarthy article is a damning critique of the “shoot the messenger” technique regularly used by the former Dublin Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Clare Daly, and the ex Ireland South MEP Mick Wallace.
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Clare Daly’s Dog-Whistle to haters of the media wasn’t just hypocritical – it was reckless
It wasn’t just the ungraciousness of Clare Daly’s departure from the election count centre after losing her European Parliament seat that left the air disturbed in her wake. It wasn’t even the falsehood in her valediction as she flounced out of the RDS, telling an RTÉ reporter who had requested a comment from her: “Ye’d no interest in talking to me for five years, so I’ve no interest in talking to ye.” What shattered the air was her dog whistle to haters of the so-called “mainstream media”. The salivating in the trenches of the dark web was almost audible.
First, the truth – Daly and her Independents 4 Change colleague Mick Wallace have a usual practice of not responding to attempts by professional journalists to contact them. They prefer to appear live on air where their words cannot be edited. I know this because they told me so when they were both still TDs. Their confession tumbled out when, innocently, I had asked if I could check their contact details as I had repeatedly failed to get any response from either of them. Since that day, I have tried in vain to contact Daly and Wallace numerous times in attempts to obtain comments for news stories, as required by professional ethics and by the Press Council’s code of conduct. Many other journalists have had the same experience.
Read the rest of this entry »New French popular front (uniting trade unions and entire significant left) – against Marine Le Pen and Putin’s fascism : ‘unconditional support for Ukraine against Putin’s aggression’.
Everyone on the left in Ireland and across the globe should warmly welcome this French initiative.
The New Popular Front in France, which unites trade unions, ATTAC, the Socialist Party, the Greens, the Communist Party, France Unbowed (Melenchon) and the NPA [NOUVEAU PARTI ANTICAPITALISTE] (the entire significant left) against the fascist National Rally, includes in it’s platform ‘unconditional support for Ukraine against Putin’s aggression’.
Links :
New French Popular Front – Wikipedia
New French Popular Front website
General Mobilisation Against the far right and Macron, the Popular Front! (NPA)
To defeat Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression, and that he answers for his crimes before international justice: unfailingly defend the sovereignty and freedom of the Ukrainian people as well as the integrity of its borders, by the delivery of necessary weapons, the cancellation of its foreign debt, the seizure of the assets of the oligarchs who contribute to the Russian war effort in the framework allowed by international law, the dispatch of peacekeepers to secure nuclear power plants, in an international context of tension and war on the European continent, and work towards the return of peace.
A June 14 poll shows Marine Le Pen’s far-right, Putin-friendly National Rally at 29.5%, the left-wing New Popular Front at 28.5%, and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renew at 18%. The winner-take-all district elections for the 577 seats in the French National Assembly will be held on June 30. Run-offs between the top two if no one wins a majority in the first round will be held on July 7.
“Sinn Féin’s disaster was the standout story of the weekend’s count” – Cedar Lounge Revolution Blog starts important discussion
Overall, the June 7 2024 Local and European elections in the 26 County bit of Ireland were good news for the ruling coalition elected in February 2020. The Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Greens plus Gombeens (FFFGGG) combination scored an important victory, setting them up for a possible return to the seat of government in Dublin’s Leinster House in less than 12 months, when a new general election must happen.
Even worse, due to ominous rising support for Gombeen currents (primarily the Independent Ireland [II]) party and extreme racists, FFFG might be able to dump the Greens and rule on their own – or coalesce with the II gombeens and other toxic racist-right populists.
Read the rest of this entry »Finnish Left Alliance Chairperson Li Andersson says Clare Daly and Mick Wallace “parrot” Putin’s propaganda against Ukraine – and should be denied membership of the Left group in the new Euro-Parliament (if elected)
Current Irish Member of the European parliament Clare Daly has lost her seat in the Dublin constituency.
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Clare Daly loses Euro-Seat, June 11 2024
Daly and Mick Wallace were part of the left group in the last parliament, but the chairperson of the Left Alliance (Finland) disagrees strongly with the Wallace-Daly Ukraine policy.
Li Andersson, Chairperson of the Finnish Left Alliance, says Daly and Wallace parroted Putin’s propaganda :
Andersson said MEPs Clare Daly and Mick Wallace from Ireland, two fierce critics of support for Ukraine, can no longer sit with The Left. Despite also parroting Russian propaganda and seeking to torpedo resolutions on Russia, and seeking to torpedo resolutions on Russia, Daly and Wallace have been allowed to continue as members of The Left.
In Finland, the Left Alliance won big in the European parliament elections :
Finland’s results in the European election bucked a continent-wide trend of rising support for parties on the outer fringe of right-wing politics, with the Left Alliance and the National Coalition winning big at the expense of the nationalist Finns Party. Leftist leader Li Andersson received more votes than any other candidate has ever received in a European election. By 8:34pm, with just 60 percent of the vote counted, she had already beaten Eurosceptic Centre Party grandee Paavo Väyrynen’s total of 157 668 votes in the 1996 election. She ended up getting nearly a quarter of a million votes. Andersson was visibly delighted after the results were announced. ”I’m still in shock. This is an incredibly fantastic result, much better than I could have ever dared to expect,” she said.
Link :
Left Alliance Record Result in Finnish Elections
In the article below Li Andersson’s robust left-wing pro-Ukraine policy is examined in detail – the Irish left should follow this excellent example.
John Meehan, June 11 2024
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Finland: ANDERSSON: The Left must clean out members who oppose support for Ukraine
CHAIRPERSON of the Left Alliance Li Andersson says The Left, one of the seven political groups in the European Parliament, should clean out members who question support for Ukraine and show sympathy for Russia.
“The groups are always reformed at the start of the term, and we want changes to the group that make it more cohesive on foreign and security policy,” she said to Helsingin Sanomat on Tuesday.
The Left Alliance is part of The Left in the European Parliament.
Helsingin Sanomat reported earlier this week that several members of the political group voted this term against resolutions concerning Ukraine, questioning the need for support – especially military support – for Ukraine. Some members have also criticised the economic sanctions slapped on Russia over its war of aggression in Ukraine.
An analysis conducted by the newspaper found that the group has divided on votes concerning Ukraine, with support coming from parties from the Nordics and opposition from parties in Central and Southern Europe.
Andersson, who herself is vying for a seat in the European Parliament, pointed out that The Left has nonetheless unanimously condemned the war of aggression prosecuted by Russia.
“I’ve stressed that there are certain things we won’t compromise on. The entire group has condemned the war unequivocally. Had that not been the case, we would’ve left the group or someone else would’ve had to leave,” she stated.
“On other issues, you can see that other parties differ from us in terms of their security policy analysis. They don’t reflect the thinking of the Left Alliance.”
How Russia and Ukraine support are viewed by other parties in the group is becoming a threshold question within the Left Alliance – one that defines what parties are capable of co-operation, according to Helsingin Sanomat.
Andersson said MEPs Clare Daly and Mick Wallace from Ireland, two fierce critics of support for Ukraine, can no longer sit with The Left. Despite also parroting Russian propaganda and seeking to torpedo resolutions on Russia, Daly and Wallace have been allowed to continue as members of The Left.
“The Nordic Green Left, [the umbrella party for left-wing parties in the Nordics], as a whole is of the opinion that if they manage to win re-election, they can’t join our group,” stated Andersson.
Sahra Wagenknecht, a German left-wing populist who has opposed military aid to Ukraine and called for the resumption of gas trade with Russia, is similarly not welcome to The Left, according to Andersson.
“We’ll represent our stance in every vote. MEPs of the Left Alliance will vote in favour of supporting Ukraine,” she pledged.
Helsingin Sanomat on Wednesday wrote that the European Parliament’s political groups have generated more discussion than previously in the run-up to the elections, a reflection of the groups’ growing importance in decision-making.
Johanna Kantola, a professor of political science at the University of Helsinki, said to the newspaper that the groups have marked differences: while the largest groups in the parliament – the centre-right EPP, the social democratic S&D and liberal Renew Europe – have highlighted their European and supranational nature, some of it has been lip service.
National interests are visible in votes and the groups exercise no group discipline, she said.
The Greens and European Free Alliance is a genuinely supranational group with a shared set of values, according to Kantola.
Finnish parties in the European Parliament have been aligned as follows: the Christian Democrats, Movement Now and National Coalition have been part of the EPP, the Finns Party of the ECR, the Social Democrats of S&D, the Centre and Swedish People’s Party of Renew Europe, the Left Alliance of The Left, and the Green League of the Greens and EFA.
Riikka Purra, the chairperson of the Finns Party, stated in mid-May that the Finns Party would stay in the ECR even if the group was joined by Fidesz, the party led by authoritarian Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“We don’t have another group to go to, and you can’t be without a group. That’s when you need other structures that make it possible to co-exist,” she was quoted saying in Brussels on 14 May by Helsingin Sanomat.
Readers are urged to support this initiative :
We invite you – organisations and individuals – to sign the declaration “Ukraine: A People’s Peace, not an Imperial Peace”. Please find the declaration and our accompanying letter below. Different language versions are provided.
Link :
A People’s Peace, Not an Imperial Peace
Any sympathy vanishes :
“Sitting MEP Clare Daily has lost her European Parliament seat in the Dublin constituency.
She was excluded on the 17th count and becomes the first outgoing MEP to lose her seat in the election.
Asked how she felt following the loss, she told RTÉ News: “You had no interest in talking to me for five years, so I’ve no interest in talking to you.”
Ms Daly hugged Independent Ireland candidate Niall Boylan before swiftly leaving the count centre at the RDS.”
Link : https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2024/2024/0611/1454089-european-election-roundup/
The best that can be said about Niall Boylan is that he is a mini-Trump who should be shunned, like the mini-Hitler political trash which transferred heavily to him in the Dublin Euro-parliament election contest.
Ireland : Government and opposition ‘giving in to far-right playbook’ – Hope and Courage Collective Speaks Out
Government and opposition politicians are “giving in to the far-right playbook”, while anti-immigration demonstrations have become more aggressive since the Dublin riots, according to the director of the Hope and Courage Collective.
The Hope and Courage Collective, previously the Far Right Observatory, is a national civil society organisation “that works with community groups, advocacy groups, trade unions, activists and academics to stop hate organising in our communities and workplaces”.
The group works to “support communities and civil society to stay grounded, caring and resilient in the face of far-right hate, bigotry and extremism”.
Speaking at a recent Joint Policing Committee, Garda Assistant Commissioner Angela Willis said there has been a fall in anti-immigrant protests in Dublin. However, she noted the level of aggression at demonstrations has increased.
Director of Advocacy and Community Engagement at the Hope and Courage Collective Niamh McDonald told BreakingNews.ie that the group has noticed this trend, adding that anti-immigration demonstrations have become more organised.
Changed Racist Tactics – Blockades Outside Buildings Housing Immigrants
“We have noticed a change since the Dublin riots. It’s a change in the dynamics of the activity around these protests. We would concur that there is a drop in the numbers of people coming out, but the tactics have changed. We see the likes of blockades or encampments outside centres that have been copied across the country since January.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tomás Ó Flatharta 