Tomás Ó Flatharta

Looking at Things from the Left

Would a Sinn Féin Win at the Next Dublin Dáil General Election Guarantee the Formation of a Left Government?

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Some people are sure a Sinn Féin victory at the next Dáil general election – which must happen by February 2025 – will mean a shift to the left. A perspective is offered : a Left Government. There is no doubt that a left government is very badly needed, and that is the positive policy of People Before Profit.

Election of a left government is not guaranteed – especially if Sinn Féin enters a coalition with right-wing forces such as Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, or the assorted Gombeen-poltroon deputies such as the Healy-Rae’s of Kerry, Michael Lowry of Tipperary, or Verona Murphy of Wexford.

Sinn Féin is keeping its options open – that is clearly shown in the attached newspaper article from five years ago.

David Cullinane TD, Sinn Féin, Waterford rules in a coalition government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

Bringing hard information up to date : a series of opinion polls suggests Sinn Féin would be the largest Dáil party if a general election is held tomorrow. This picture is very likely to be an accurate prediction of the next overall general election result, but that’s all : things could change between now and February 2025. The most accurate and reliable survey which I have read is here :

It suggests that SF will be the biggest party, but Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would have the numbers to form a new government, without the Green Party, which looks to be electorally dead in the water.

Here are the numbers : FFFG to obtain 76 seats, ahead of Sinn Féin on 64. Most of the 10 independents are Gombeen-Poltroons, ideal right-wing coalition partners for FFFG.

Sinn Féin 64
Fianna Fáil 39
Fine Gael 37
Independents 10
Social Democrats 3
PBP/Solidarity 3
Labour 3
Green Party 1
Aontú 0
R2C 0

John Meehan August 1 2022

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