Tomás Ó Flatharta

Looking at Things from the Left

The Brexit Disaster – Have British Voters Rejected It?

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Traffic jams at the English port of Dover are telling us why many voters who ticked the Yes to Brexit box in the 2016 British State Referendum have changed their minds. Anti-Brexit critics, such as the brilliant left-wing comedian Mark Steel, are taking full advantage. So, why are so few British left wing organisations failing to queue up on the winning anti-Brexit side? There is one notable exception :

It is starting to look like a no-brainer. The latest reliable data indicate that a new Brexit referendum in the British state would produce a 55 to 45 per cent rejection of a right wing exit from the European Union.

The expert British psephologist John Curtice is more cautious, but this quotation tells us, very clearly, how the wind is blowing :

With all the caveats to this exercise it is, perhaps, important to note that much the same trend over time is also discernible from the question that YouGov have asked on a more or less regular basis ever since the June 2016 referendum – ‘In hindsight do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?’ – a question whose wording has not had to be changed in the wake of the implementation of Brexit. In the spring of 2020, the proportions saying ‘right’ (on average, 43%) and ‘wrong’ (45%) were very close to each other, but then in the second half of the year, those saying ‘wrong’ (48%) clearly outnumbered those who said ‘right’ (40%). However, the gap then narrowed again within weeks of the conclusion of the trade agreement (on average, 43% right, 45% wrong), only to have widened again in the second half of this year (41% right, 47% wrong). In short, it seems unlikely that the ups and downs in our chart above are simply the product of shifts in question wording.

The spiritual Brexit children of Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, are in denial – watch out Scotland – watch out Ireland.

John Meehan July 26 2022

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