Irish General Election to 34th Dáil; Racist Danger
The June 2024 Euro/ Local results in Ireland produced some alarming results – the racist far-right came from the margins and increased its electoral support. This could be a predictor of the coming General Election result.
Warning signs to anti-racists exist in various opinion surveys. See, for example, these numbers from a recent RedC General Election Opinion Survey) :
Aontú, a right-wing split from Sinn Féin set up by an anti-choice TD from Meath, Peadar Tóibín, is beginning to hoover up right-wing racist votes which were scattered among various mini-Hitlers in the June 2024 European and Local Elections. We can say the same for the Irish Independence party (II). When we note that a majority of independent candidates are part of the racist far-right, a disturbing picture emerges. The numbers are worse in other parts of the Irish state.
Here is the data from an Irish Times Opinion Poll :
Irish General Election November 29 2024 Irish Times Survey Results 15/11/24
First preference voting intentions
Dublin
Rest of Leinster
Munster
Connacht/Ulster
Fianna Fáil
16.00%
19.00%
27.00%
13.00%
Fine Gael
22.00%
29.00%
22.00%
29.00%
Labour
9.00%
3.00%
2.00%
3.00%
Green Party
6.00%
2.00%
1.00%
2.00%
Sinn Fein
21.00%
16.00%
19.00%
21.00%
People Before Profit/Solidarity
4.00%
1.00%
2.00%
1.00%
Social Democrats
5.00%
5.00%
2.00%
2.00%
Aontú
2.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
Independent candidate
15.00%
21.00%
21.00%
25.00%
Temptation exists : bending to “understandable” fears. For example an election canvasser from a party with one foot in the left put it to me that some voters are “uncomfortable” because their neighbours come from outside Ireland.
Let’s be clear, harsh, and unambiguous : messages like this pander to the racist view that immigrants are criminals and rapists. There is no evidence backing up claims that people born outside Ireland are any worse than Irish natives. It gives oxygen to the far right shite being whispered around communities.
Simon Harris confirmed that he’ll travel to Áras an Uachtaráin shortly to ask President Higgins to dissolve the Dáil.
The election is set for Friday 29 November 2024.
A number of radical left candidates against any coalition deal with FFFFGGG have a realistic chance of winning a Dáil seat. [FFFGGG = Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Greens, Gombeens].
One of them is Councillor John Lyons in Dublin Bay North.
Councillor John Lyons (Second left) supports Irish Left With Ukraine (Seen Here Picketing the Dublin Russian Embassy of Vladimir Putin
Rejecting any coalition deals with FFFGGG and a policy that All refugees Are Welcome should be top priorities for radical left candidates in this general election.
People Before Profit (PBP) candidates also endorse the above policy.
BORIS KAGARLITSKY INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY CAMPAIGN
On February 13, 2024, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation sentenced prominent Russian socialist, anti-war activist and author Boris Kagarlitsky to five years jail for ‘justifying terrorism’.
This campaign exists to win his freedom and that of all other antiwar prisoners in Russia.
The Nouveau Front populaire (New Popular Front), a coalition built in just a few days by the left-wing parties (whereas they remained splintered at the recent European parliamentary elections), has just won 182 deputy seats in the French National Assembly, beating the Rassemblement national (RN) and its allies, with 143 seats, and the camp of President Macron with 168 seats.
This is a spectacular reversal of the situation meaning we have gone from the threat of a far-right stranglehold on the state apparatus to a relative left-wing majority in the Assembly, elected on a programme of rupture with neoliberal policies. This reversal cannot be understood without looking at the massive mobilisation in recent weeks of the activist forces of the workers’ and democratic movement in the face of the far right, leading first to the formation of this New Popular Front (with la France insoumise (LFI), Europe Ecologie Les Verts (EELV), the Socialist Party (PS), the Communist Party (PCF) and others including the Nouveau parti anticapitaliste (NPA)), then to a major mobilisation at the ballot box and a very broadly supported vote to reject the RN.
Following on from its 31.34% result in the European elections on 9 June, the RN obtained more than 33% of the vote in the first round of legislative elections on 30 June, and everything suggested that it would obtain a very large number of deputies in the second round, with all the polls giving it well over 200 deputies and possibly even an absolute majority of 289 seats.
The main lesson of the first results of this second round is the setback suffered by the Rassemblement national and its allies. The defeat of the hundreds of fascist, racist, Islamophobic, antisemitic and ultra-racist candidates put forward by the RN is a huge relief for racialized people, women, LGBTI+ people and workers. This victory for the united left has halted the momentum of the far right, which nonetheless won around fifty more seats. This defeat of the far right of Bardella and Le Pen is the fruit of the popular mobilization that took place thanks to the unitive impetus provided by the creation of the New Popular Front.
This is already a victory for the New Popular Front, which was made possible by the rallying of the entire left – political parties, trade unions and campaigning groups – , but also and above all by the grassroots mobilization of large sectors of the working classes, in particular racialized people and young people, who committed themselves everywhere to blocking the RN. This made it possible for a very large number of New Popular Front MPs (including a relative majority for LFI) to be elected to the National Assembly on the basis of a programme that breaks not only with Macronism in the service of the ultra-rich, but also with the liberal left of the Hollande mandate, which had followed the policies of the right.
Paul Murphy’s opinion piece in the July 4 2024 edition of the Irish Times makes a strong case :
“Another five years of FF/FG rule would be disastrous for the country. Left parties and Independents must come together to stop it happening”
There is a bottom line :
No coalition with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael.
The Irish Left must unite to break the old stranglehold, Paul Murphy TD (People Before Profit, Dublin South-West), Irish Times, July 4 2024
Time for a new united left alliance to topple Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael
Another five years of FF/FG rule would be disastrous for the country. Left parties and Independents must come together and stop this happening
A general election is looming. If the local election results are repeated, it will mean a return of this Government but with the Greens replaced as the third wheel by right-wing Independents. The 100-year rule of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will continue.
This would be a disaster.
Another five years of their rule would mean a deepening of the crises in housing and health, with more children growing up in emergency accommodation, more adults trapped in their childhood bedroom unable to move out, as well as growing hospital waiting lists. It would mean continued inaction on the climate and biodiversity crises and large numbers of workers in low-paid, precarious employment without the right to collectively bargain.
One of the biggest donors to Nigel Farage’s anti-net zero Reform UK during the general election campaign has significant Russian business interests, DeSmog can report.
Natural resources investor David Lilley donated £100,000 to Reform on 10 June – a week after Farage announced that he was returning as the party’s leader. Lilley’s donation was the third largest to Reform during the campaign so far.
As revealed by The Mirror and Good Law Project in the former’s print edition, Lilley controls a series of companies that own 12,000 hectares of farmland in the Stavropol region of Russia, in the south west of the country, used to produce cereals and oilseeds.
Lilley confirmed to DeSmog that he still owns this land, saying that “I have never made a secret of my assets in Russia.” He said that he had made no profit on these assets since February 2022 and that he had been prevented from selling them by the Russian state.
Farage has come under fire in recent days for suggesting that Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was provoked by the west, and for calling on Ukraine to enter peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Good Law Project executive director Jolyon Maugham told DeSmog that Reform is “starting to feel a bit like Russia’s unofficial British Embassy.”
Abstention lowest since 1997 at 32.5% (cf 53% in 2022)
Macron’s big gamble has failed. By calling a snap election, he thought the French people would rally around his centrist party and the moderate left to put Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) back in its box after its victory in the recent Euro elections. He assumed a bigger turnout would not favour Le Pen’s extreme right-wing, post-fascist party. On the contrary, 20% more people turned out than in 2022. The RN consolidated its Euro vote and successfully allied with a split from the mainstream Les Républicains (LR, the Republicans). In terms of actual votes – around 12 million if you add in the votes of the Zemmour current who got less than 1% – this is a massive breakthrough. Previous scores in legislative elections were less than half this.
“Macron’s gamble has backfired spectacularly, with the Rassemblement National consolidating its Euro vote and securing an unprecedented number of MPs in the first round.”
The RN has never had so many MPs elected in the first round. They were already the biggest single party in the National Assembly, and it is probable now that they will maintain that position with even more MPs. However, it is still uncertain whether they will get the 289 MPs needed for an absolute majority, which would guarantee them the premiership with their young leader Bardella.
Everything depends on what happens in the second-round run-off. The top two stand automatically, but the third candidate can run in the second round if they have more than 12.5% of the registered voters. All the discussion immediately following the election focuses on whether the best-placed candidate to defeat the RN is given a free run by any eligible third-place candidates stepping down. Leaders of the Nouveau Front Populaire (the New Popular Front-NPF) from the Socialist Party, the Ecologists, and La France Insoumise (France Unbowed – LFI) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have all called for this ‘barrage’ (bloc) to stop the RN winning.
En cas de triangulaire, si le Rassemblement national est en tête et que nous sommes troisième, nous retirerons nos candidatures.
However, leaders of Macron’s Ensemble (Together) party have been much more equivocal. Some have called for blocking the RN with a single candidate, while others have said they will judge on a case-by-case basis. Bruno Le Maire, current economics minister, and Edouard Philippe, former Macronist prime minister, hold this position, saying they will vote for the social democratic left but not for the LFI. They refuse to support second-placed candidates from the LFI, whom they consider as extreme as the RN. These people do not like the way the LFI have supported the Palestinians and condemned the Israeli state or criticised police actions in ethnic minority neighbourhoods. This vacillating position could help the RN squeeze past both the Left and the Macron parties in a three-way race in some areas.
Dublin City Councillor John Lyons (Artane-Whitehall) and supporters
Independent Left candidate Councillor John Lyons topped the poll in Artane-Whitehall 2024 for first preferences in the local government elections of 7 June 2024. This was a terrific result for our small party and above all is a recognition of the consistent, empathetic and determined work carried out by John for individuals and groups in the community he represents on Dublin City Council. The high vote might also be connected to the values and priorities of Independent Left and this deserves some reflection.
Before getting to that, however, what happened in the bigger picture? What do the results tell us about Irish politics in the snapshot provided by the election?
1. Fine Gael turned public concern onto the question of immigration.
It’s an old and, unfortunately, successful tactic by conservative and governing parties that to deflect from how they have facilitated the rich getting richer, they focus public anxiety on immigrants. In the run up to the election, Fine Gael, and their Fianna Fáil and Green partners in government, forced refugees into homelessness then arranged performances such as bulldozing tents to generate attention to the issue. This worked to put a spotlight on Sinn Féin’s response.
2. The Centre Held?
Ever since COVID restrictions gave fascists a focus to organise around, they’ve been growing in Ireland. By mobilising against refugee centres, they gained a following beyond a fringe. Encouraging people to be angry against immigrants plays right into the hands of these fascists. Fine Gael took a calculated risk on this: they chose to give fascism a boost rather than face the electorate on their record in government. After the election they breathed a sigh of relief and pundits everywhere said that the centre held. The reality, unfortunately, is that fascists did make significant gains. Not the gains that they themselves and their US funders hoped for, but about 5% of the electorate voted far-right in the European elections and in the local elections they got five seats, coming very close to a sixth in Artane-Whitehall.
With the final tallies counted and remaining seats filled, People Before Profits (PBP) Dublin South West and RISE members Diarmuid Flood and Paul Murphy review the deeply polarised Local and European Elections and outline five key takeaways.
For the second election in a row, dramatic political changes took place in the course of the local and European elections. Sinn Féin started the year polling around 30% and yet ended up with less than 12% nationally in the local Elections. Independents and Others started the year with around 15%, but won close to 25% on June 6th. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both hit 23%, coming from the high teens and around 20% respectively. In many ways, these appear to be the opposite political trends to what we saw in the General Election of 2020. Back then, Sinn Féin grew dramatically as hope for an end to 100 years of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael rule propelled them to be the biggest party in vote share for the first time ever. Volatility is clearly in the air.
However, what we saw in the five weeks of the election campaign did not come from nowhere. The election catalysed and accelerated existing processes. In the absence of major progressive social struggles, with the exception of the Palestine solidarity movement, the political terrain has undoubtedly shifted rightwards. Ireland has caught up with most of the rest of Europe and the Global North, with the emergence of a reactionary social movement in opposition to asylum seekers and the growth of a racist, climate denialist, anti-LGBTQ, and sexist far-right.
Tomás Ó Flatharta 