Sometimes, a campaign alters the balance of forces in a significant manner. We can compare this fresh statistical evidence from Scotland with the real result which will appear in the early hours of Friday July 5 2024. Has British Unionist Sir Keir Starmer snatched defeat from victory in Scotland?

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How John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s battered reputation – John Curtice

Sir John Curtice on how John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s ‘battered reputation’

By Sir John Curtice

Published 3rd Jul 2024,

Sir John Curtice delivers his assessment of the latest poll results from Savanta, for The Scotsman

Labour look set to make significant gains north of the border. And the SNP are at risk of falling short of their target of winning at least half of Scotland’s seats at Westminster.

However, the battle between them now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Mr Sunak called the election six weeks ago.

At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.