Posts Tagged ‘British General Election July 4 2024’
Elon Musk, Nigel Farage, and the Gruesome Twosome of the British Tory Party
On the western and eastern sides of the Atlantic Ocean a ferocious viper war has erupted.
US President-elect Donald Trump’s favourite attack-dog Elon Musk is trying to remote-control British politics.
Reform leader Nigel Farage’s typically British stiff upper-lip response is described below : it is like the Fawlty Towers episode when Basil Fawlty failed to produce a Waldorf Salad for a tyrannical American diner who had paid the bungling guest-house owner a generous bribe :
Before long Trump will dispose of Musk, just as Russian strongman Putin bumped off Mr Prigozhin.
Musk might, at some point, jangle some of his loose change in the direction of far-right Irish political operators. The nearest Irish equivalent to Musk’s suggested Nigel Farage – Tommy Robinson marriage is a direct link between the beggar-gombeens of the Dublin Dáil and the convicted kick boxer/rapist Conor McGregor. The Independent Ireland (II) party had to dump a McGregor associate, Phil Sutcliffe, from its candidate list after Nikita Hand won a court victory over the kick-boxing rapist.
Read the rest of this entry »British General Election 2024 – Highlights and Lowlights – Loveless Landslide, Sandcastle Majority. Far-Right Hiding in Plain Sight, House of Paisley Falls in Antrim – and a Message of Hope from new MP Shockat Adam, Leicester South
Let’s start with positive news :
Shockat Adam MP, Leicester South – “This is for the people of Gaza”.
When you listen to this June 25 car-crash interview with former Leicester South Labour MP Jonathan Ashworth, you would be forgiven for thinking he was a member of the far-right racist party, Reform.
Shockat Adam was not alone. Five pro-Gaza independent candidates (including former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North) are members of the new Westminster parliament :
Read the rest of this entry »British General Election 2024, GE2024 : The Scottish National party may be gaining ground on Starmer’s Unionist Labour Outfit – Election Expert John Curtice Crunches new numbers
Sometimes, a campaign alters the balance of forces in a significant manner. We can compare this fresh statistical evidence from Scotland with the real result which will appear in the early hours of Friday July 5 2024. Has British Unionist Sir Keir Starmer snatched defeat from victory in Scotland?
Link :
How John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s battered reputation – John Curtice
Sir John Curtice on how John Swinney has helped repair SNP’s ‘battered reputation’
Sir John Curtice delivers his assessment of the latest poll results from Savanta, for The Scotsman
Labour look set to make significant gains north of the border. And the SNP are at risk of falling short of their target of winning at least half of Scotland’s seats at Westminster.
However, the battle between them now looks as though it could be significantly closer than Labour had hoped and the SNP feared when Mr Sunak called the election six weeks ago.
At that point Savanta reckoned that Labour were on 37 per cent, four points ahead of the SNP. Their lead was even slightly bigger, five points, in the middle of June. Yet in today’s poll support for Labour is, at 31 per cent, six points down on the beginning of the campaign, and seven points short of the middle of June.
Read the rest of this entry »GE2024 Forecast: Final Predictions and Analysis; British General Election
Ell’s final calls for GE2024.
My final forecast for #GE2024
In the early hours of July 5 2024 we will know if this Stats for Lefties forecast is accurate. It covers Wales, Scotland, and England.
Comparing the real result with the forecast will be interesting.
Six County Statelet (Northern Ireland) predictions are here :
Six County Seat Predictions, Electoral Calculus
Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.
Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?
Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction
John Meehan June 27 2024
Tomás Ó Flatharta 