Tomás Ó Flatharta

Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.

MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.

All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.

Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North

This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.

Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party

The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction

None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction

A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.

Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?

Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction

John Meehan June 27 2024