Tomás Ó Flatharta

Early tallies from local government counts, which usually offer numbers which are close to the real results, prompt these observations :

RTÉ News Report :

A round-up of the polling in the four Dublin local authorities, according to Fine Gael tallies:

FG tally of 4 Dublin local authorities suggests
FG 73,578 – 19pc (+1pc on 2019)
FF 54,738- 14pc (-4pc on 2019)
SF 42,581 – 11pc (+1pc on 2019)
Lab 37,288 – 10pc (-1pc on 2019)
Greens 29,086 – 8pc (-7 on 2019)
Others (Ind , PBP-Sol, Soc Dems, Aontu): 146,597 – 38pc (+1 on 2019)— Mícheál Lehane (@MichealLehane) June 8, 2024

If these numbers are right, and also occur in the Dublin Euro-constituency, these scenarios are on the cards :

1. FF and FG to win 2 of the 4 Euro seats.
2. Sinn Féin (Lynn Boylan) has a good chance to win a seat, but running two candidates may have been a disastrous mistake.
3. The Labour Party (Aodhán Ó Ríordáin TD) is likely to win a seat.
4. Transfers of candidates whose voters are on the left : Cuffe, Gibney, Daly, Smith, Ogle and Doolan will play a big role in who gets the last two seats. One of Cuffe, Gibney, Daly or Smith could get ahead of Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan and take the last seat.
5. The far-right candidate Níall Boylan (Independent Ireland Party, IIP) may be in contention, but is likely to drop back because of a significant number of hostile left wing transfers. A large number of mini-fuhrer extreme-right candidates are likely to clutter the bottom of the poll and face early elimination; their transfers will favour Níall Boylan, but probably will not be enough to get the IIP racist elected.
6. It would be useful to get a breakdown of the “others” percentage above.

First count Euro election results will only be announced after 10pm on Sunday night, June 9, and may not be declared until Monday.