Tomás Ó Flatharta

The result of the November 29 General Election in Ireland was a victory for the outgoing government. The two leading conservative parties – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (FFFG) won 86 out of 174 seats, only two seats short of an overall majority. Their previous administration needed a mudguard, provided by the Green party (GP), which lost 11 of its 12 seats.

This time the mudguard is likely to come from right-wing gombeens (The Irish mainstream media calls them “gene-pool independents” as most come from FFFG). In the previous Dáil “independent” deputies from this swamp regularly voted confidence in the government, without formally participating in the cabinet. Since the election result was announced, these gombeens have brazenly begged for perks and freebies in exchange for their Dáil votes.

Green or Moderate Left Mudguard Unavailable?

FFFG is in the market for a Green or moderate-left mudguard. Possible partners – (the Labour party [LP] and the Social Democrats [SDs]) – seem unwilling to perform political suicide.

In the words of one source :

I get the feeling the GP example is terrifying them!

FFFG shoppers in the mudguard supermarket may be seeking unavailable bargains :

Labour sources expect that the party will today rule out continuing discussions about entering government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, effectively shutting down that coalition option for the two larger parties.

The party’s TDs will meet at Leinster House at lunchtime where leader Ivana Bacik is expected to propose the move, which is likely to be backed overwhelmingly by those present.

Labour sources were careful not to get ahead of today’s decision, but there is little expectation in the party that its engagement on government will continue. This will draw a distinction with the Social Democrats, who yesterday said they would continue discussions.

But after meetings with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil this week, there is similarly little expectation in the outgoing government that the Social Democrats are serious about entering coalition.

Source : Jack Horgan-Jones, Election 2024: Labour set ‘to exit coalition talks’ with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, Irish Times December 13 2024

On Friday December 13 expectation cruised a little bit closer to certainty, but the Titanic option has not been ruled out :

NEW: Labour leader Ivana Bacik has said that it is “unlikely” that her party will go into Government, as they prepare for one final round of meetings with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael

https://twitter.com/TadghMcN/status/1867600549979304410

We await the final whistle.

Once the post-election dust settles we may see a government composed of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Beggar-Gombeens (BGs) (FFFGBG) on one side, and a parliamentary opposition operating within a left-wing and ecological spectrum.

A FFFGBG coalition would be composed of Team FFFG (86 TDs) plus enough BG deputies to guarantee a workable Dáil majority.

Some BGs will oppose the government from the right.

The opposition spectrum on the left

The Dáil opposition benches will be staffed mainly by deputies who position themselves on the left. What kind of left? What unites the different streams of the left, what divides them?

Sinn Féin (SF) (39 seats) could be joined on the opposition benches by the LP and the SDs which won a total of 21 seats in the General Election. Solidarity-People Before Profit (SPBP) (3 seats) and 4 independents who are on the left (Catherine Connolly, Séamus Healy, Brian Stanley and Charles Ward) have formed a technical group of 7 to guarantee their speaking rights. Another likely member of this parliamentary opposition is the sole GP survivor, party leader Roderic O’Gorman, an outgoing cabinet minister.

The only reason SF is not engaged in coalition talks with FFFG is this: the FFFG frenemies have consistently rejected earnest marriage offers from the SF leader, Mary Lou McDonald.

Many days after the election result was clear, the SF leader continued knocking on the closed door; here is one of many examples :

“Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald says it would be “bad practice” for Fianna Fáil to exclude Sinn Féin from potential government formation” BBC News Report

The party also signalled to its left flank. Two days before the voters went to the polling stations the Irish Times reported “Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has indicated Sinn Féin voters should consider transferring to parties such as the Social Democrats and People Before Profit”.

The key points here are that a) SF voters were going to do that anyway b) SF’s calls for coalition with FFFG were looking increasingly ridiculous c) SF leaders were worried that left-wing voters were repelled by Sinn Féin’s racist dog-whistling, and other right-wing policy shifts.

This was not a good election for the (hard) left – but the(soft) left made a comeback. Now everything depends on whether the soft left enters a coalition with FFFG. If Labour and Social Democrats decide against the suicide/Titanic option, the left as a whole is in a much better position. The new reactionary government will be weaker.

The tricky bit for all parts of the left is to decisively break away from an ‘any opposition is OK’ approach – Sinn Féin and failed candidates positioned on the left such as the former MEP’s Clare Daly and Mick Wallace are an example of this phenomenon, especially on the burning issue of racism.

Soiled Mudguards in the Beggar-Gombeen Corner-Shop

FFFG have the numbers to form a new government. Trouble lies ahead.

Soiled Mudguard Number 1 : Verona Murphy TD

Verona Murphy TD (Wexford), a member of the BG Regional Independents’ Group (RIG), seeks a mega-freebie in the new Dáil – the position of Ceann Comhairle (chairperson of the parliament). The holder of the job gets a cabinet minister’s salary, and is given a Dáil seat without a contest at the following general election. Ms Murphy first came to political prominence in 2019 after becoming a Fine Gael candidate in a Wexford by-election. Her party had to take disciplinary action after

Murphy said Islamic State was a big part of the immigrant population, that children as young as three or four may have been manipulated by the terror group and that some asylum seekers might need to be “reprogrammed”. (Irish Times November 23 2019)

Other parties pounced, for example :

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin (said) that Murphy was “playing the race card”.

Leo Varadkar, at that time leader of Fine Gael and the taoiseach. said the selection of Murphy was “a mistake” and said he was glad Murphy was not elected in the by-election. The candidate had caused Fine Gael “reputational damage”.

This Journal.ie story lists a large number of complaints sent to the Department of the Taoiseach about Murphy’s racist by-election campaign :

Many examples are here :

One voter stated that remarks such as Murphy’s were opinions are “dangerously gaining some populist traction in Ireland”.

Another email to the Taoiseach said:

I am a floating voter and I have voted for Fine Gael in the past but never Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin.

However, if Verona Murphy stays on as a Fine Gael candidate I will certainly not be voting Fine Gael in the next election. 

The emailer added:

“I work hard in my community to build bridges to welcome people, to have fun and laughter. Remarks such as the ones that Verona Murphy is reported to have made have no place at all in the society that I am trying to build.

As someone who straddles a number of marginal groups I expect more from you.

Another item of correspondence sent to Varadkar said Murphy’s comments about asylum seekers were “very disturbing”.

In these days of populist statements by Fine Gael, [it] must not be seen to have in its ranks a person who appears to appeal to people’s fears by encouraging racial discrimination.

The person goes on to state:

“This is far more serious  situation than that of Maria Bailey 

I sincerely hope that I can count of [sic] Fine Gael taking immediate and appropriate action.

Another letter to Varadkar states that Murphy’s comments are appealing to the “ever-growing far-right”.

“I do not think anyone can defend Ms Murphy in her a la carte concern for asylum seekers which ultimately paints asylum seekers as indoctrinated members of ISIS.

Even giving Ms Murphy the benefit of the doubt, which I personally do not but you and other [sic] may, the carelessness and naive, bordering on out of touch nature of her comments made over the weekend prove she is not fit to hold office as TD as she is not aware of the realities facing asylum seekers coming to Ireland many of whom are fleeing attacks.

They state that “in light of your discontent for Senator Lorraine Clifford Lee and Noel Grealish’s equally reprehensible comments which have featured in the news recently I ask you request Ms Murphy’s withdrawal from the by-election as soon as possible.” 

I would ask you as leader of Fine Gael to call for Verona Murphy’s withdrawal from the by-election as soon as possible. 

Should you decide to remain with Verona Murphy’s campaign on her behalf I will not be voting for Fine Gael under your leadership in any future elections.

Link :
Letters of Complaint to Leo Varadkar about Verona Murphy’s racism

Murphy has not changed since 2019. A Journal.ie report notes she “is currently opposing the development of an accommodation centre for international protection applicants in Rosslare.” (June 15 2024). 

Mainstream media reports on Murphy’s plans to be the new Ceann Comhairle have been very quiet about Murphy’s extreme racist views. We know many TD’s in the FFFG bloc are less than impressed with the Wexford deputy’s Ceann Comhairle campaign. Dáil deputies elect the Ceann Comhairle in a secret ballot – the FFFG leaders know they cannot deliver a deal benefitting this beggar-gombeen.

Soiled Mudguard Number 2 : Michael Lowry TD (Tipperary North)

Lowry is the convenor of the RIG, the head BG. He says that if Verona Murphy’s bid to become the new Ceann Comhairle fails, it will not be a “deal-breaker”.

A former Fine Gael Minister, Lowry was forced to resign in 1996.

The State’s Moriarty Tribunal investigated the finances of Lowry, former Fianna Fáil leader Charles Haughey, and many other establishment politicians.

The Moriarty Tribunal, officially called the Tribunal of Inquiry into certain Payments to Politicians and Related Matters, was an Irish Tribunal of Inquiry established in 1997 into the financial affairs of politicians Charles Haughey and Michael Lowry. It has revealed significant tax evasion by these and other politicians and leading businessmen. As a consequence, the tax authorities have recovered millions of euro in settlements and penalties from many individuals

Michael Lowry’s financial connections to Denis O’Brien (a wealthy businessman) who secured a pot of gold (a licence to set up a mobile phone network in Ireland) were thoroughly investigated. Here are the 2011 Moriarty Tribunal Conclusions :

Conclusions

• Lowry “secured the winning” of the 1995 mobile licence for O’Brien.
• O’Brien made two payments to Lowry in 1996 and 1999 totalling IR£500,000 (£147,000 and £300,000) and supported a loan of £420,000 given to Lowry in 1999, a benefit equivalent to a payment.
• Lowry imparted substantive information to O’Brien which was “of significant value and assistance to him in securing the licence”.
• Lowry bypassed consideration by his Cabinet colleagues and thereby not only influenced, but delivered the result for Esat Digifone.
• A US$50,000 donation to Fine Gael was made through Telenor on behalf of Esat Digifone.
• Lowry sought to influence a hike in the lease for Marlborough House (Telecom Éireann headquarters) following a request from Mr Dunne. These rent increases would have improperly enriched Dunne, and were deemed to be “profoundly corrupt”.
• Lowry was criticised for his “cynical and venal abuse of office” and his brazen refusal to acknowledge the impropriety of his financial arrangements with O’Brien and Dunne.

Link
Moriarty Tribunal – Conclusions, Michael Lowry TD

Most Irish mainstream media commentary has ignored these facts. One positive exception is Justine McCarthy

The tribunal’s findings still stand, contrary to Lowry’s prediction during the 2011 Dáil debate that “in the fullness of time [the tribunal’s] contribution will be exposed for what is – a scandal of truly epic proportions”. Though he denies them he has never sought to have them overturned in court.
Even before the tribunal was established in December 1997 he misled the Dáil by disingenuously creating an impression that he did not have an offshore bank account whereas in fact he had four of them. In addition to the report’s nauseating contents about the phone licence it revealed how Lowry had tried to double the rent at the public’s expense for a State body’s tenancy in a building owned by Ben Dunne, the supermarket boss who had paid for his house extension in Tipperary.

Justine McCarthy, If 14 years’ tribunal work by a High Court judge can be so readily air-brushed by successive governments what’s the point of bothering?, Irish Times December 13 2024

The 2024 Irish General Election is over and the bad guys won.

In 2025 these bad guys will play the race card. They will target immigrants, including Ukrainians, who fled from their home country because of a barbaric Russian invasion. We are going to see a Trump-Putin “peace plan” : That deal would be achieved through the partition of Ukraine, with continued occupation of areas annexed since 2014. It would be a “peace” imposed through Western acquiescence in the dismembering of Ukraine, with clear parallels to the 1938 Munich Agreement. And the racists, inspired by Trump-Putin, will say the Ukrainians in Ireland should return to their “safe” home.

How will the fighting left in Ireland and the rest of the globe react?

John Meehan December 15 2024