Irish General Election November 29 2024 – Return of a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael Coalition – Setback for the Left
It is certain the two right-wing parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael (FFFG) which controlled the outgoing right-wing coalition will form the new government – their previous mudguard, the Green party, was destroyed – coming back with one seat, and losing 11. FFFG can pick new partners. They won 86 seats out of 174 seats, only two seats short of a majority.
We start with important data on the rise of racism in Ireland. Extreme racist candidates polled badly in this general election. Despite the emergence of violent racist organisations in the last 18 months – the majority of Irish citizens remain hostile to this dangerous political cancer.
These are good summaries of the overall result :
Brittle Opposition
Sinn Féin’s governmental ambitions fizzled out. The polling attrition suffered by Sinn Féin during the middle part of the year strongly influenced the nature of the campaign. With no real sense that the government parties might be ejected from power, the election was a low-energy affair, with turnout dropping below 60% for the first time in the history of the state.
Link :
Brittle Opposition, Dan Finn
Analysis: In a year when ruling parties around the world lost elections, Ireland’s outgoing coalition parties bucked that trend
At the end of a year that saw parties around the world punished by voters, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have managed to avoid the incumbents’ curse. The coalition partners’ combined first preference votes fell by just 0.4 points – to 42.7% – compared with the 2020 general election. This is a remarkable result, given the high cost of living and continuing housing crisis – all the more so for Fine Gael, which has been in government since 2011.
Sinn Féin’s popularity was the story of the 2020 general election. It emerged as the first choice of nearly a quarter of the electorate (24.5%) but failed to nominate enough candidates to capitalise on this and ended up with fewer seats than Fianna Fáil.
Biding its time in opposition, the party set to work presenting itself as a government in waiting. The polls seemed to confirm this status. The party’s popularity peaked at 36% in 2022 but this figure underwent a slow – and then rapid – decline. An unwillingness to adopt an anti-immigration position, when the issue was becoming politicised in Ireland, saw it lose support with some of its supporters.
This was confirmed in June at the local and European elections. The party’s 11.8% vote share was a very poor showing. Subsequent scandals around the party, on both sides of the border, further damaged its standing with the electorate.
Sinn Féin’s share of 19% of the first preference vote on Friday represents a partial recovery for the party. But it is, nonetheless, a steep decline (5.5 %) from their 2020 performance, leaving Sinn Féin with no realistic path to power.
Link :
Why Election 24 saw FF and FG avoid the incumbents’ curse
Unfortunately Sinn Féin was willing “to adopt an anti-immigration position” after some initial hesitation. Faced with rising racist agitation in deprived communities, the party pandered to reactionary sentiments. The main capitalist parties did the same – they discovered an issue that could be used to forward a right-wing agenda on a number of fronts. As a result, Sinn Féin lost support to its right – and to its left. The leaflet below, containing anti-immigrant messages, was used all over the state.
In the months leading up to these elections I was struck by messages from friends expressing alarm at this bad turn of events. A number of people said things like “I will not vote for Sinn Féin again”; “I would find it hard to give them a preference” and so on. I wondered if this trend was in any way representative – after all most people in my circle are further left than the general population! The general election proved these sentiments were not isolated.
Most political commentary on the general election notes setbacks suffered by scattered street-gang mini-Hitlers. Candidates like this – for example Malachy Steenson in the Dublin North Inner-City – emerged from the margins, and gained significant electoral support in the June 2024 local elections. They did not repeat their success in the November 2024 general election – they went backwards.
A more dangerous development occurred. A significant number of deputies from the ruling FFFG coalition, and Sinn Féin, promoted or dog-whistled at racist policies. At least 18 successful TD’s [Dáil Deputies] (gombeens) promote racist and misogynistic policies which have gone mainstream. These monsters are a throwback to a Catholic reactionary state that banned abortion, divorce and gay people – a state that threw women out of the workforce, that banished babies and single women to religious prisons run by the Catholic Church. Today’s far-right are disguised in the suits, ties, scarves and daily hairdos of Aontú, the Independent Ireland (II) Party, and a busload of independent TD’s begging for rewards from the new FFFG coalition : a mercs and perks brigade. Two additions to this gang in the new Dáil are Ken O’Flynn ( [II] Cork North-Central) and Gillian Toole [Independent gombeen racist] (Meath East). Others may come forward.
Nikita Hand Secures a Legal Victory over racist superstar kick-boxer Conor McGregor
During the election campaign a woman called Nikita Hand took a legal civil action, alleging rape, against an international celebrity, the kick-boxing superstar Conor McGregor. McGregor is closely associated with a number of mini-Hitler racists, some of whom were elected to Dublin council seats in June 2024. These included Philip Sutcliffe (Dublin South-Central) and Paddy Holohan (Dublin South-West). Most rape trials in Ireland are held behind closed doors, and the details are not widely broadcast.
This civil action was different : every day horrific evidence was headline news. Nikita Hand won her case.
This case damaged the mini-Hitler racist candidates –
An RTÉ News report contains the following information about Councillor Philip Sutcliffe :
In Dublin, Philip Sutcliffe, the head of Crumlin Boxing Club, was elected for the party. He boxed for Ireland at the Olympics in Moscow in 1980 and Los Angeles in 1984, and was elected in the Ballyfermot-Finglas LEA.
One of his most vocal supporters in the lead-up to election day was well-known publican and MMA fighter Conor McGregor. Cllr Sutcliffe has been McGregor’s boxing coach, travelling to fight camps internationally with McGregor, and featuring in social media posts.
On his Facebook page, where he posted regular updates during the campaign, Cllr Sutcliffe shared his support for Derek Blighe, a prominent right-wing nationalist anti-immigration protester and a candidate with the group ‘Ireland First’.
Mr Blighe regularly speaks about “plantations” and “unvettable fake refugees” at anti-immigration gatherings around the country. He has said the war in Ukraine is a “fake war publicised to encourage economic migrants to come to this country”.
“If you’re in this man’s area, vote [number] one for Derek,” Cllr Sutcliffe posted about Mr Blighe, who was running in the Ireland South European constituency and Fermoy Local Electoral Area against Independent Ireland candidates.
Cllr Sutcliffe also reposted video content from abroad about “refugee grooming gangs” while adding his own words: “Remember all this when voting, our government are letting the likes of their kind into Ireland.”
Cllr Sutcliffe was a first-time candidate and received 821 first preference votes, getting a seat on the 10th count.
Source : Independent Ireland party – a right-racist split from Fianna Fáil
During the campaign, as a result of the publicity over the McGregor case, the II party was forced to dump Sutcliffe, but his name still appeared on the ballot paper as an II candidate.
A sizeable protest march supporting Nikita Hand occurred after the verdict :
Paddy Holohan, McGregor’s sparring partner, polled very well in the June council elections, but did very badly in the General Election. He got 3.7% of No.1 votes, ranked 12th of 16 candidates, with no hope of a seat.
The Gerry Hutch Near-Miss in Dublin Central
A near-miss occurred in Dublin Central, the constituency of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald. Statewide Sinn Féin lost 5.5% of its vote-share compared with 2020.
In Dublin Central the drop was much higher : 12.36%. The party lost votes to its left and right. Many of those votes went to a wealthy businessman-gangster, Gerry Hutch, who advocated a sinister anti-immigrant policy.
Some discussion exists on whether Hutch was a racist candidate. He started his campaign making a few reasonable statements, but then came out with a definitive policy which left no room for doubt – Here is Hutch’s extreme racist campaign platform :
Link :
General Election November 29 2024 – Dublin Central Count
Hutch came fourth in the poll. On Saturday November 30 most election experts predicted Hutch would win a seat after seeing the first count – Hutch looked to be too far ahead of the chasing candidates below him. This news attracted a huge posse from the international media to the main Dublin election count centre on Sunday December 1. They were disappointed.
- A landslide “Vote Left, Transfer Left” grassroots heave appeared : against Hutch in favour of the nearest candidate below him, Marie Sherlock (Labour party).
The election guru Michael Marsh noted on RTÉ Radio 1 that a record had probably been set : never before, since all similar Irish elections from 1922, had so many voters transferred so heavily against one candidate.
As the counts were announced, Marsh was visibly astonished : the racists transferred heavily to Hutch : Steenson, Kelly, and Smyth of Aontú.
All other candidates (mainly on the left) transferred to each other – and overwhelmingly against Hutch :
| Counts | Hutch’s Share |
| No.5 (Votes of Daly) (Independents for Change) | 137 out of 1539 |
| No. 6 (Votes of Ó Ceannabháin) (People Before Profit) | 83 out of 2112 |
| No. 7 (Votes of Steenson [Racist]) | 1262 out of 2195 |
| No. 8 (Votes of Hourigan [Green party]) | 26 out of 2352 |
| No. 9 (Surplus of Gannon [Social Democrats]) | 18 out of 881 |
Left-wing voters transferred in huge numbers to the second elected candidate Gary Gannon (Social Democrats) and the eventual winner of the fourth seat, Marie Sherlock (Labour party). Transfers from the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil candidates went the same way.
Some may dispute this was a “Vote Left, Transfer Left” phenomenon on the grounds that FFFG votes went overwhelmingly to Sherlock in the last two counts. This is a false and stupid argument. People should grasp the fact that, in this constituency, FFFG voters preferred a Labour party candidate to a racist gangster. That is a sign of hope.
The transfer data in this constituency also shows that Green party voters chose other available left candidates ahead of Hutch, and ahead of the candidates from the two right-wing government coalition parties, FFFG. Comprehensive analysis of data like this in all 43 constituencies is awaited. That said, figures I have seen seem to show that “Vote Left, Transfer Left”, a call promoted by People Before Profit, operated in a large number of constituencies.
Dublin Central – Dirty Money in the constituency
A focus on dirty money in Dublin Central is a useful exercise.
Dirty Money has been a major issue in the constituency for a very long time. Criminal gangs operate in the North Inner City with huge amounts of money harvested from organised crime and the trade in illegal drugs.
It is unfair to single out Gerry Hutch – he did not appear out of nowhere.
Most of his support came from the North Inner City, a deprived working class area. In other parts of the constituency – Cabra and Stoneybatter – which are more settled, Hutch received much less support.
Hutch is probably an organ-grinder who got fed-up with the incompetent performances of monkeys in the Dáil.
From 1977 the constituency was represented by Bertie Ahern. The former Fianna Fáil leader and Taoiseach was recently allowed back into the party he left in 2012 – to avoid being expelled!
Securing expulsion from an organization more financially dodgy than the average Swiss Bank is an Olympian feat.
The state’s Mahon Tribunal, after years of well-publicised investigations, ruled Ahern was financially corrupt. This was a gold medal stellar performance : the dimmest dogs 🐶 in Irish ☘️ streets know the Fianna Fáil party has been corrupt since its foundation in 1926.
Ahern stepped down as Taoiseach in 2008 and as a TD in 2011. He resigned from Fianna Fáil in 2012 after the Mahon Tribunal published its final report. He made the move before leader Micheál Martin sought to expel him from the party.
The tribunal (officially called the Tribunal of Inquiry into Certain Planning Matters and Payments) found that Ahern did not truthfully account for payments of IR£165,000 made to accounts connected to him.
What Did the Mahon Tribunal Find About Bertie Ahern?
Most people believe these serious findings are only a tip of the iceberg.
The Dublin Central constituency was also represented by Michael Keating (Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats); less publicity attached to this case, but the known facts are startling :
Keating paid €250,000 to the Criminal Assets Bureau for unpaid tax. The Bureau had been investigating his affairs for more than three years. He was also named in a British court in 2000 as a partner in crime, in a £20m VAT fraud
Michael Keating – Criminal Assets Bureau
Then we come to Jonathan Dowdall : an informer who was a North Inner City Sinn Féin councillor. Dowdall resigned from the party in 2015. Dowdall admitted he was guilty of “facilitating the murder” of Kinahan gang leader David Byrne in a spectacular 2016 ambush on a boxing tournament in the Regency Hotel. The state recruited Dowdall in very strange circumstances to testify against Gerry Hutch. The informer’s testimony against Hutch was rejected in 2023 by the non-jury Special Criminal Court.
The informer Jonathan Dowdall
Better News For the Left – Paul Murphy, Dublin South-West
In Dublin South-West – Paul Murphy (People Before Profit [PBP]) secured a winning position (5th) on the first count and retained his seat comfortably. This was a very solid performance as
a) boundary changes made the constituency more difficult for the PBP
b) statewide, the fighting left was under a lot of pressure.
Link :
Irish General Election November 29 2024 – Dublin South-West Result
Overall the result was bad for the fighting left : Solidarity/PBP went in with 5 seats out of 166 – they came out with 3 seats out of 174. The soft left (Labour and the Social Democrats) did better : they went in with 13 seats and came out with 22.
Murphy has written a thoughtful assessment of the result, and makes useful proposals to guide the fighting left in the near to medium future :
The Social Democrats and Labour should not prop up Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. If they do, they will just be a new mudguard for their right-wing policies. They will deservedly face the same fate as the Green Party in the next election.
Irish General Election November 29 2024 result – Unite the Left
A strong left opposition is needed to what is going to be a right-wing FF/FG dominated government. That will be within the Dáil, but also crucially on the streets, in the communities and workplaces.
People Before Profit will continue to build ourselves as a principled eco-socialist party committed to people power as the way to change society. We will also continue to work with others in broad coalitions to mobilise people on housing, climate, disability justice, Palestine and many other issues.
We also want to work with others to form a left front to give people a clear governmental alternative to FF and FG rule at the next possible opportunity.
What will the new government look like?
FFFG has the luxury of choosing two add-ons. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have 86 out of 174 Dáil seats, only two seats short of a majority. We might see
1. A FFFG coalition absorbing gombeens and racists.
2. A FFFG coalition, absorbing gombeens and racists, and decorated by the moderate left (SDs and LP) SDLP!
Option 1 is best for the left : a weaker reactionary government against an opposition which has a left complexion. Option 2 would see either (or both of) the Social Democrats/Labour Party replace the Green Party from the last government. Like lemmings heading for a cliff, both parties would be signing their own death warrants.
A number of leading personalities from Labour (who were never associated with the left of the party) have openly opposed the coalition choice. One of them, Fergus Finlay, summed up a newspaper article on the subject with three words “Don’t Don’t Don’t”.
One amusing post-election drama was a late-night TV panel where Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (a Labour Party Dublin MEP) engaged positively with Kieran Allen (People Before Profit) about coalition and the left. The MEP also extended an olive branch to the hard left on the racism issue, and attacked Sinn Féin. Next morning on RTÉ Radio 1 the former LP leader Joan Burton talked up coalition options. Ó Ríordáin rang the programme, firmly rejected the Burton suicide choice, and headed down the left road.
It remains to be seen how the Labour Party and the Social Democrats jump.
One source made this perceptive comment :
I agree….the Social Democrats and the Labour Party must stay out. I’ve heard contradictory stuff. I get the feeling the Green Party example is terrifying them! Also they are thinking that if they can stay out they can claw away at the soft underbelly of Sinn Féin as the main opposition party and present themselves as a larger soft left force in 2029.
An Irish Times report two days before the voters went to the polls : “Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has indicated Sinn Féin voters should consider transferring to parties such as the Social Democrats and People Before Profit”
A few points :
a) SF voters were likely to do that anyway
b) SF’s calls for coalition with FFFG were looking increasingly ridiculous
c) SF leaders were worried that left-wing voters were repelled by the party’s racist dog-whistling, making them more reluctant to transfer to SF
Post-election : Despite FFFG making it clear they will not offer SF a coalition option, we read this : “Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald says it would be “bad practice” for Fianna Fáil to exclude Sinn Féin from potential government formation” BBC News Report.
The gombeens on the right are combining into parliamentary groups, and are begging for perks. They have learned lessons from 2016 when a minority Fine Gael government needed external support. At first most of the gombeens played “hard to get”. They claimed they had to consult their consciences, their supporters’ wishes had to be respected, and they had to think about the ultimate sacrifice before acting “in the national interest”. One of them, a USA born liberal Katherine Zappone cut to the chase. She publicly offered her services. This brazen queue-jumping worked like a charm. Less than a hour after the announcement to the mass media, Fine Gael sources suddenly discovered she was “ministerial” material. Zappone was guaranteed a cabinet seat. She was kicked out of the Dáil in the 2020 general election and returned to the USA.
In 2024 the gombeens are not making the same mistake.
The II party is being mentioned as a possible coalition partner of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in a new government. Live on TV, as the final seats were being filled, the party leader Michael Collins offered their 4 seats to the smirking lead Fianna Fáil negotiator, Jack Chambers TD. When the interviewer asked Collins had he discussed this with his new Dáil colleagues, the answer was No!
This shameless perk-begging display (Turbo-Charged Zapponery) suits FFFG at the moment. Party leaders Micheál Martin and Simon Harris will eventually call a halt. It brings the entire government system into popular disrepute.
The new Dáil meets on December 18. The new government will probably be announced in early 2025.
John Meehan December 9 2024
Sadleir and Keogh – The Pope’s Brass Band of the 1850’s – Forerunners of today’s gombeens?
William Keogh, leader of the Pope’s Brass Band “he and his fellow Catholic Irish MPs of the period, became known, as a result of their campaign, as ‘The Pope’s Brass Band’. Keogh also sided with the Tenant League, which fought for the rights of Irish tenant farmers in the 1850s. So far, so popular. Where did it all go wrong?
Keogh’s problems—at least in terms of his legacy—began when he agreed, in 1852, to be bound by a pledge taken by forty Irish MPs not to accept political office but instead to exploit the possibility of holding the balance of power in the House of Commons. However, Keogh, and the equally reviled John Sadleir, quickly jumped ship and accepted plum jobs in the administration of Lord Aberdeen. Keogh became Solicitor General for Ireland, and later Attorney General. He must have wondered, at times, was it worth it. His name, and that of Sadleir, became a by-word for political treachery.”
Tomás Ó Flatharta 
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