Is Tory General Election Extinction Coming to Britain on July 4 2024?
Extraordinary numbers are appearing from reliable opinion poll surveys in Britain.
MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) surveys (explanation here :
MRP explained) are much more accurate than traditional opinion polls – and still : we must remember these numbers are just a snapshot, the real thing might be significantly different on July 4 2024.
All of that said : Gamblegate (Tory insiders placing insider bets on the surprise date of the British general election) and Brexit neatly symbolise the self-created swamp of the 2020’s British Conservatives.
Jeremy Corbyn Might Retain Islington North
This MRP survey makes some interesting predictions for untypical constituencies. For example here is the
Islington North Prediction : Expelled ex Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn (independent) might defeat the official Sir Keir Starmer candidate.
Bad six county News for the Democratic Unionist party
The site, unlike many, includes six county predictions, for example :
Fermanagh and South Tyrone Prediction
Belfast East Prediction
Antrim South Prediction
None of that is good news for the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). The flat earth dinosaurs of the six counties are tipped to win North Antrim (home of Ian Paisley Junior MP) but the numbers are getting tight :
Antrim North Prediction
A long shot : tactical nationalist voting might cause the first Westminster Paisley election defeat since 1970 when the reverend Ian senior first won the seat.
Rishi Sunak to lose his seat?
Overall, Tory Extinction might include Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who may lose his seat :
Richmond and North Allerton Prediction
John Meehan June 27 2024
Tomás Ó Flatharta 
We would all love to see this, but the prediction also includes the far-right Reform Party winning a significant number of seats. This is very alarming, and more so because hidden behind many Tory losses would be the Reform Party eating away at their vote and allowing Labour in. The First-Past-the-Post system could be hiding a massive growth in the far Right.
Mark HB Findlay
Jun 27, 2024 at 1:59 pm
Hi Mark; I agree with your assessment. There is a week to go before polling day, and if the current estimates are accurate, the Reform Party might win a number of seats. Also worth watching is 1) the predicted number of seat gains for the Green Party 2) An apparently small but significant swing back towards the Scottish National party. In case readers think the Leftie Stats prediction is an outlier – it isn’t. Here is more data from Survation https://www.survation.com/conservatives-sink-to-18/ John Curtice is the go-to expert on Scotland, where Sir Keir Starmer’s lead over the SNP is narrow – the Brit-Nat Labour Party may be persuading Scots that even if the SNP is dodgy, Mr Swinney’s outfit is a better bet than Starmer’s union jack wavers : https://x.com/WhatScotsThink/status/1806195722099785972
tomasoflatharta
Jun 27, 2024 at 2:30 pm
Yes; Curtice is the expert that the BBC tends to use and I think he has credibility. If I was in Scotland I would certainly vote for the SNP (or in some areas the Scottish Greens) over Labour. The likely defeat for the SNP isn’t good news, and Starmer’s massive majority will likely allow him to do as he pleases, which isn’t good.
I’m lucky that here in Brighton Pavilion the Green Party is still the likely contender although Caroline Lucas has retired, and there has been a hard-line motoring lobby attack on the GP over their record on the council.
Mark HB Findlay
Jun 27, 2024 at 2:40 pm
Dear Mark, I expect you will like this Brighton prediction https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1806251122711261435
tomasoflatharta
Jun 27, 2024 at 2:45 pm
It certainly looks hopeful, but I’m sceptical that she could really win by that margin! My informal window poster monitoring shows the Greens in front but not that much.
Mark HB Findlay
Jun 27, 2024 at 3:18 pm